- Introduction
- Iran: "Do I make a deal with them or do I finish them off?"
- The Houthi terrorist organisation bombs the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on the day Riyadh airport reopens
- Israel votes tomorrow: Eisenkot in the lead, Trump with Netanyahu
- Sunday at the polls: Vučić falls in Serbia, Lula prevails in Brazil, and Russia punishes Ukraine
- Media Rack
- Editorial Commentary
Introduction
Trump summarised it on Sunday in a single sentence: "Do I make a deal with them or do I finish them off? That is the only question." In the morning he had ruled out a strike "today"; by the afternoon he presented himself as a man of the "long term".
In the early hours, CNN (Cable News Network) reveals that deployed US forces can launch major operations against Iran "within 96 hours" of receiving the order, likely after the 3 November legislative elections. Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Sunday.
Today, the Minister of Defence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Prince Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani Army Chief Marshal Asim Munir, and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin arrive to meet Mohsen Rezaei, the strongman of the oligarchic-jihadist regime's security apparatus. The official reason, according to his deputy, is to "congratulate" him on his appointment.
Meanwhile, the Houthi terrorist proxy of Tehran launched twelve missiles and two drones against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on Sunday, according to Turkish agency Anadolu, the very day Riyadh's King Khalid Airport reopened two terminals after being closed for fifteen days.
The terrorists responded by declaring it a "military target", and in the early hours the coalition shot down another ballistic missile launched at the capital. In Taiz, the Houthis are advancing on Jabal Sabr and over half of the hospitals are out of service.
Israel votes tomorrow. The latest polls give Gadi Eisenkot the lead, Trump openly asks for votes for Netanyahu, and Netanyahu warns Iran: "Do not put us to the test." In Jordan, the three suspected perpetrators of the massacre of Christians in a church in Karak have been arrested. Sunday was, furthermore, a day of continental-scale elections.
Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat in Serbia to the Student List, Bulgaria is heading to a run-off with a clear Russian undertone, and Lula da Silva won a fourth term in Brazil against all odds with 51.79% against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro, who does not recognise the result.
Russia continued attacking Ukraine, and Zelenskyy is demanding the unblocking of Patriot systems already paid for by Europeans. Pope Leo XIV, convalescing from his 13 October operation, recited the Angelus and will not travel to Assisi tomorrow.
Iran: "Do I make a deal with them or do I finish them off?"
Facts
Trump shifted from threat to patience on Sunday without changing his tone. He posed the dilemma to Fox News: "Do I make a deal with them or do I finish them off?" Before flying to Michigan, he told reporters: "No. There will be no attack today." In Port Huron, speaking to local TV station FOX 2 Detroit, he added: "I am going to make a great deal. I am a long-term person, not a short-term person." He insisted the war will not end until the United States is certain Tehran lacks nuclear capability: "Let them have a nuclear weapon, because they'll use it" (Israel National News). He reiterated that the United States controls the Strait of Hormuz and lashed out once more against the 2015 nuclear agreement.
CNN published in the early hours, citing two US officials, that forces deployed in the region can launch new operations, "potentially on a large scale", "within 96 hours" of receiving the order, likely after 3 November. They would go beyond "mowing the lawn", as the military calls limited maintenance strikes. The CENTCOM (United States Central Command) target list includes energy infrastructure as well as military and nuclear facilities.
According to those sources, the order is most likely to come after 3 November, and Israel reportedly accepted the postponement because it needs US support in air defence. A 96-hour window is not a technical detail: it means bombers, tanker aircraft, missile-launching vessels, and precision munitions are already in position and the decision is exclusively political.
That Israel agrees to wait reveals, furthermore, the exhaustion of its own interceptors after eight months of war and its reliance on US batteries. CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper flew over the strait on Sunday: over 3,000 merchant vessels have crossed it in six months with US military backing. Brent dipped to $115.16 in the early hours, after surpassing $117 on Friday (Reuters).
