By Sekinat Osundiji
Nigeria may experience increased heat and changing rainfall patterns as a strengthening El Niño event raises concerns about its potential effects on agriculture, water supply, electricity generation and public health.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said in September 2026 that El Niño was expected to strengthen into a very strong event and persist into early 2027. The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has also warned that the phenomenon could affect rainfall patterns, including the length of the rainy season and when it ends.
But what is El Niño, how could it affect Nigeria, and what can the country do to prepare?
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than average.
This warming affects atmospheric circulation, changing weather patterns around the world. Depending on the region, it can contribute to higher temperatures, reduced or excessive rainfall, and shifts in seasonal conditions.
El Niño is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate pattern that also includes La Niña, its cooler phase, and neutral conditions.
According to the WMO, El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and 12 months. Although it develops thousands of kilometres from Nigeria, its influence on global atmospheric circulation can affect weather in West Africa. However, its effects vary by location and do not automatically mean drought or extreme heat everywhere.
What does El Niño mean for Nigeria?
NiMet’s August 2026 seasonal climate update identified the onset of a strong El Niño event and outlined possible implications for rainfall, agriculture, water resources and energy.
For August to October 2026, the agency forecast normal to above-normal rainfall across much of northern Nigeria, while parts of the South-West and Cross River State were expected to experience normal to below-normal rainfall.
These projections highlight the possibility of different weather outcomes across the country.
1. Higher temperatures and health risks
One major concern is the possibility of increased heat. In October 2026, the Climate Impact Lab projected that Nigeria could record an additional 31,400 heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, compared with an average year.
The figure is a model-based estimate of potential excess deaths, not a confirmed death toll or a certainty that those deaths will occur.
Extreme heat can cause dehydration, heat exhaustion and potentially fatal heatstroke, particularly among children, older people and outdoor workers.
Health authorities should strengthen public awareness campaigns, issue timely heat warnings and prepare health facilities for heat-related emergencies. Residents should drink water regularly, seek shade, limit strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest hours where possible, and check on vulnerable relatives and neighbours.
2. Agriculture and food production
Changes in rainfall can disrupt planting schedules and crop development. Prolonged dry spells or an early end to the rainy season could reduce yields, while excessive rainfall may cause flooding and damage farms.
NiMet has identified possible agricultural risks in areas expecting below-normal rainfall, including parts of Borno and Yobe.
Farmers should monitor updated forecasts, consider early-maturing or drought-tolerant crop varieties where appropriate, and seek advice from agricultural extension officers. In areas expecting heavier rainfall, maintaining drainage channels can help limit damage.
Government agencies should also improve farmers’ access to timely weather information and agricultural advice.
3. Water supply and electricity generation
Prolonged rainfall deficits can reduce river flows, reservoir levels and groundwater recharge, putting pressure on domestic water supplies and irrigation.
Hydropower generation could also be affected if water inflows into dams decline. NiMet has identified reduced water availability and lower reservoir inflows as potential risks, although these do not confirm nationwide water shortages or electricity disruptions.
Water authorities should monitor reservoirs and groundwater conditions, identify vulnerable communities and develop contingency plans. Residents can help by repairing leaking taps and avoiding unnecessary water waste.
4. Food prices and household expenses
Adverse weather could reduce agricultural output, damage farms and disrupt transportation, placing pressure on food supplies and prices.
However, El Niño alone does not mean food prices will rise nationwide. Harvests, storage, transport costs and wider market conditions will also influence prices.
The government should monitor food supplies, support farmers in vulnerable areas and strengthen storage and distribution systems to reduce avoidable losses.
How should Nigeria prepare?
Preparation requires coordinated action by government agencies, state authorities, farmers, health workers, businesses and residents.
NiMet should continue issuing updated, location-specific forecasts and ensure warnings reach rural communities and farmers, including those without reliable internet access.
Health authorities should educate the public on heat-related illnesses and strengthen emergency responses, particularly for vulnerable populations.
Agricultural ministries and extension officers should provide advice on planting dates, crop selection, irrigation and drainage based on current forecasts.
Water agencies should monitor dams and reservoirs, reduce distribution losses and plan for communities that may face shortages. Authorities must also prepare for heavy rainfall and flooding rather than focus exclusively on drought.
Government agencies, broadcasters and journalists should communicate climate information clearly, distinguish projections from confirmed events and update the public as conditions change.
Does El Niño mean Nigeria is heading for disaster?
Not necessarily. El Niño increases the likelihood of certain climate-related impacts but does not determine precisely what will happen in every state.
The WMO has emphasised that even a very strong event does not produce equally severe effects everywhere. Local weather patterns and other climate drivers can alter its influence.
Nigeria’s priority should be to identify areas most vulnerable to heat and rainfall changes and prepare accordingly. Following NiMet’s updates and taking practical precautions can help reduce risks to public health, agriculture, water resources and electricity generation.
Ultimately, the challenge is not simply how strong El Niño becomes, but how effectively Nigeria prepares for its potential consequences.
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