Israeli polls: Netanyahu faces tough test, turnout record high

Israelis streamed to the polls yesterday in record numbers to pass wartime judgement on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in what some described as the most consequential election in the nation’s history.

Long lines formed outside polling stations for the first election since the Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023, as voters grappled with the trauma of Israel’s deadliest day and its ensuing wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

The Central Elections Committee reported the turnout at 6:00pm (1600 GMT) at 66.7%, a record at that point of the day. With four hours left to go, more people had voted than in the entire previous election.

The policies of Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition have been divisive at home and have deepened Israel’s international isolation. But he has portrayed himself as the only leader with the mettle to face down Israel’s foes.

Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving leader with 19 years in office, is an unmatched political survivor, and his nationalist politics are increasingly entrenched. Israel’s fragmented system makes it difficult for an array of opponents to force out his coalition of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties.

His main rival Gadi Eisenkot, a military ex-chief of staff and security hawk, aims to unseat him with the support of parties on the right and centre, as well as the rump of an increasingly marginalised left. Opinion polls show a close race, giving neither man an easy path to power.

Forecasters were hesitant to guess what impact the strong turnout might have on the result. A surge in votes from Israelis of Palestinian heritage could limit gains for Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition and make it more likely that any government formed to oust him would require Arab parties’ support, a contentious prospect among Jewish party leaders.

Netanyahu urged supporters to come out to vote to balance high turnout among his opponents on the left and Arab Israelis. “You all need to stream to the polls,” he said. “This is a fateful moment.”

“I think these elections are the most important of all the ones I’ve known,” said Ruth Epstein, an 81-year-old longtime left-wing voter in Ramat Gan near Tel Aviv, who voted for the opposition Democrats.

Netanyahu has campaigned on an endorsement from US President Donald Trump, his ally in the war against Iran, who has said they should “finish the job”.

If neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot can form a governing coalition in the 120-seat parliament, Netanyahu could stay on as caretaker until another election is held.

His opponents have managed to wrest the premiership from him only once since 2009, and that took four inconclusive elections in two years. Eighteen months later, he was back.

For many of Netanyahu’s opponents, the election turns on accountability for the security failures of October 7. Opposition groups have promised to hold a national inquiry, which Netanyahu has resisted.

“I am convinced that by the end of today, we will see a change — a new spirit for the State of Israel — that will serve as a rectification for the past three years and for that terrible day,” Eisenkot said during a visit to kibbutz Nir Oz in southern Israel, among those attacked on October 7.

He walked to the polls with Gadi Mozes, one of 251 people kidnapped by Hamas and taken to Gaza during the assault, which killed 1,200 people.

Eisenkot says Israel’s response — a war that has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities — was a failure because Hamas remains in charge. He repeated his commitment to dismantle or destroy Hamas’ military and administrative power in Gaza within 18 months of forming a government.

Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of a far-right party in Netanyahu’s coalition, cast his vote in the Kiryat Arba settlement in the occupied West Bank early on Tuesday. He predicted Netanyahu would return as prime minister and his own party would serve as the right-wing anchor of the government.

Ahmed Tibi, a candidate from an Arab party, said record turnout from Israel’s Arab minority would “pave the way for an alternative government and change the grave reality”.

Eisenkot has ruled out partnering with Arab parties, although in some scenarios he could rely on them to propup a minority government that keeps Netanyahu out.

Netanyahu has repeatedly described Arab Israelis, a fifth of the population, as a threat, in language that his opponents say crosses into racism. He posted an image on X on Tuesday showing a queue of Arab women, in niqabs or with angry expressions, purportedly at a polling station. According to OpenAI’s verification website, the image was prepared using its AI tools.

Cars bearing the flag of Netanyahu’s Likud Party drove through Jerusalem’s streets with loudspeakers blaring the Islamic call to prayer and urging, “Get out of your houses now! Arabs are voting!”

Like nearly all Jewish party leaders in Israel, Eisenkot opposes the two-state solution that once underpinned decades of peace negotiations with the Palestinians.

But he has criticised Jewish settler violence against Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, which has surged since 2023 and strained Israel’s ties with Western states. And he opposes Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners.