There is a lot more at stake than trying to boost the public purse in the UK’s budget statement.
Westminster is increasingly convinced that, should Labour maintain its lead in the polls after John Healey delivers his autumn budget, Andy Burnham will call a general election.
In theory, he does not need to do so until 2029, but a Prime Minister who was not elected on a popular mandate is anxious to get on and stamp his own mark, and this may be the best moment to strike.
No one knows what the future holds, but the omens for the UK and its economy are not good. The country is heading into winter with a health service already stretched, household energy prices due to rise in January because of the Iran war, inflation creeping upwards and interest rates, and therefore the cost of borrowing, likely to climb.
The trade unions are flexing their muscles and making noises about seeking pay increases for their members, which always presents a Labour, union-supporting PM with a dilemma. Better to press the button and force an election sooner rather than later.
Certainly, the clues are stacking up. The Lib Dems are said to have tried to source plastic placards, only to be refused because the Labour Party had placed a large order. In the City, the bets are piling in on an earlier date, and despite not being at the heart of political decision-making, the speculators have an uncanny habit of reading the runes correctly.
What they are scrutinising is the opinion polling. Currently, Ipsos puts Labour eight points ahead of the Tories, on 32 per cent. A poll tracker has Labour averaging 29 per cent, the Tories 23 per cent and Reform 21 per cent. It was reported in August that a senior Labour strategist had said they would push for a general election if there was "a steady five-to-eight-point lead".
Other factors. The Tories are enjoying something of a resurgence under Kemi Badenoch. Admittedly they start from a low base – they were almost wiped out by Keir Starmer last time – but there is no doubt they’ve rediscovered their mojo.
In particular, they see London and the south of England as areas where they can make inroads. They are on natural turf, and the longer Mr Burnham pushes the north at the expense of the south - an inevitable consequence of championing his own region due to the absence of an unlimited amount of cash, and the consequent fact that something must give – the more southerners will turn against him. Should that lavishing on the north be accompanied by tax reforms that those in the south feel are aimed at them, then the Tories could be on a roll.
Mr Burnham is determined to make a fist of establishing closer relations with the EU, and possibly even seeking full readmission. It won’t be lost on him or his advisers that while rapprochement makes perfect sense economically, it could come at the cost of forfeiting Labour seats that were pro-Brexit. The MPs in those constituencies are already raising the alarm, saying he risks providing a fillip to Reform.
He may regard a national poll, in which EU re-entry is to the fore, as negating the need for another referendum on the issue. As a way of avoiding a repeat of the scarring Brexit battle, that thinking has merit. Whether it is acceptable to EU leaders who will want proof that the UK's change of attitude is for real and is sustainable, is not clear. But a healthy majority, based in part on stronger EU ties, would provide Mr Burnham with the safety blanket to pursue talks with Brussels.
The EU featured heavily in Mr Burnham’s Labour conference speech. It was his set-piece that has sent Westminster into overdrive.
Yes, prior to the party gathering, he made a point of ruling out an early election. However, he then went on to set out his vision for the UK, not for the year ahead but far into the future. Indeed, it was noticeable he paid such little attention to the present, barely touching on current domestic and foreign issues. It was, in all but name, Labour’s next manifesto.
Almost everything he announced, from greater devolution to reconnecting with the EU to a new National Care Service, was not for today or the coming months. All of them will take years to finesse and process. It was obvious too that this is where his interest really lies. Sure, as Prime Minister he is obliged to deal with the day-to-day, but as someone who dreamt long and hard about moving into 10 Downing Street, there was no mistaking his motivation and focus.
There are caveats against an early poll. Labour has not been performing well in Scotland, although the decision to approve exploitation of the Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea was favourably received there. Whether he gives the nod to extracting oil from the Rosebank field remains to be seen, but that would also lift his party’s Scottish prospects.
Another was that Mr Starmer’s surprise landslide will not be repeated and Labour is bound to lose MPs, regardless of how the government and economy are performing. The scale of Mr Starmer’s triumph was seen as a one-off, and there would be casualties. They were thought to be holding Mr Burnham back – while he might win, his majority would be lower than his predecessor’s, so weakening his authority.
The feeling in Mr Burnham's camp is that his personal rating is high. They’ve been taken aback by just how well he has gone down, aided by a non-stop flow of TikTok videos and the belief his "man of the people" style is succeeding. There may be some losses, but they are to be expected, given the scale of Mr Starmer’s victory and the Tory capitulation. Mr Burnham would most probably achieve the mandate he seeks.
There is one more thought weighing heavily, which is the old Harold Macmillan quote of "events, dear boy, events" when asked for the greatest challenge facing a statesman. So far, Mr Burnham has made some missteps, but nothing serious. Crucially, he managed to handle Donald Trump successfully – as did Mr Starmer at first, only for the US President to turn and undermine him.
Best to go now rather than delay. Seared on Labour minds, too, is the example of Gordon Brown, who, like Mr Burnham, became prime minister without a general election. Mr Brown was also doing well in the polls, but instead of calling an election he procrastinated. By the time he did flick the switch, it was too late, and he lost.
As for Mr Burnham ruling out an early election on the eve of the conference: well, politicians can always U-turn, can’t they? So Mr Healey may well be presaging the next UK general election as he outlines his spending and revenue-raising plans.