The diplomatic track remains open. Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Sunday in a coordinated effort with Washington, according to an official cited by Reuters. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told a German public broadcaster that Iran "has never abandoned the negotiating table", but accused Washington of demanding "complete surrender". Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf asked Iranians to reduce gas consumption by at least 10% amid winter shortages, in exchange for bank account payouts: the involuntary confession of a country that, possessing the world's second-largest gas reserves after Russia, cannot heat its homes.
The most striking development comes today. Khalid bin Salman, Asim Munir, and Ibrahim Kalin are meeting in Tehran with Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council since August. His deputy, Ali Bagheri Kani, explained that the primary goal is to "congratulate" Rezaei on his appointment and secondarily discuss regional security "without foreign interference". The three countries signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement in August, a mutual defence pact between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. Saudi spokesperson Rayed Krimly presents the visit as support for de-escalation and Qatari-Pakistani mediation, whilst the Iranian ambassador in Islamabad asserts Tehran will "study" the pact before deciding whether to endorse it.
Implications
“There will be no attack today” is not a promise: it is confirmation that an attack is on the table and that the calendar is dictated by the midterms. The strategy of outrage seeks to force Tehran to negotiate with a visible gun, but the regime already knows the script and knows that, until 3 November, the risk of a major operation is low. Washington holds dominance in the air and at sea, but still lacks an interlocutor capable of keeping commitments. What should worry the White House is not Ghalibaf's rhetoric, but his call to save gas: a regime unable to heat its population in winter is a fragile regime, and fragility without a day-after plan is the shortest path to chaos.
The visit to Rezaei is the day's headline story. What the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey acknowledge by travelling to Tehran is where real power resides. They are not visiting President Masoud Pezeshkian, but Mohsen Rezaei, who shares with General Ahmad Vahidi, Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC, an Interpol Red Notice for the 1994 AMIA Jewish community centre bombing in Buenos Aires, which killed 85 people. Both benefit from permanent tension.
That Riyadh negotiates with the patron of its bombardier is understandable: its airports and oil are in the line of fire whilst Washington limits itself to updating travel warnings for over a dozen regional countries. Yet the signal is unsettling. Tehran, which will "study" the Mecca Pact, attempts something more ambitious than dividing neighbours: turning an alliance conceived to defend against it into a regional forum of which it forms part, excluding the United States and Israel. Middle powers are beginning to manage Gulf security on their own terms and with the regime's favourite language: "without foreign interference".
For Spain, the risk is not abstract. If Washington gives the order after 3 November, Rota and Morón will form part, one way or another, of the allied apparatus, and the regime has already proclaimed it considers any base used against its territory a legitimate target. A Government that in March denied its main ally "any kind of assistance" and maintains lukewarmness towards Tehran will have to explain what it has done to protect our military personnel and the population of Rota and Morón.
Outlook and Scenarios
Prolongation of armed waiting until after 3 November (probable): active Qatari and Pakistani mediation, limited "maintenance" strikes, and maximum pressure on crude prices.
Major US operation, with or without Israel, in November or December (possible): against energy, military, and nuclear targets, with Iranian and Houthi reprisals against US personnel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Provisional agreement on Hormuz and the blockade (unlikely in the short term): whilst Washington demands nuclear guarantees the regime presents as "surrender".
The Houthi terrorist organisation bombs the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on the day Riyadh airport reopens
Facts
Coalition spokesperson General Turki al-Maliki reported on Sunday via SPA (Saudi Press Agency) the interception of a ballistic missile and two drones launched against Riyadh, a cruise missile directed at Khamis Mushait, and ten ballistic missiles against the south of the country (CNBC). Debris from two missiles fell in Khamis Mushait and Ahad Rafida, injuring two people and damaging three residential buildings and seven vehicles, according to Civil Defence. In the early hours, the coalition shot down another ballistic missile launched at Riyadh. The coalition claims to have destroyed two ballistic missile launchers in Sana'a, one used against the Saudi capital.
