Voters wait in line to cast their ballots at a polling station during Israel's general election in Tel Aviv, Israel Alamy Stock Photo
Must ReadIsraeli election
Journalist Hannah McCarthy reports on the Israeli election and how candidates have “exploited” anti-Palestinian sentiment.
Hannah McCarthy
I COVERED THE mass protests that spread across Israel soon after Benjamin Netanyahu took power for the sixth time at the end of 2022. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis took to the streets in early 2023 to protest measures that they believed would weaken the judiciary.
On the streets of Tel Aviv, I spoke to protesters from Israel’s left and centre-ground, a voting group that has shrunk over the last four years, as Israelis have moved to the right in the wake of the October 7th attack.
At the protest, the Israelis spoke of their fears of what would become of the country now that it was ruled by a coalition of right and far right parties led by Netanyahu and whether they should leave. A few small groups walking together held Palestinian flags but mostly the Israelis said the protest was not about the West Bank or Gaza or peace with the Palestinians.
I sometimes wonder what these Israelis would have done if they knew what would unfold over the next three years.
There are many ‘what ifs’ to consider. What if Naftali Bennett’s coalition had not collapsed in 2022? What if someone in the Israeli government had acted on the several intelligence sources that said Hamas was planning an attack? What if anyone other than Netanyahu had been prime minister for the past four years?
Writing in Haaretz this week, Anshel Pfeffer made the point that we never really know what event is going to be consequential in advance. Now, with Gaza in ruins, the Middle East simmering with conflict, and Israel at a crossroads both abroad and at home, it seems hard to imagine that the 2026 elections could be more consequential than the elections in 2022.
The fight for or against Netanyahu
Israel’s election today is largely a fight between the pro-Netanyahu bloc and the anti-Netanyahu bloc.
Aligned with far right nationalists and religious extremists, Netanyahu has traded heavily on Israeli security concerns, anti-Arab sentiment and his relationship with Trump. His campaign has made heavy and, at times, quite frankly absurd use of AI-generated images to hammer home these messages to the Israeli electorate; while recent reporting from CNN suggests that Netanyahu attempted to orchestrate an escalation with Iran on the eve of the election as part of an effort to boost his support among voters.
The anti-Netanyahu bloc encompasses Yair Lapid, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, leader of Beyachad; former military chief and leader of the Yashar Party, Gadi Eisenkot; Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party; and Avigdor Liberman, head of the Yisrael Beiteinu party.
The men’s offering (for they are all men) is largely that they aren’t Netanyahu and could bring about some sort of end to the chaos and endless war that has unfolded over the last four years. Or at least if there is more war, the ultra orthodox Jews, or Haredi, who are currently exempted from military service would have to fight too.
But the bloc is fragmented and each party leader entertains (perhaps not unreasonably) a degree of paranoia that the other will enter into a pact to govern with Netanyahu after the election.
None of the 34 parties running in today’s election is expected to win near the 61 seats needed for a majority in the Knesset, the Israeli parliament. According to final polls, the pro and anti-Netanyahu blocs could plausibly win around 50 seats each out of the Knesset’s 120 seats.
The Arab parties, two of which were disqualified from running by the election commission before a supreme court ruling allowed them to run, could secure up to 14 of the remaining parliamentary seats.
The anti-Netanyahu bloc would likely need the support or abstention of these Arab parties. Despite the parliamentary mathematics at play, several of the leaders of the anti-Netanyahu bloc have ruled out any cooperation with the Arab parties.
Perhaps that position will change after the elections, but it’s hard to escape the impression that the anti-Netanyahu bloc has created: that stopping Netanyahu is simply not worth the effort if it requires working with Palestinians in the Knesset.
Anti-Palestinian rhetoric
Erika Guevara Rosas, a senior director with Amnesty International said: “In recent months, electoral candidates have shamelessly exploited anti-Palestinian sentiment or even threatened to step up human rights violations and crimes under international law in a bid to score political points. Candidates have used dehumanizing rhetoric against Palestinians, promised to further entrench Israel’s illegal annexation measures in the occupied West Bank, and threatened further devastation of the occupied Gaza Strip.
“Candidates across the political spectrum also pushed for the disqualification of Sami Abu Shehadeh, Palestinian citizen of Israel and chairperson of the Tajammou’ (Balad) party, displaying utter disregard for the right to freedom of association, expression, and assembly.”
Abu Shehadeh dropped out of the elections earlier this month when the Israeli supreme court made it clear they would issue a ruling against him if he didn’t, despite lifting the disqualification against his party Balad. The case against Abu Shehadeh was based on allegations that he supported armed struggle against Israel, an allegation which he denies.
“Netanyahu and the right have a clear interest in disqualifying representatives of the Arab public, thereby reducing voter turnout among Arab citizens,” wrote Abu Shehadeh in Haaretz.
“Netanyahu and his emissaries know that if Arab citizens come in droves to polling stations, their chances of forming the next government will be significantly reduced, which is why they turned to the well-known trick of disqualifying their representatives.”
Since October 7th, Israeli Palestinians, or Arab citizens of Israel, have faced censorship and suspicion from Netanyahu’s government which has repeatedly treated them as an internal security threat rather than as citizens. In some cases, Israeli Palestinians were jailed for posting Arabic messages that said: ‘We pray for Gaza,’” says Hassan Jabareen, the general director for Adalah, a Palestinian human rights organisation based in Israel.
Israeli Palestinians are also experiencing a surge in organised crime and shootings in their communities, which they say is exacerbated by the Israeli police’s failure to investigate and prosecute crimes against Palestinians.
Despite their marginalisation, Palestinian citizens of Israel could determine the result in today’s elections.
Depending on the votes secured by the Arab Parties and the anti-Netanyahu bloc, Israel could start to slowly turn away from nationalism and religious extremism. Of course, we could also see more years of Netanyahu rule and almost certainly a resumption of strikes on Iran. Or the country could end up in a deadlock and simply face another round of election.
But even if there is a change of government, the pace of change is likely to be slow. Like Ireland, Israel’s parliamentary electoral system uses proportional representation which typically produces coalitions of parties. An Israeli coalition without the messianic extremism of Netanyahu’s current government would almost certainly operate cautiously and with a much greater degree of compromise required to keep all the parties onboard.
And whether or not he returns to the prime minister’s office for a seventh time, Netanyahu will continue to have an active and loyal voter base in Israel capable of exerting significant pressure on a new government (if there is one).
“I know Netanyahu – he will stop at nothing, no lie and no extreme measures, to remain in power,” said Eisenkot at a campaign event. “Anyone who thinks change is guaranteed is mistaken and misleading,” he continued. “Until the polling stations close on Tuesday, each and every one of us must act knowing that change is in danger. The responsibility for making it happen rests with each and every one of us.”