Millions of Americans struggling with student loan payments could be bringing their frustrations to the ballot boxes.
Amid the Trump administration’s many changes affecting the Department of Education (DOE), surging default rates and the prospect of wage garnishment could generate a larger affordability issue ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
As of June 30, 9.3 million federal student loan borrowers were in default, while another 1.5 million were in late-stage delinquency, according to Federal Student Aid. And around $234 billion, or roughly 14 percent of the nation's $1.7 trillion student debt load, was in default.
“With some facing higher monthly repayment amounts and the possibility of their wages being garnished, this issue could become the most important one for them in this midterm voting cycle,” Alex Beene, financial literacy instructor at the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek.
The DOE is also working with the Treasury Department as the Trump administration prepares to step up collection efforts against borrowers who have defaulted. Those efforts could eventually include administrative wage garnishment and even the interception of federal tax refunds.
Why It Matters
A recent Student Debt Crisis Center survey found 88 percent of respondents said their student loan experience would affect their midterm vote, while 71 percent said it would have a significant influence.
President Donald Trump's second term has brought major changes across the board to the federal student loan system at the same time borrowers are confronting broader cost-of-living pressures dominating the 2026 elections.
Student debt affects a large voting bloc, as roughly one in six American adults has federal student loan debt.
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What To Know
The national rate of borrowers at least 60 days behind on federal or private student loan payments stood at 15.8 percent in August, according to an Urban Institute study.
Texas and Ohio, which are gearing up for competitive Senate races, were above the national average. Nine House battleground districts identified by the Cook Political Report also had delinquency rates exceeding the nationwide level, including Texas' 34th Congressional District at about 28 percent and North Carolina's 1st Congressional District at approximately 25 percent.
“Human nature is subject to recency bias, and many of these younger voters know how it has felt dealing with the Department of Education recently,” Kevin Thompson, CEO of 9i Capital Group and host of the 9innings podcast, told Newsweek.
“From poor website integration and changing timelines to outright incorrect data and loan agreements, many will likely vote against the current administration.”
Student Loan Defaults Rise Ahead of Midterms
The federal student loan system is still dealing with the aftereffects of the pandemic-era repayment pause and its subsequent restoration of payments. New Education Department data showed 400,000 additional borrowers had entered default by June, bringing the overall number above 9 million.
Federal loans generally enter default after 270 days of missed payments. But at the same time, borrowers are navigating changes to their repayment options.
The Center for American Progress estimated that borrowers switching from the Biden-era SAVE plan to the new Repayment Assistance Plan could see payments rise by an average of $2,163 annually.
“The Trump administration is forcing some borrowers into higher loan repayments, while others are falling into default, potentially exposing them to wage garnishment at a time when they need the cash the most, especially as they face higher inflationary pressures,” Thompson said.
Trump Administration Eyes Student Loan Wage Garnishment
The Trump administration has also been reportedly preparing to intensify collection efforts against defaulted borrowers, with the Education Department and Treasury working toward using private collection agencies. Legally, that could mean garnishing up to 15 percent of a defaulted borrower's wages and even intercepting federal tax refunds or offsetting certain federal benefits.
No official restart date has been announced, but there could still be a political effect, said Michael Ryan, finance expert and founder of MichaelRyanMoney.com.
“Student loans are becoming a meaningful midterm issue. Particularly for borrowers whose payments are rising while they're already struggling with everyday bills,” Ryan told Newsweek.
“When you're choosing between a student loan payment, groceries and rent, Washington's arguments about repayment policy start to feel pretty far removed from your kitchen table. And wage garnishment changes the equation. A borrower who's already behind could eventually have money taken directly from a paycheck. You can't budget your way around money you never receive.”
Could Student Loan Borrowers Affect the Midterms?
Based on recent polls, borrowers do seem to be thinking about their debt when deciding how to vote. The Student Debt Crisis Center surveyed 4,283 people from September 9 to October 14 across all 50 states, Washington, D.C., and three U.S. territories.
The center found 88 percent said their student loan experience would influence their vote, and 71 percent said it would influence their vote significantly. On top of that, 65 percent said they had cut spending on food, housing or healthcare to make student loan payments.
Among borrowers who were current on their loans and had estimated payments under a new repayment plan, 93 percent said they would struggle to afford them or could not afford them at all.
The fall Harvard Youth Poll, conducted September 30 to October 7 among 2,024 Americans age 18 to 29, also found 49 percent said their personal finances had worsened since the current administration took office, and 77 percent disapproved of Trump's handling of the economy.
Among likely young voters, 63 percent described their congressional vote as opposition to Trump and his policies, compared with 14 percent who characterized their vote as support for him.
“The reality is some of these student loan changes would not be as much of a factor in swaying votes if they weren’t combined with increases in most other bills and purchases,” Beene said. “With inflationary pressures continuing to weigh heavily on voters, a monthly repayment increase feels more financially painful for borrowers than it normally would.”
Where Student Loan Defaults Could Matter Most
Another report by the Student Borrower Protection Center earlier this year estimated that roughly two-thirds of defaulted borrowers lived in states Trump carried in the 2024 presidential election.
“I wouldn't assume every struggling borrower votes the same way,” Ryan said. “Financial pressure doesn't tell us someone's politics. But it certainly gives people a personal reason to pay attention.”
What Happens Next
Inflation, housing costs, employment and other economic concerns are also core issues for voters, and some student loan borrowers may stay aligned with their preselected party no matter what.
The outcome of the midterms also would not end key executive powers Trump holds in the White House, Thompson said.
“The reality is that even if Democrats sweep both chambers of Congress, the president’s broad veto power will give the executive branch considerable leverage to keep many of the current policies in place,” Thompson said.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Edward T. Cummins