Kalshi traders are putting 95% odds on Anthropic announcing an IPO before 2027, and the AI company’s latest paperwork gives them a pretty good reason to watch the calendar.
As Cryptopolitan reported earlier, Anthropic released its Form S-1 on Monday, laying out plans to list on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.
Anthropic eyes a November debut as traders bet on timing
According to The Wall Street Journal, Anthropic has set its target to begin trading within the week of November 16.
Kalshi estimates that it will have only a 14% probability of achieving that milestone sooner. On Polymarket, however, there is a 69% probability that the share will be traded before November 20.
These figures do not track exactly the same thing. Kalshi defines an IPO announcement from the moment the SEC has approved the S-1, the offer is priced, or an exchange has assigned a ticker.
There’s still no proposed price per share. Expectations for the company’s value, though, are enormous: $2 trillion or more. That would make this the biggest stock market listing ever, assuming investors are willing to pay up. Anthropic’s financial performance will have plenty to say about that.
Anthropic has a huge cash pile and some unusual IPO warnings
While Anthropic continues to make losses, the company doesn’t lack funding. Its statement reveals $131.6 billion in working capital, which refers to the amount that the company can use to fund its operations. This is higher than the combined cash reserves of Meta and Google.
The customer base is also an important aspect to consider. Only 250 large companies each contributed $10 million to Anthropic last year. It was a significant investment on their part, but that makes them vulnerable as well.
Then come the risk disclosures, and these aren’t your standard warnings about competition or rising costs.
Anthropic said: “Sufficiently advanced AI systems could, if not developed, deployed, and operated with appropriate safeguards, oversight, and security measures, pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity.”
The company also described a hacking campaign from less than a year ago. It believes a China-sponsored group manipulated Claude to break into technology businesses, banks, chemical manufacturers, and government agencies.
But for Anthropic to be successful in its business model, it needs to develop more advanced and capable AI models. It is an uncomfortable balance for a company whose product also creates the problem it describes.
Anthropic said: “Achieving our mission means the world gains the enormous benefits of frontier AI while mitigating the most significant risks.”
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