King Khalid International Airport resumed operations on Sunday, with Terminal 1 for domestic flights and Terminal 2 for international ones. It had been closed since the 10 October attack, which caused 13 deaths and over 300 injuries. According to Flightradar24, cited by AFP (Agence France-Presse), few flights took off and most remained cancelled. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarea warned airlines and travellers that the airport is "unsafe" and a "military target", and that "the Saudi regime will bear the consequences". Organisers of the Dakar Rally announced that the 2027 edition, if held, will not take place in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, its home since 2020.
The Houthis claimed "seven qualitative military operations" with missiles and drones against Riyadh airport, Aramco facilities in Yanbu, and crude pumping stations, without independent confirmation. In Taiz, the situation is worsening: according to Al Jazeera, they advanced on Sunday onto Jabal Sabr, the mountain dominating the city and protecting its sole supply route south. Taiz, the country's third city, has lived under Houthi siege since 2015, and the fall of those heights would leave it at the mercy of their artillery.
The UN (United Nations) warns that "time is running out" to deliver aid to the 800,000 trapped people, and the Yemeni Foundation for Women's Empowerment, cited by government agency Saba, states that 52% of the city's hospitals are out of service. Greece, meanwhile, confirmed in mid-month that its Patriot battery will remain in Yanbu, the major Saudi Red Sea oil port where it has been deployed since 2021.
Implications
The Houthi terrorist organisation has turned the Saudi capital's airport into a symbol. If the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia cannot guarantee its flights, it cannot guarantee its modernisation project, which is why Tehran and its terrorists strike there. The relocation of the Dakar and the postponement of the grand investment forum measure the damage. Defences hold, but the economics of this war are perverse: each Houthi missile costs a fraction of the interceptors needed to shoot it down.
That is why defensive gestures, whilst welcome, are not enough. The permanence of the Greek Patriot in Yanbu honours Athens and deserves recognition, but no static shield deters someone who knows they can keep firing without paying a price. Deterrence demands striking the origin of the aggression: launchers, depots, and assembly workshops in Yemen, and the Iranian supply chain feeding them.
The destruction of two launchers in Sana'a points in the right direction. The same applies to the Mecca Pact: a defensive alliance that ends up sitting in Tehran congratulating the aggressor's patron deters no one. The United States, Israel, and Europe must back the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, a dyke against the expansion of the Iranian regime on the Arabian Peninsula, and must do so with more than static batteries and press releases. Spain, with Rota and Morón as pieces of the allied apparatus, continues to give no sign whatsoever.
Taiz deserves separate mention because it belies Houthi propaganda. Those presenting themselves as defenders of the oppressed have kept Yemen's third city besieged for eleven years, cutting off water and supplies and bombing neighbourhoods whilst over half its hospitals cease functioning. This is not a war of liberation, but a policy of asphyxiation against the Yemeni population itself, and the international community, so mobilised in other scenarios, barely dedicates a line to it.
Outlook and Scenarios
Fresh attacks against Riyadh and Red Sea oil infrastructure (highly probable): to prevent normalisation of air traffic and pressure the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia during today's meeting in Tehran.
Fall of Jabal Sabr and total strangulation of Taiz (possible): with risk of health catastrophe in a city of 800,000 trapped inhabitants.
Temporary scaling back of attacks following the meeting with Rezaei (unlikely): only if Tehran wishes to offer Riyadh a quid pro quo in exchange for distancing itself from Washington.
Israel votes tomorrow: Eisenkot in the lead, Trump with Netanyahu
Facts
Israel's three major television networks published their final polls on Friday. All three place Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, led by the former Chief of Staff, ahead of Netanyahu's Likud. No bloc reaches 61 seats out of the 120 in the Knesset, and Arab parties, with 14 to 16, could prove decisive. Ultra-nationalist Itamar Ben Gvir's Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) list would win eight seats across all three polls. The BBC (British Broadcasting Corporation) estimates half a million new voters and some 70,000 Israelis travelling from abroad to vote. On Saturday, thousands demonstrated in Tel Aviv calling for a change of government.
Trump intervened Sunday on Truth Social: "Vote for Bibi Netanyahu as Prime Minister, we have to finish the job we started!" He described him as an "extraordinary warrior Prime Minister". Netanyahu released a video: "We have intelligence indications that our enemies, Iran and its proxies, could challenge us with attacks to disrupt the elections. Do not put us to the test. They will suffer disproportionate blows" (AFP). He also published an AI-generated image of a nuclear mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv.
