Israelis headed to the polls on Tuesday in what Israeli media report to be one of the country's most dramatic elections in recent years, with the political future of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hanging in the balance.
The vote comes against the backdrop of Israel's genocidal war on Gaza, growing political divisions and uncertainty over whether Netanyahu's right-wing coalition or the opposition, also rightwing politically, can secure enough seats to form the next government.
But the outcome will depend on more than which party wins the most votes. Turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel, the mobilisation of ultra-Orthodox voters and the performance of smaller parties could all influence the balance of power in the 120-seat Knesset.
The counting process could also take longer than usual, with an unprecedented number of special ballots expected to delay a clear picture of the results until Wednesday afternoon.
The following are 10 factors that could shape the election results:
1. How high will voter turnout be?
Voter turnout is one of the most closely watched indicators in Israeli elections, particularly because it can affect the prospects of smaller parties seeking parliamentary representation.
Turnout in the previous election stood at around 70%, while estimates suggest it could rise to 75% this time.
A higher turnout increases the number of votes a party needs to cross the electoral threshold, making it more difficult for smaller parties to secure seats.
This could have significant implications for both Netanyahu's coalition and the opposition, particularly if parties aligned with either camp fail to enter parliament.
2. Which cities will turn out in the largest numbers?
Beyond the national turnout figure, the geographical distribution of voters could provide important clues about the election outcome.
Traditionally, peripheral towns and settlements such as Ofakim, Yeruham, Kiryat Shmona and Sderot have been strongholds of Netanyahu's Likud party.
By contrast, more liberal cities, including Herzliya, Ramat Hasharon, Tel Aviv and Kfar Saba, have been more closely associated with the opposition's so-called "change camp".
That camp includes prominent political figures with military and security backgrounds, such as Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett and Yair Golan, alongside Yair Lapid and Avigdor Lieberman.
Turnout figures in these areas could reveal where political enthusiasm is strongest and where voter apathy may affect the results.
3. Why could special ballots delay the results?
Around 650,000 special ballots, known as "double envelopes", have been registered for this election, an unprecedented figure.
These ballots are used by eligible voters who cannot cast their votes at polling stations near their registered addresses.
They include soldiers, diplomats, Foreign Ministry employees, people with disabilities and settlers evacuated from their homes.
The special counting procedures mean that a clearer picture of the election results may not emerge until Wednesday afternoon.
The unusually large number of these ballots could also affect the final distribution of seats, potentially pushing some smaller parties above the electoral threshold.
4. Could Palestinian voters determine the balance of power?
Turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel is expected to be one of the most consequential factors in the election.
The Joint List, led by Yousef Jabareen, and the United Arab List (Ra'am), led by Mansour Abbas, are running separately but have both launched extensive campaigns to encourage Palestinian citizens to vote.
Their performance could affect the prospects of both Netanyahu's coalition and the opposition.
If Arab parties secure more than 14 of the Knesset's 120 seats, analysts believe it would represent a significant achievement, while potentially making it harder for either political bloc to form a government.
However, concerns have emerged over the conduct of voting in Palestinian towns and cities. Several polling stations in Arab communities were delayed in opening on Tuesday morning.
According to sources speaking to The New Arab, some polling committee members claimed to have lost their way in Arab towns, while residents in certain areas alleged that the delays were deliberate.
Arab voters also complained about the absence of Arabic-language ballot papers at some polling stations, raising concerns about accessibility for citizens who are not proficient in Hebrew.
Another controversy concerns the presence of armed election observers.
On Monday, Israel's Supreme Court rejected a petition filed by the Haifa-based legal rights organisation Adalah and the Joint List seeking to prohibit observers from carrying weapons inside polling stations.
The petition followed announcements by Likud and Religious Zionism that they intended to deploy approximately 2,000 observers in Arab towns and mixed cities.
Petitioners warned that the presence of armed representatives from right-wing parties could intimidate Arab voters and provoke confrontations.
The Israeli authorities argued that there was no operational or security justification for banning weapons, saying armed observers would receive specific instructions limiting their use to self-defence.
