Let's be honest. Even the most die-hard of Virginia supporters would struggle to find a reason for optimism as the Cavaliers prepare to visit 14th-ranked Wake Forest this Saturday.
Mired in a two-game losing streak and winless away from home, the Cavaliers (4-4, 2-3 ACC) take on a rested Deacons team that is 6-1 (4-1 ACC) and has won four straight, the last three in convincing fashion. Virginia can't even hope the Deacons get caught looking ahead, because their next game is against Merrimack.
But today's assignment is to find three reasons the Cavaliers could win, along with three reasons they might not. So, at the risk of stretching credulity, let's dive in:
Three reasons Virginia can win
1. They've beaten Gio Lopez before: A year ago, the Cavaliers intercepted Lopez twice in a 17-16 overtime victory over North Carolina. Granted, Lopez was playing on an offensively challenged UNC team that struggled mightily in Bill Belichick's first season as coach.
Lopez is now surrounded by vastly superior personnel and has thrived in his new environment, with 17 touchdown passes and just one interception. The one caveat is that Wake's rushing offense is middle-of-the-pack in the ACC, so if the Cavaliers can finally muster an elusive pass rush, they might force Lopez into a rare mistake or two.
2. Wake's pass defense is merely average: The Deacons have just two interceptions and have allowed 10 touchdown passes through seven games. In their only loss this season, Miami's Darian Mensah was nearly perfect (30 for 34, three touchdowns). Beau Pribula doesn't have a Malachi Toney to throw to, but if he can avoid sacks and mistakes and use his tight ends effectively, Virginia can move the ball.
3. The Cavaliers have nothing to lose: Since the status quo isn't working, coach Tony Elliott couldn't be blamed for trying something new. He could replace Pribula with backup Eli Holstein (although he hasn't signaled that he will). Or the Cavaliers could unveil some trick plays on offense or exotic blitz packages that might catch the Deacons off guard.
Three reasons Virginia can't win
1. Wake is on an offensive roll: As mentioned, Lopez might be considered the ACC's best quarterback if not for Miami's Mensah. Receiver Carlos Hernandez (49 catches, 720 yards, four touchdowns) has been almost unstoppable. And the Deacons have scored at least 30 points in each of their six victories, with the last three (over Stanford, N.C. State and California) by an average margin of nearly 39 points.
The Cavaliers improved their subpar tackling last week against Duke, but suffered a fatal breakdown on the Devils' game-winning option pass. They hope to get starting safeties Brandyn Hillman and Ethan Minter back from injuries, but will that be enough?
2. Deacons' stingy run defense: Virginia's offense is predicated on running the ball and controlling the clock, with Jekail Middlebrook coming off a career-high 117 yards against Duke. But Wake ranks third in the ACC in stopping the run, allowing just 2.9 yards per carry. If the Cavaliers get behind the chains (as they have often lately), it could be a long afternoon.
3. Wake is rested and motivated: As previously mentioned, the Deacons are playing at home, coming off a bye week and have no reason to look past the Cavaliers. They're also in prime position to reach the ACC championship game for the first time in five years and earn a rematch with Miami if they win out. Don't expect a letdown.
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