The benefits — and perils — of expanding the map: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Sahil Kapur digs into the expectations game for the Senate with a week to go before the election. Plus, Megan Brand explores how presidential hopefuls are using the midterms as a 2028 testing ground.

— Adam Wollner

The benefits — and perils — of expanding the map

Analysis by Sahil Kapur

Days after Democrats’ top Senate super PAC made an unexpected investment of $1.3 million in ruby red Mississippi, the Republican counterpart matched with a $1.4 million ad campaign of its own, attacking Democratic challenger Scott Colom.

The Mississippi race should be nowhere close to being competitive. The last Democrat the state sent to the Senate was a longtime segregationist in 1982. And two years ago, Republicans won Mississippi at the presidential and Senate level by more than 20 points.

And yet, Democrats’ late play to boost Colom, a Black lawyer and prosecutor, has prompted Republicans to put resources into protecting the state. President Donald Trump is even set to host a rally tonight in Mississippi, just eight days before the election, to boost GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.

In a blue-leaning environment where Republicans already have their hands full defending states Trump won by 10-20 points — like Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Kansas — they could do without even a mild headache in Mississippi.

Still, it’s a double-edged sword for Democrats. While Republicans are devoting precious time and money to once-safe terrain that could be used in more evenly divided battlegrounds, Democrats’ late red-state blitz raises expectations for them to flip the Senate to considerable heights. And some strategists fear it’ll cause allies to lose sight of the enormity of the task.

Imagine this scenario: Democrats successfully defend all their Senate seats, including in swing states like Michigan and Georgia; they flip North Carolina; they defeat Sen. Susan Collins in Maine after 30 years of trying; and they finally capture their white whale by turning Texas blue. But the wave stops there, with Republicans holding the rest of their turf.That would give Democrats 50 seats, one shy of a majority, and the GOP would retain control of the Senate with Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote.

By historical standards, that scenario would mark a successful cycle for Democrats (particularly if they win control of the House as well). Yet falling short of a Senate majority and the power to restrain Trump’s agenda and personnel could create the perception of failure and spark recriminations within the party.

In the final stretch, some Democrats are trying to temper expectations.

“Donald Trump won some of these states by 20 points, and a week out, they’re close. Nobody expected that, least of all Republicans,” said a Democratic strategist. “It tells you how far out of touch they are with what people are dealing with every day. But nothing’s decided yet. In races this close, every single vote counts, and we need to keep focused on the mission of winning.”

Meanwhile, some Republicans are content to be painted as underdogs as perceptions of an impending Democratic wave rise.

“The expectations are what they’ve set them at. If they fail, that’s on them for hyping too much up,” said one GOP strategist.

The strategist, like the others quoted here, is involved in the 2026 battle for the Senate and was granted anonymity to speak candidly.

Of course, the shift in expectations isn’t entirely on Democrats, with polls and models from independent data analysts increasingly pointing in their direction.

A second Republican strategist said the fringe left and some less-than-reliable polls “have really pushed this expected wave to heights we have not seen in quite some time.”

“Ask Jamie Harrison, Amy McGrath, or Beto O’Rourke what happens when unreal expectations crash into reality,” the strategist added. “The D next to these candidates’ names is going to end up standing for disappointment.”

Shadow 2028 primary kicks into high gear in the final stretch of the midterms

By Megan Brand

South Carolina isn’t home to a top midterm battleground race. But more than a dozen high-profile Democrats from all over the country have made stops ahead of Election Day in a state that will soon be at the center of the party’s political universe.

South Carolina is one of several early primary states where potential presidential candidates are flocking ahead of the midterm elections. No major politician has declared a presidential run yet, and high-profile potential candidates have insisted that their sights are set solely on the midterms.

Still, the cross-country travel by notable politicians amounts to a shadow 2028 primary, setting the tone for the real thing, which will likely kick into gear shortly after the midterms.

“2026 is a great laboratory for them to get out there and start loosening up their muscles, starting to stretch out, because the ‘28 campaign starts the day after the election,” said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean.

While South Carolina is a hotspot for Democrats potentially eyeing the Oval Office, many of the potential candidates aren’t campaigning alongside Democratic Senate candidate Annie Andrews. It would be “actively unhelpful” for many Democrats to campaign with Andrews in such a red state, said Jesse Lehrich, a Democratic strategist.

Several aides to potential 2028 candidates told NBC News that those Democrats were traveling to states where they felt they could be helpful with mobilizing voters and reaching people in places candidates traditionally do not travel.

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That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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