The court declined to intervene in the decisions of the police and Central Elections Committee, saying the concerns raised had been considered in election security preparations.
Adalah criticised the ruling, arguing that it failed to address the potential intimidation of Arab voters by organised groups of armed right-wing activists.
5. Will young Israelis turn out in greater numbers?
Young voters could play a more prominent role in this election following a campaign heavily conducted on social media.
According to Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, political parties believe their online campaigns have encouraged greater engagement among younger Israelis, including those who previously showed little interest in electoral politics.
Celebrities and social media influencers have also joined the campaign, with several publicly revealing which parties they intend to support.
Their endorsements have generated debate among followers and helped bring political discussions to audiences that might otherwise have remained disengaged.
Party estimates suggest that younger voters could turn out in greater numbers than usual, potentially increasing their influence on the results.
6. How will ultra-Orthodox voters respond?
Israel's ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi, community has traditionally voted in large numbers, often following the guidance of religious leaders.
However, analysts and prominent figures within the community say voting patterns are particularly difficult to predict this year.
One major source of dissatisfaction is the government's failure to pass legislation exempting ultra-Orthodox men from military conscription during the current parliamentary term.
The emergence of new Haredi parties challenging established political organisations has also created uncertainty.
Meanwhile, United Torah Judaism, which represents sections of the ultra-Orthodox community, has undergone a leadership change, with Knesset member Yaakov Asher replacing veteran politician Moshe Gafni.
According to Yedioth Ahronoth, it remains unclear whether ultra-Orthodox voters will maintain their traditional party loyalties or use the election to register a protest vote.
Their decisions could have significant consequences for Netanyahu, whose governing coalitions have long relied on ultra-Orthodox parties.
7. Does winning the most seats guarantee power?
Not necessarily.
Although considerable attention is focused on which party will emerge as the largest in the Knesset, winning the most seats does not automatically give its leader the right to form a government.
Under Israel's political system, the president assigns the task of forming a government to the candidate considered most capable of assembling a governing coalition.
The president has considerable discretion in making that decision.
As a result, a party could finish first in the election but still find itself in opposition if another political leader can secure broader parliamentary support.
The ability to negotiate alliances and build a viable coalition may therefore prove more important than the number of seats won by any single party.
8. Why does the first mandate to form a government matter?
The candidate tasked with forming a government initially has 28 days to assemble a coalition.
That period can be extended by a further 14 days.
However, securing the first mandate is important for reasons beyond coalition negotiations.
According to the report, the candidate who receives the initial mandate also gains influence over the Knesset's Arrangements Committee, which plays a central role in parliamentary procedures before permanent committees are established.
Control over parliamentary arrangements can allow political factions to advance legislation and potentially replace the Knesset speaker.
This means the first candidate given the opportunity to form a government could influence parliamentary developments even if their coalition negotiations ultimately fail.
9. What role could the Elector app play?
Political parties are also relying on technology to mobilise supporters and monitor turnout throughout election day.
One tool attracting particular attention is Elector, a sophisticated voter-management application reportedly worth hundreds of thousands of shekels.
According to Israeli news website Ynet, the application contains information gathered about individuals who have declared support for particular parties or have been identified as potential supporters.
It allows campaign teams to monitor whether those voters have cast their ballots, providing parties with a clearer picture of their mobilisation efforts.
The system can help parties identify supporters who have not yet voted and focus their efforts on encouraging them to reach polling stations.
However, its use has raised questions about consent and the collection of personal information.
Central Elections Committee chairman Judge Noam Sohlberg expressed reservations about the application but ultimately permitted its use.
The effectiveness of parties' voter mobilisation operations could prove important in closely contested races.
10. Could the weather affect the result?
Even the weather could play a role in determining turnout.
Political parties are closely monitoring forecasts for rain in several Israeli cities on election day.
Rainfall could discourage undecided voters or those with little enthusiasm for participating from travelling to polling stations. This could be particularly significant for parties that depend on mobilising less committed supporters.