Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) is expected to approve a cash dividend of about 30 trillion won ($21 billion) at a board meeting on the 29th, timed with the release of its final third-quarter results. The company may also outline plans for an additional share buyback of 30 trillion won or more to fund stock compensation for employees. After signaling up to 110 trillion won in shareholder returns this year on the back of the artificial intelligence chip boom, and with profit and cash generation projected to surge from next year, analysts say Samsung is entering a "megacycle" of shareholder returns.
Samsung will finalize the size of the cash dividend and the payout per share when it releases final third-quarter results on the morning of the 29th, according to industry sources on the 27th.
At an Aug. 21 board meeting, Samsung approved a plan to carry out 90 trillion to 110 trillion won in shareholder returns this year and said it would pay about 30 trillion won in cash, including its regular third-quarter dividend. The full-year total is roughly five times the previous record of 20.3 trillion won set in 2020.
Samsung paid 372 won per share in the first quarter and 374 won in the second, for totals of about 2.44 trillion won and 2.45 trillion won. Combined first-half cash dividends came to about 4.9 trillion won. If the company approves a dividend of about 30 trillion won this time, cumulative cash dividends through the third quarter will reach about 34.9 trillion won. Compared with the previous quarterly payouts, the dividend paid in the third quarter alone would be about 12 times larger.
The key question is how the remaining funds will be allocated. Using 100 trillion won, the midpoint of the expected annual range, about 65.1 trillion won would remain after the dividends planned through the third quarter. Samsung plans to make a final decision at a board meeting in late January, when its 2026 full-year results are confirmed, on the mix of year-end dividends, special dividends and share buybacks and cancellations.
Also in focus at this earnings release is how many additional shares Samsung will buy for employee compensation, separate from its shareholder return funds. The company approved about 15 trillion won in buybacks on Aug. 21 and completed the open-market purchases by the 6th of this month, finishing more than a month ahead of the original Nov. 21 deadline.
Industry watchers say Samsung could buy back about 30 trillion won or more in additional shares to pay employee bonuses, separate from the 90 trillion to 110 trillion won in shareholder returns announced for this year. Whether Samsung offers a rough size or timeline for further fourth-quarter purchases during its earnings briefing on the 29th is another point of interest.
Buybacks for employee bonuses are distinct from purchases and cancellations aimed at shareholder returns. Still, open-market buying can temporarily reduce the free float, which may support the share price.
Behind Samsung's simultaneous push for large dividends and buybacks is a semiconductor supercycle expected to run through 2028. Market attention has already shifted to the prospect of expanded shareholder returns from 2027 onward.
According to financial data provider FnGuide, the consensus estimate for Samsung's operating profit rises about 48% from 369.3811 trillion won this year to 545.5523 trillion won next year. Revenue is forecast to grow from 705.522 trillion won to 925.5473 trillion won over the same period, with the 2028 revenue estimate at 1,040.5999 trillion won.
If those forecasts hold, Samsung's cash generation would expand sharply, increasing its capacity for shareholder returns. The company maintains a policy of returning 50% of free cash flow for 2024 through 2026. Market estimates put Samsung's free cash flow at 376.1985 trillion won in 2027 and 343.5223 trillion won in 2028, a two-year total of about 719.7 trillion won. Assuming the 50% policy remains in place, that would generate about 360 trillion won in shareholder return funds across 2027 and 2028.
Industry watchers are focused on the possibility that surging operating profit could push Samsung's policy beyond one-off special dividends toward a regular framework of large cash returns. "The earnings release on the 29th will reveal a dividend of around 30 trillion won and the outline of additional buyback plans," an industry official said. "But the method of further shareholder returns and future plans will most likely take shape early next year, when this year's full-year results are confirmed."