NFL Week 8 Thursday Night Football Best SGP Picks —Panthers At Packers

The Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers will get NFL Week 8 started on Thursday Night Football on the heels of Week 7 losses to division rivals. The host Packers are 3.5-point favorites, and the game’s total is 47.5 points.

In what will likely be a competitive contest, at least if it goes according to the betting expectations, Green Bay can lean on the fresh legs of their starting running back in a plus matchup on the ground. Their flourishing second-year wide receiver can also continue his breakout in Week 8. The final leg of the same-game parlay (SGP) is a receiving over for one of Carolina’s two big-bodied wideouts.

Thursday Night Football SGP Picks: Panthers at Packers

• Josh Jacobs 50+ Rushing Yards (-164)
• Matthew Golden 50+ Receiving Yards (-113)
• Tetairoa McMillan 60+ Receiving Yards (-181)

Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook: +248

Josh Jacobs (Green Bay Packers - RB): 50+ Rushing Yards

Josh Jacobs was removed from the NFL Commissioner’s Exempt List last week and handled 11 of Green Bay’s backfield’s 17 rush attempts (64.7%). He produced only 36 rushing yards but had a stellar 11.1% explosive run rate.

Jacobs could be sharper after shaking off the rust last week. He also doesn’t necessarily need to be sharper to hit 50-plus rushing yards in a cupcake matchup. The Panthers have surrendered NFL highs for rushing yards per game (126.8) and yards per carry (5.21) to running backs this season.

D’Andre Swift (124 rushing yards), Kyle Monangai (100 rushing yards), Bijan Robinson (72 rushing yards), Brian Robinson (51 rushing yards), Quinshon Judkins (70 rushing yards), Bucky Irving (106 rushing yards), Sean Tucker (52 rushing yards) and Kenny Gainwell (88 rushing yards) all reached at least 50 rushing yards against the Panthers this season. So, eight running backs have hit that threshold in six games, and three teams had multiple 50-yard rushers from their backfield against the Panthers. Jacobs can be the next running back to clear that mark.

Matthew Golden (Green Bay Packers - WR): 50+ Receiving Yards

Matthew Golden is having a sensational sophomore season, with an 83.4% snap share, 83.2% route participation rate, 24.7% target share, 0.28 targets per route run (TPRR), 28.1% first-read rate, 39.6% air yard share, 14.04-yard average depth of target (aDOT), 5.1 receptions per game, 77.1 receiving yards per game and 2.27 yards per route run (Y/RR).

Golden has reached at least 50 receiving yards in five of seven games this year, with a median of 95. The speedy youngster has aligned wide 76.1% of the time this year, which should allow him to take advantage of Carolina’s injury-depleted secondary.

Cornerbacks Mike Jackson and Jaycee Horn were placed on injured reserve (IR) on September 30. Since Week 4, the Panthers have allowed the eighth-most yards per target (9.02) to outside wide receivers. Carolina allowed 154.3 receiving yards per game to wideouts during that stretch.

This season, the Panthers have allowed eight wide receivers to reach 50 receiving yards against them in six games. Golden has a great opportunity to reach 50 receiving yards against an overmatched secondary.

Tetairoa McMillan (Carolina Panthers - WR): 60+ Receiving Yards

Tetairoa McMillan exploded for a season-high 192 receiving yards without Jalen Coker in Week 4, but he’s also reached at least 60 receiving yards in three of five games with Coker. In five games with Coker, T-Mac has recorded an 81.8% snap share, 86.9% route participation rate, 18.2% target share, 0.19 TPRR, 24.8% first-read rate, 27.3% air yard share, 11.83-yard aDOT, 4.4 receptions per game, 63.8 receiving yards per game and 1.72 Y/RR.

Green Bay’s coverage tendencies could benefit McMillan. The Packers have played zone 79.3% of the time (73.3% league average) and two-high coverage 66.3% of the time (50.6% league average) this season. McMillan has 0.21 TPRR and 2.31 Y/RR on 123 routes against zone in the games Coker was active and 0.17 TPRR and 2.24 Y/RR on 75 routes against two-high coverage.

Even pinching T-Mac’s production by removing his best game of the year because it was without Coker paints him in a favorable light to reach at least 60 receiving yards on Thursday Night Football this week.

This article was originally published on Forbes.com