Russia May Seek NATO Rollback to 1997 in Ukraine Talks

Russia may use renewed peace talks on Ukraine to seek concessions that weaken NATO’s defenses in Europe, The Telegraph reported on Sunday, Oct. 25, citing diplomatic sources.

The sources said Moscow’s push to include European countries in the negotiations could be aimed at securing concessions on NATO expansion and the alliance’s military presence near Russia’s borders. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly described NATO’s enlargement as a “root cause” of the war.

One possible demand, according to the report, would be for NATO to return to its 1997 configuration, before former Soviet bloc countries began joining the alliance. Such a move could mean withdrawing NATO forces from Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Finland – all of which border Russia.

The report did not cite an official Russian proposal or say that a demand for a NATO rollback had been formally added to the agenda. It remains a scenario attributed to diplomatic sources, rather than an agreed negotiating position.

Moscow seeks a wider security discussion

Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov has argued that European countries should be included in discussions on ending the war, saying an agreement would be difficult to reach without them. Russian officials have also said future talks should address a broader European security framework.

Putin said last week that negotiations should focus on “ensur[ing] the security of Ukraine and Russia” after a final peace agreement. He added that discussions should also cover “the architecture of European security as a whole,” according to Reuters.

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It’s About Security, Stupid!

Call it peace, a ceasefire, or a stop to the killing. After more than four years of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s main concern can only be security.

Moscow has previously sought changes to NATO’s posture in Europe. In December 2021, Russia presented the US and NATO with draft security agreements that included demands to halt further NATO enlargement and limit military activity in countries that joined the alliance after May 1997. NATO rejected the demand that it closed its doors to new members, while saying it was open to talks on arms control and other security issues.

The Telegraph’s report suggests the Kremlin could again link its demands on NATO to negotiations over Ukraine. The outlet cited sources who said Putin may argue that concessions on the alliance’s military presence are necessary to resolve the conflict.

Trilateral talks may resume in November

The report comes as Ukraine, Russia, and the US discuss restarting negotiations at the technical level. Kremlin aide Ushakov said Russia was prepared to resume trilateral talks after its Nov. 4 National Unity Day holiday, describing the next meeting as preliminary and exploratory.

Kyiv has said it is ready to take part in talks but wants concrete steps, including a ceasefire and humanitarian measures. President Volodymyr Zelensky has also said Ukraine supports proposals for an energy ceasefire and an end to the war.

As the EU is seeking a role in the next round of discussions, EU officials have proposed a broader format that would include European representatives, while the Kremlin has said the talks currently being prepared are trilateral. The exact format and participants have not been confirmed.

Earlier, Kyiv Post reported that Russian officials and analysts have used the prospect of renewed talks to raise wider demands on European security, sanctions, and territory. Moscow’s stated focus on postwar security could therefore extend beyond Ukraine’s borders, though the reported NATO rollback demand has not been confirmed as an official condition.

That said, NATO membership remains a key point of disagreement. Ukraine has said it needs strong security guarantees to prevent future Russian attacks, while Putin has rejected Ukrainian membership in the alliance. Kyiv has also rejected Russia’s demands that it surrender territory as a condition for ending the war.

The talks’ agenda, any Russian proposal on NATO, and the degree of European participation remain unsettled.