Channel 12 reported, citing anonymous sources, a clash between Netanyahu and Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir over a new, unspecified directive concerning the war with Iran: Zamir allegedly demanded a thorough debate, legal guarantees, and the political echelon's signature before executing it. Netanyahu called it "garbage" and Yair Lapid accused him of seeking escalation "solely to postpone the elections". There is no independent confirmation.
In the West Bank, the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) will close all crossings on voting day, and Palestinian agency Wafa reports some 2,500 displaced persons over three days in the Al Jilda and Ain Deir Baha neighbourhoods of Hebron; the army maintains no one was forced to leave and demolished buildings were illegal or posed a threat. In Gaza, Al Jazeera counts eight dead on Sunday, three of them Islamic University guards.
In Jordan, security forces arrested three suspects on Monday following a shootout at an abandoned house in the village of Hamud, Karak, over the church attack that caused nine deaths and 40 injuries among Christian worshippers. No group has claimed responsibility; the Interior Minister speaks of "extremists" and King Abdullah II of "terrorism" that "will not undermine national unity".
Implications
Trump has broken elementary courtesy by intervening in an ally's election, doing so with the language of war: "finish the job". Netanyahu plays the same card, presenting himself once again as the sole guarantor of security, three years after 7 October occurred on his watch. Channel 12's report, if confirmed, would be more serious than any poll.
Samuel Huntington described in The Soldier and the State (1957) "objective civilian control": a professional military obeying political power precisely because the latter does not drag it into partisan squabbles. A Chief of Staff demanding legal guarantees before obeying, on the eve of an election, would be a symptom that this balance—one of Israel's great strengths—has frayed.
Eisenkot's candidacy deserves attention. Former Chief of Staff, member of the war cabinet until his resignation in June 2024, and father of a soldier killed in Gaza in December 2023, he embodies unflashy security that attracts voters from the centre and moderate right. His weakness is arithmetic: to govern he will need, at minimum, the abstention of Arab parties, and Netanyahu has already turned that possibility into his primary campaign argument. Whoever wins, Israeli policy towards Iran will barely change; what may change is the relationship with Washington and Europe, and the tone with which Israel governs itself.
Karak reminds us that jihadi terrorism continues to strike Middle Eastern Christian minorities and the West's most stable partner in the region. Jordan has responded with efficiency and proper language: national unity and punishment. Such rigour against terror is not inconsistent with the demand that Israel, a democracy, respect in Hebron the law distinguishing it from its enemies.
Outlook and Scenarios
No bloc reaches 61 seats, triggering weeks of negotiation (highly probable): with Arab parties as potential external support for the opposition, an argument Netanyahu will exploit.
Opposition government headed by Eisenkot (possible): continuity in military pressure on Iran, with closer coordination with Washington and Europe.
Serious security incident on polling day (possible): featuring Iran, the Houthis, or the Hizbulá terrorist organisation.
Sunday at the polls: Vučić falls in Serbia, Lula prevails in Brazil, and Russia punishes Ukraine
Facts
Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat in the early parliamentary elections: "It is clear that we have lost" (BBC). Ipsos and CeSID projections give the Student List 141 out of 250 seats, with 52.9% of the vote, ahead of the SNS's 103, in power since 2012. Turnout hovered around 70%. The movement was born from the collapse of the Novi Sad railway station canopy in November 2024, which killed 16 people and became a symbol of regime corruption. Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa celebrated the result, and Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar, who defeated Orbán in April, was the first EU head of government to congratulate the students.
In Bulgaria, outgoing President Iliana Yotova, backed by former President Rumen Radev, secured 35.3% according to exit polls, ahead of pro-European Andrey Gyurov's 32.4%. They will face each other on 1 November following record low turnout (Sofia Globe, Al Jazeera). Yotova advocates improving relations with Russia; Gyurov signed a security cooperation agreement with Ukraine.
In Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the run-off with 51.79% of the vote against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro, according to the Superior Electoral Court, defying poll predictions. Bolsonaro, who won the first round on 4 October, does not recognise the result: he claims extending voting hours by two hours was "inexplicable", even though both campaigns requested it, and announces he will petition for annulment. Lula, who turns 81 tomorrow, will begin his fourth term on 5 January 2027, facing a Congress where the Bolsonaro family's Liberal Party is the largest force and amid open distrust from the Trump administration. He will be the oldest president in Brazilian history and the only one to govern the country across four terms.
In Ukraine, Russia launched 153 drones on Saturday night; 119 were shot down and impacts occurred in 15 locations (Air Force, via ABC News). Four people died and 22 were injured, including an 11-year-old girl, in the Dnipropetrovsk region, whilst in Kharkiv Russians struck a hypermarket twice, the second strike hitting rescue teams. Zelenskyy noted some 1,600 guided bombs, 48 missiles, and nearly 2,300 drones in one week: "This is how Russia responds to diplomacy", and reiterated his call to unblock Patriots paid for by Europeans.
Implications
Vučić's fall is great news for Europe and terrible news for Putin. Vučić never imposed sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine; following Orbán's defeat, Moscow loses its second most comfortable interlocutor in central Europe and the Balkans. Václav Havel described in The Power of the Powerless (1978) the grocer who one day stops placing the regime's slogan in his shop window: it suffices for enough citizens to refuse to "live in the lie" for the building to shake.
That is what Serbian students have done. Brussels, however, must not confuse street joy with automatic alignment: the apparatus left behind by the SNS will remain, and Serbian nationalism has not vanished with Vučić. The new Government will also inherit Chinese dependence cultivated carefully by Vučić: the Smederevo steel mill, held by the HBIS group, and the Bor copper mines, exploited by Zijin Mining, are Beijing's bridgehead in the Balkans. Kosovo will remain the touchstone of any rapprochement with the Union.
In Bulgaria, the opposite is at play. Bulgaria, having adopted the euro on 1 January this year, should today be an example of Western anchoring. A Yotova victory would consolidate within the EU and NATO a pole less committed to Kyiv, and record abstention is the best ally of those wanting a country closer to Moscow. Ukraine, meanwhile, continues paying the price for diplomacy the Kremlin uses to buy time. That interceptor systems paid for by Europeans await Pentagon sign-off whilst Russia strikes the same spot twice to kill rescuers is an anomaly Europe must correct with its own industry.
Lula's re-election is another matter. It is legitimate, and whoever fails to accept a clean defeat disqualifies themselves, including Flávio Bolsonaro if he persists in demanding annulment without evidence. But it is bad news for Latin American liberal democracies and good news for Havana, Managua, and Caracas. In 1959, Rómulo Betancourt, Venezuela's social democratic president, formulated the doctrine bearing his name: refusing recognition to governments born of force or continental dictatorships.
Lula, claiming that same democratic left, has done the exact opposite: normalising the Chavist narco-dictatorial regime, coddling Cuba and Nicaragua, and opening Latin America's doors to Chinese expansionism in minerals, soy, and ports. Such a fourth term is not innocent continuity: it is confirmation of a diplomacy confusing non-alignment with indulgence towards tyrannies.
Outlook and Scenarios
Student List government in Serbia (highly probable): with risk of resistance within a state apparatus controlled by the SNS for twelve years.
Yotova's victory in the Bulgarian run-off on 1 November (probable): with low turnout and rhetoric more accommodating to Moscow.
Lula's fourth term with open friction with Washington (highly probable): Brasilia will deepen its axis with Beijing whilst nearly half the country rejected that project; Russia will maintain massive attacks against Ukraine ahead of talks scheduled for November.
Media Rack
CNN: Reveals, via two US officials, that deployed forces can launch major operations against Iran within 96 hours, likely after 3 November.
Reuters: Previews the Mecca Pact nations' meeting with Rezaei, covers Qatari-coordinated mediation with Washington, and places Brent at $115.16.
