Key Facts
- Brazil’s September producer price index is due at 9:00 a.m. BRT; economists expect 0.50% monthly and 2.70% annual.
- The Selic, Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, stands at 13.75% and traders still wager on cuts after October’s softer mid-month inflation data.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a crypto-based betting exchange, prices no change in Brazil’s November rate decision at 66.8% and a 25-point cut at 26.5% (27 Oct, 12:03 a.m. ET).
- Hypera, a Brazilian drugmaker (HYPE3), reports third-quarter results after the close, the day’s major earnings event on the B3 exchange.
- Yesterday the Ibovespa closed down 13.88% after a 30-minute trading halt, and the real lost 8.8% against the US dollar.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro – · Lula – (US$249 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 0.4% · Lula 99.6%
As of 25 October, 11:40 pm ET (03:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Today’s Focus
The Brazilian market opens Tuesday after a brutal Monday when the Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock index, fell sharply enough to trigger a 30-minute trading halt. Investors now turn to the domestic data calendar and the Copom rate path, with September producer prices due at 9:00 a.m. BRT.
A softer PPI print could reinforce bets that the central bank will cut the Selic from 13.75%, easing pressure on rate-sensitive stocks like banks and retailers. A surprise rise would complicate that wager and keep the real under strain against the dollar.
Corporate attention centres on Hypera’s third-quarter results, expected after the close, while listed real estate and infrastructure funds distribute income today. The damage from yesterday’s election shock remains, but the pre-market is about positioning for the next data point.
What matters today. Whether September PPI confirms disinflation and strengthens the market’s wager on lower Selic, or surprises higher and keeps Brazilian assets under pressure.
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Today’s Economic Events
9 am BRT
Brazil — Producer Price Index (Sep, MOM): consensus 0.5, previous 0.36
9 am BRT
Brazil — Producer Price Index (Sep, YOY): consensus 2.7, previous 2.53
9 am BRT
Mexico — Balance of Trade (Sep): consensus 0.9, previous 0.605
6 pm BRT
Chile — Interest Rate Decision (Oct): previous 4.5
4:45 am BRT
France — Consumer Confidence (Oct): consensus 84, previous 86
7:30 am BRT
Germany — 2-Year Schatz Auction: previous 3.1
9:30 am BRT
Canada — Wholesale Sales (Sep, MOM): consensus -0.1, previous -1.6
9:30 am BRT
United States — Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (Sep): consensus 0.4, previous 1.6
9:30 am BRT
United States — Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp (Sep, MOM): consensus 0.6, previous 0.3
9:30 am BRT
United States — Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (Sep, MOM): consensus 0, previous 0.1
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 176,608 | -13.88% |
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,677 | +0.70% |
| USD/BRL | 5.4154 | +8.79% |
Source: market close, 26 October 2026.
01 The setup in one read
Traders return to B3 on Tuesday with one domestic number on their minds: the September producer price index at 9:00 a.m. BRT. Economists expect a monthly rise of 0.50%, up from 0.36% in August, and an annual rate of 2.70% against 2.53% before.
That matters because a softer PPI would give the central bank room to cut the Selic, Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, currently 13.75%. Rate-sensitive names—banks, homebuilders, retailers—would be the first to react.
The political backdrop remains charged after Lula’s re-election triggered a selloff on Monday. The Treasury also cancelled this week’s auctions of inflation-linked and fixed-rate bonds, a sign of how fast market conditions deteriorated.
The forward setup is not about relitigating Monday’s close but about whether the incoming data and corporate news can stabilise expectations. Hypera’s third-quarter results and a series of fund distributions give traders concrete events to trade.
Assessment — A fragile open hangs on PPI MEDIUM
The evidence points to a market still absorbing a political shock, with the Treasury cancelling bond auctions and local investors bracing for continued volatility. A September PPI at or below the 0.50% monthly forecast would normally support rate-cut hopes, but the election result has clouded the fiscal outlook and may limit any relief rally. The variable to watch is whether the PPI print is soft enough to revive Selic cut bets despite fiscal fears.
