Moving west-northwestwards at a speed of 15 kmph, the tempest is forecast to escalate into a severe cyclonic storm by the midnight of October 26 and transform into a very severe cyclonic storm the following day.
The IMD warns that the system will cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts close to Yanam and between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of October 28, packing maximum sustained wind speeds of 115 to 125 kmph, gusting up to 140 kmph.
Subject: Deep Depression intensified into Cyclonic Storm “Arnab” [Pronunciation : Ornab] over Eastcentral and adjoining Westcentral Bay of Bengal [Cyclone Warning for Andhra Pradesh and adjoining South Odisha coasts—Red Message] The Deep Depression over Eastcentral and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal moved nearly westwards with a speed of 15 kmph during last 6 hours, intensified into cyclonic storm ““Arnab” [Pronunciation :Ornab]” and lay centered at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 26th October, 2026 over Eastcentral and adjoining Westcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 15.4°N and longitude 88.9°E, about 590 km northwest of Sri Vijaya Puram (#Andaman Islands), 610 km southeast of Gopalpur (Odisha), 650 km east-southeast of Vishakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), 730 km east-southeast of Kakinada (Andhra Pradesh), 830 km east of Machilipatnam (Andhra Pradesh) and 910 km east of Bapatla (Andhra Pradesh). It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm over westcentral Bay of Bengal by midnight of today, the 26th October and into a very severe cyclonic storm over the same region on 27th October. Thereafter, it is very likely to move northwestwards and cross Andhra Pradesh & Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam as a very severe cyclonic storm with the maximum sustained wind speed of 115-125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph by forenoon of 28th October, 2026.
— India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) October 26, 2026
Destructive storm surges reaching 1.0 to 1.5 meters above astronomical tide are projected to inundate low-lying areas, with peak surges expected over East Godavari and Yanam.
Rainfall forecast for major states
According to the IMD bulletin, widespread rainfall is predicted across multiple regions starting from October 26 and continuing till October 30.
- Andaman Islands: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy rainfall at isolated places is very likely on October 26 and 27.
- Andhra Pradesh: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places is very likely on October 27 and 28, followed by heavy rainfall at isolated places on October 29.
- Odisha: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places on October 27, heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places on October 28, and heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places on October 29.
- Telangana: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places over eastern parts on October 28, and heavy rainfall at isolated places on October 29.
- Chhattisgarh: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places over South Chhattisgarh on October 28, and over north Chhattisgarh on October 29.
- Jharkhand: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places from October 28 to 30.
- Bihar: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places on October 29, and heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places on October 30.
- Gangetic West Bengal: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places over coastal districts on October 28 and 29.
- Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places on October 29 and 30.
- Vidarbha: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy rainfall at isolated places from October 28 to 30.
- East Madhya Pradesh: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places on October 28, heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places on October 29, and heavy rainfall at isolated places on October 30.
- East Uttar Pradesh: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places on October 29 and 30.
Extensive devastation is anticipated across coastal zones, including total destruction of thatched houses, uprooting of massive trees, severe disruption of power and communication lines, and major damage to rail and road infrastructure.
Authorities have initiated large-scale evacuations of coastal hutment dwellers, while the IMD mandates a total suspension of fishing operations, warning all operators, shipping vessels, and fishermen to avoid the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea areas through October 28.