Israelis go to polls in tight race to decide Netanyahu’s fate

Israel is holding its first election since the 2023 Hamas attack that traumatized the nation and triggered the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, a vote many consider to be the country’s most consequential in decades.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, 77, is seeking reelection on Tuesday, saying the military campaigns he’s led over the past three years have improved security. His opponents, led by former armed forces chief Gadi Eisenkot, say the country’s longest serving leader is its greatest threat, indicted for bribery and allied with nationalist extremists whose anti-Arab rhetoric and policies are turning Israel into a pariah. 

Polls have consistently forecast a razor-thin outcome, with neither bloc likely to secure enough votes to claim the 61-seat parliamentary majority needed to form a government. Complex, weeks-long negotiations and even a possible second election may follow. 

During that time, Netanyahu could continue as a caretaker prime minister in a transitional government. That would enable him to potentially attack Iran again, as both he and US President Donald Trump have threatened, reigniting a war that’s been on hiatus for several months. 

The Israeli Arab minority may end up as surprising kingmakers, with turnout among the group that makes up about 20% of the population expected to be higher than previous elections. The two Israeli Arab parties have offered to support a government led by Eisenkot, although some of his partners have vowed they won’t serve in a government that relies on Arabs.

After voting ends at 10pm, exit polls will show where things are headed. Voter participation is forecast to be unusually high, with tens of thousands of Israeli expatriates flying in to cast their votes, with many expected to be supporting the opposition. 

Netanyahu loyalists remain defiant. While the prime minister has been criticized for allowing the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack — in which militants killed 1,200 people and abducted 250 — his supporters blame the security establishment and say only Netanyahu has the skill and experience to defend the nation. At least 74,000 people have been killed in Israel’s subsequent campaign in Gaza, according to the Hamas-led health ministry there, and the territory has been reduced to near rubble. 

Netanyahu’s Likud party says Israel has turned the tables on its Iran-backed enemies since 2023. The military controls two thirds of Gaza, and missiles that used to be fired regularly from the territory have stopped. Israel has severely degraded Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and, along with the US, damaged Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, though Tehran remains far from defeated.

Settler violence against West Bank Palestinians has shocked many abroad and within the Israeli opposition there is a call to crack down on the perpetrators. But, in contrast to a couple of decades ago, few Israelis consider the settlements illegitimate or favor a Palestinian state. 

On Sunday, Netanyahu’s campaign put out an ad showing an AI-generated image of an atomic bomb destroying Tel Aviv, with the message that Iran is building a nuclear weapon. Trump has twice endorsed Netanyahu, saying the two of them need to work together to end the threat from the Islamic Republic. 

Eisenkot, 66, who’s no dove and who lost a son in the war in Gaza, accused Netanyahu of hysteria and fear mongering. Yair Golan, another former military leader who heads the left-leaning Democrats party, added: “On Tuesday we will replace the sowers of panic and return Israel to security and sanity.”

Eisenkot warned in a final campaign rally on Sunday that Netanyahu might not permit an orderly transition if he loses. 

“I know Netanyahu — he will stop at nothing, no lie and no extreme measure, to remain in power,” said Eisenkot, who served briefly in a Netanyahu war cabinet after the Oct. 7 attacks.

Netanyahu had said in a TV interview that the world’s hostility to Israel, which he blames on antisemitism and a growing alliance between Muslims and the Western left, would lead to economic sanctions. Israel would evade them through the use of cryptocurrencies, he said, prompting immediate pushback from the Bank of Israel and many economists. 

“Cryptocurrencies cannot serve as a means of circumventing sanctions on Israel,” the central bank said. “The right course for Israel’s economy is to preserve economic relations with our main trading partners and focus on preventing sanctions and their negative impact on the economy.”

Source: Bloomberg