02 Where Brazil is set to open
| Instrument | Last close | Indicated | Watch today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa — Brazil’s benchmark share index | — | — | September PPI at 9:00 a.m. BRT; rate-sensitive stocks still tied to the Selic debate |
| USD/BRL — reais per US dollar | — | — | PPI and global risk appetite; the Selic path drives positioning |
The board below shows the full market picture, but the pre-market focus is on the real and the Ibovespa futures. No reliable pre-market quote was available in the supplied sources, so the first half-hour of trading will establish the tone.
The dollar-real pair remains the gauge for foreign investors after Monday’s sharp move. A softer PPI could ease pressure on the real by supporting rate-cut expectations, while a hot print would keep the currency defensive.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live BoardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board.
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
B3 · pre-open setup
Oct 27, 2026 · 01:38
Ibovespa · benchmark
176,608.23 -13.88%
L 167,142day rangeH 168,310
+21.85% over 12 months
Market breadth · 33 names
52% advancing
17 ▲ advancing16 declining ▼
Currencies, rates & key inputs
USD / BRL
5.16
+0.01%
EUR / BRL
5.95
+1.01%
Selic rate
14.00%
·
Brent crude
88.88
-0.03%
Iron ore
161.91
·
Sector heatmap · average move today
Materials
+1.58%
SUZB3, KLABIN
Mining
+1.16%
VALE3, CSNA3, GGBR4
Other
+0.76%
BRENT, WTI, IRON ORE, GOLD
Industrials
+0.20%
WEGE3, RENT3
Financials
-0.10%
ITUB4, BBDC4, BBAS3, B3SA3
Energy
-0.12%
PETR4, PRIO3
Consumer Staples
-0.25%
SLCE3, ABEV3
Utilities
-1.38%
ENEV3
Consumer Disc.
-1.98%
AZZA3, LREN3
Latin America scoreboard
IndexLastTodayStrength
IbovespaBrazil 176,608.23 -13.88%
S&P/BMV IPCMexico 69,647.80 -0.33%
S&P IPSAChile 10,575.59 -1.59%
S&P MERVALArgentina 3,017,221 —
MSCI COLCAPColombia 2,505.04 -1.38%
BVL S&P PerúPeru 57,093.72 +0.04%
Full instrument board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,608.23 | -13.88% | +21.85% | 205,082.56 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
Largest moves today
IBOV 176,608.23 -13.88%
CORN 480.50 +10.02%
COFFEE 317.25 -5.51%
WHEAT 655.00 +3.93%
BEEF 223.60 -3.93%
SOY 1,184 +3.20%
COCOA 5,719 +3.18%
CATTLE 339.10 -3.16%
The session read
The Ibovespa eased 13.88%, with breadth positive — 17 of 33 names higher. Materials led, while Consumer Disc. lagged.
03 On the B3 radar today — PPI, Hypera earnings, fund distributions
| Item | When | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil September PPI | 9:00 a.m. BRT | Tests whether disinflation supports Selic cuts; forecast 0.50% m/m and 2.70% y/y |
| Hypera (HYPE3) Q3 results | After market close — | Day’s major B3 earnings release; guidance and cash flow may move the stock |
| Copom/Selic pricing | — | Selic at 13.75%; October IPCA-15 inflation of 0.32% (forecast 0.43%) supports rate-cut bets; Polymarket gives a 25-point cut 26.5% in November |
| Fund distributions: APXM11, BTAL11, BTRU11, EQIR11, EXES11, HBCR11, INRD11, LRDI11, MMPD11, TJKB11 | 27 October | Payment dates for listed funds; income investors watch these flows |
The 9:00 a.m. BRT PPI release is the day’s macro anchor. Forecasts of 0.50% monthly and 2.70% annually compare with 0.36% and 2.53% before, so a print below forecast would feed disinflation hopes, while the market’s reaction will also depend on fiscal concerns.
Hypera’s third-quarter results, due after the close, give investors a read on Brazilian consumer spending and healthcare demand. The pharmaceutical company’s margins and cash conversion will be scrutinised after a volatile equity session.
Ten listed funds pay distributions today, a routine but important event for income-focused investors. These flows can support specific tickers even if the broader market remains choppy.
04 Copom and the macro backdrop
The central bank’s Selic rate stands at 13.75%, and the market is trying to price the next move. The IPCA-15, a mid-month inflation gauge, rose 0.32% in October against a 0.43% forecast (previous 0.70%), and the annual rate reached 4.62% against 4.73% expected (previous 4.47%). Brazil’s current account deficit for September was US$5.1 billion, wider than the US$4.5 billion forecast. That has encouraged bets on cuts, but the election result has introduced a new variable: fiscal risk.