CBS News: Follows Trump's "deal or finish them off" live, Admiral Cooper's Hormuz overflight, and Ghalibaf's call to save gas.
Arab News: Presents Prince Khalid bin Salman's visit to Tehran as part of efforts "to lower regional tensions", without a single reproach to the host, highlighting the destruction of Houthi launchers in Sana'a and the wounded in Khamis Mushait. It is Riyadh's official reading: military firmness and diplomatic prudence, without exposing itself to public criticism of the regime with which it negotiates.
Euronews: Extensively covers the European election night: Serbia's "political shock" with Vučić's concession, and Yotova's narrow lead in Bulgaria in elections "dominated by the war in Ukraine and the economy". Good reporting service, albeit lacking proprietary analysis on what both results mean for Moscow.
Al Jazeera: Details the Houthi barrage, the advance on Jabal Sabr, and the Bulgarian run-off; publishes a profile of Vučić, "the Serbian leader brought down by students".
France 24: Covers the partial reopening of Riyadh airport, the relocation of the Dakar Rally, and this morning's new missile; carries Flávio Bolsonaro's annulment petition.
Franceinfo: Headlines that Lula "secures a fourth term" with 51.8% against conservative Flávio Bolsonaro.
Israel National News: Publishes the final three Israeli polls and Trump's FOX 2 Detroit interview on a "great deal" with Iran.
Ynet: Breaks down the latest polls party by party: no bloc reaches 61 and Arab parties may decide.
The National: Reports on the arrest of the three suspects in the Karak church attack and King Abdullah II's words.
BBC: Describes the weight of new voters in Israel, covers Vučić's concession, and analyses Lula's narrow victory against a hostile Congress.
The Guardian: Follows Serbian election night, with projections of 141 seats for the Student List and congratulations from Von der Leyen, Costa, and Magyar.
ABC News: Gathers the tally of Russian nocturnal strikes and Zelenskyy's plea to unblock Patriots.
El Español: Publishes the SocioMétrica poll for 29 November: PP 135 seats, PSOE 108, and Vox 63; with UPN, the centre-right would total 200.
Editorial Commentary
Congratulating Rezaei
There are images summarising an era better than a hundred press releases. Today in Tehran, the Minister of Defence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will sit alongside the Pakistani Army Chief and Turkish intelligence chief opposite Mohsen Rezaei. The official reason is to "congratulate" him on his appointment to head the Supreme National Security Council. Congratulating Rezaei: the man sought by Argentine justice for the AMIA massacre, the IRGC veteran embodying, alongside Vahidi, the real power of the oligarchic-jihadist regime. All this on the very weekend that the Houthi terrorist organisation, its proxy, launched twelve missiles and two drones against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and declared its capital's airport a "military target".
This is not a Saudi diplomatic error. It is a symptom, and one worth reading coldly before getting indignant. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has its main airport under permanent threat, has postponed its grand investment forum, watches the Dakar leave, and suffers daily falls of missile debris on its cities whilst Washington updates travel warnings for over a dozen regional countries. Lord Palmerston told the Commons in 1848: Great Britain had no eternal allies and no perpetual enemies, but eternal and perpetual interests. When the protector retreats, the protected seeks guarantees wherever possible. Today, where possible, is in the capital of the country arming, funding, and directing those bombarding it.
Military success is indisputable. Trump can boast, and does, that Iran no longer has a navy or air force, that the naval blockade is suffocating it, and that two tiers of its leadership have vanished. CENTCOM has escorted over 3,000 vessels through Hormuz and, according to CNN, could launch a major operation within 96 hours. Yet none of that has produced the only thing that matters: an Iranian interlocutor capable of committing and delivering. Pezeshkian does not control the weapons, Baghaei asserts Tehran has never left the table, and Ghalibaf asks Iranians to save gas. Neighbours, knowing the regime better than anyone, have drawn their conclusion: if one must speak to someone, one speaks to Rezaei.
That is the gravest consequence of decapitation without political strategy. Eliminating a leadership tier does not guarantee the next will be more sensible; it often guarantees the opposite, because survivors are the hardest, most distrustful, and most dependent on the security apparatus. Trump poses his dilemma with characteristic brutality—deal or annihilation—but offers his allies nothing of what they meanwhile need: defence, presence, and a day-after plan. The strategy of outrage serves to frighten; it does not serve, on its own, to build a regional order. Middle powers are beginning to build one on their own account, in Tehran.
I do not reproach the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for seeking protection. I reproach the West for leaving it so few options. What Riyadh deserves is not a sermon, but support, and support going beyond the defensive. The permanence of the Greek Patriot in Yanbu honours Athens and deserves recognition, but no static shield deters someone who knows they can keep firing with impunity. Deterrence requires striking launchers, depots, and the Houthi supply chain in Yemen. Halting halfway is, in strategy, worse than doing nothing, because it wastes resources without altering the enemy's calculus. Too many European leaders this century confuse prudence with pusillanimity, and history usually collects interest on that confusion.
Spain, holding in Rota and Morón two essential pieces of the allied apparatus and ought to be primarily interested in Gulf and Red Sea stability, has not uttered a word. Lukewarmness towards Tehran has a price, and others pay it. That Pedro Sánchez's social-communist Government—five weeks away from elections all polls predict it will lose (SocioMétrica gives the centre-right 200 seats)—still utters not a single word on the security of the Gulf, the Red Sea, and our own bases speaks volumes about its priorities: the survival of a coalition sustained by a far-left complacent towards Tehran and Moscow weighs heavier than national interest.
Sunday also delivered a lesson of the opposite sign. In Serbia, a leaderless student movement born of indignation over sixteen dead beneath a poorly constructed canopy defeated Aleksandar Vučić at the ballot box—the man who refused to sanction Russia and conceded defeat that very night. Following Orbán's fall, Putin loses his two most comfortable interlocutors in the heart of Europe. It proves electoral autocracies are not invincible and corruption, when visible and fatal, can mobilise an entire society. Brussels will do well to open the door, but without naivety.
Ukraine, meanwhile, reminds us each night how Moscow responds when offered diplomacy: nearly 2,300 drones in a week and double strikes against rescuers in Kharkiv. Patriots already paid for by Europeans still await a signature in Washington. If Serbia proves societies can defeat autocracies at the ballot box, Ukraine proves there are autocracies stopped only by force. Europe cannot celebrate the former whilst ignoring the latter.
Ballot boxes do not always produce the desired result, and that is where democratic maturity is measured. In Brazil, Lula's re-election is legitimate and, at the same time, terrible news: not for the margin, but for what the consolidation of a diplomacy complacent towards Caracas, Havana, and Managua and wide open to Beijing represents. Whoever celebrates Lula today as a triumph of democracy should explain why that same criterion does not apply when dealing with Venezuelan, Cuban, or Nicaraguan political prisoners. A president confusing non-alignment with indulgence towards tyrannies is no brake on authoritarianism: he is its facilitator.
Israel votes tomorrow with the same underlying question. Trump has asked for votes for Netanyahu in the language of war—"finish the job"—and Netanyahu responds with legitimate warnings to Iran and an image of a nuclear mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv adding nothing to state seriousness.
If Channel 12's report regarding the Chief of Staff is true, the problem is not electoral, but institutional. Israel's strength has always been the combination of a military subordinate to civil power and a civil power not dragging the military into partisan squabbles. Whoever wins tomorrow must preserve both, because the war with Iran is not over and the next phase will demand utmost cohesion between decision-makers and executors.
I return to Tehran, because the essential is played out there. Today's meeting will not alter the military balance, but changes the narrative. The regime can present to its population and region three senior officials of allied Western powers arriving to congratulate its strongman: Rezaei, wanted by Interpol, received as a statesman. It is the symbolic victory the regime fails to win on the battlefield.
If Washington wishes to prevent a repeat, preparing the next wave of bombings for after 3 November is not enough. It must offer its Gulf allies missile defence, presence, and real deterrence against attacking terrorists. Europe, speaking so much of strategic autonomy, has an unmissable opportunity to prove the word means something.