Lula’s re-election triggered a sharp repricing of Brazilian assets. The Treasury cancelled its inflation-linked bond auction on Tuesday and its fixed-rate auction on Thursday, while keeping the auction of bonds that track the Selic.
The shift matters for today’s open: exporters and dollar earners may be more resilient, while banks, retailers and construction names remain exposed to the Selic path. The PPI print will either strengthen or weaken the rate-cut narrative.
Foreign investors are watching the real closely. A softer PPI could stabilise the currency by reinforcing the case for lower rates, but any sign that inflation is not cooling fast enough would compound Monday’s damage.
05 Corporate stories to watch today
Hypera (HYPE3) is the day’s main corporate event, with third-quarter results expected after the close. The pharmaceutical company’s sales growth, margins and cash flow will be parsed for signs of consumer resilience in a slowing economy.
The sell-off shifts attention to exporters and companies with dollar revenues. Names like Vale and paper producers could benefit from the stronger dollar, while domestic-focused names face the fiscal and rate overhang.
Fund distribution payments today include several real estate and infrastructure funds, which can provide a steady bid for those tickers. Investors searching for income may find these flows attractive amid market volatility.
The corporate calendar remains light beyond Hypera, but the aftermath of Monday’s circuit breaker means traders will reassess positions across banks, state-owned firms and consumer names. Any signs of stability in the political transition will matter more than individual earnings.
06 The levels to watch at the open
The first hour of trading will be about whether Monday’s panic extends or stabilises. The Ibovespa’s reaction to the PPI print at 9:00 a.m. BRT will set the tone for the afternoon, with rate-sensitive stocks leading any bounce or further decline.
The real’s level against the dollar is the key external signal. A move back toward the stronger end of the recent range would suggest investors are rebuilding confidence in the Selic path; a further slide would signal deeper fiscal concerns. These large caps will again set the direction at the open.
The risk is that a hot PPI print compounds the political shock and pushes the Ibovespa back toward the lower end of its range. A soft print, by contrast, could offer a temporary reprieve for banks, retailers and homebuilders.
07 What to watch
- September PPI at 9:00 a.m. BRT: A soft print would support Selic cut bets and stabilise rate-sensitive stocks; a hot print would deepen the selloff
- Hypera Q3 results: Guidance and margins will signal consumer health and may move HYPE3 and peers
- Bond auctions: The Treasury cancelled two sales this week; watch whether it steps in to buy bonds back and calm yields
- USD/BRL at the open: The real’s direction indicates whether foreign capital is returning or still fleeing after the election shock
Background: Soybean Fund Falls 1.23% as Wheat Fund Drops 1.27%.
Background: Oil Fund Falls 1.95% as Petrobras Plunges 13.99%.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, lets traders bet real money on outcomes, and its prices read as implied probabilities. On Brazil’s central bank decision in November, traders price no change at 66.8%, a 25-basis-point cut at 26.5% and a 25-basis-point rise at 3.4%. About US$104,469 has been traded on that market (read 27 October 2026, 12:03 a.m. ET).
For December, the same venue prices no change at 45.0% and a 25-point cut at 27.0%, with about US$46,014 traded. These are bets, not polls, and not forecasts by the central bank.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Selic and why does it matter for stocks?
The Selic is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate set by the central bank. Lower rates make borrowing cheaper and typically boost banks, retailers and homebuilders, while higher rates attract foreign capital but hurt domestic growth.
What happened on Monday with the circuit breaker?
The Ibovespa fell more than 10%, which triggered a 30-minute trading halt, after Lula’s re-election, and closed down 13.88%. The market is now trying to price fiscal risks and the future path of interest rates.
What is the PPI and why is it important today?
The producer price index measures wholesale inflation. Today’s September data will show whether prices are cooling fast enough to justify cutting the Selic from 13.75%.
Which stocks are most exposed to the Selic path?
Banks like Itaú, Bradesco and Banco do Brasil, plus retailers and homebuilders, are most sensitive to interest rates. Exporters and dollar earners like Vale are less affected.
Market data: RT. Economic data: RT economic calendar (RT), Banco Central do Brasil.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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