Israel's 2026 parliamentary election could leave the country facing another political deadlock if no political bloc manages to secure the 61 seats required to form a government. With Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing opposition from several rival political parties, the election outcome may depend as much on post-poll alliances as on the number of seats won by individual parties.
The general election will be held on October 27, with exit polls expected that night, preliminary results emerging on October 28, and official results due by November 4.
Israel's parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats, meaning a party or coalition needs at least 61 lawmakers to command a majority.
However, the country's proportional representation system makes it difficult for a single party to win enough seats independently. As a result, coalition negotiations are central to the formation of every Israeli government, according to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).
If the election produces another fragmented parliament, several possibilities could emerge, ranging from a fresh Netanyahu-led coalition to an opposition government, a national unity arrangement or another election.
How does Israel's 61-seat majority system work?
Israel follows a nationwide proportional representation system in which voters choose political parties rather than individual candidates. The 120 Knesset seats are allocated according to the share of votes received by parties that cross the electoral threshold of 3.25%.
After the results are declared, Israel's president consults representatives of the elected parties before assigning a lawmaker the responsibility of forming a government. The designated candidate must negotiate with other parties and secure enough parliamentary backing to establish a coalition.
The largest party does not automatically get the prime minister's post. What matters is whether a candidate can assemble a coalition with the support of at least 61 lawmakers, according to the Israel Democracy Institute.
What happens if no party wins 61 seats? Top scenarios explained
1. Netanyahu forms another coalition
Netanyahu could remain prime minister if his Likud party and its traditional right-wing and religious allies collectively secure enough seats.
Potential coalition partners include Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit, Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism, Shas and United Torah Judaism.
These parties have previously supported Netanyahu-led governments. Their combined strength and willingness to continue the alliance could determine whether he gets another opportunity to form an administration.
2. Opposition parties unite to form a government
Another possibility is an opposition coalition involving parties led by Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman and Yair Golan.
Although these parties differ on several policy issues, their opposition to Netanyahu could provide common ground for negotiations.
However, they would need to secure support from additional lawmakers if their combined seat tally falls short of 61. Disagreements over leadership, security policy and religious affairs could also complicate the negotiations.
3. Arab parties emerge as kingmakers
Arab-led political parties could become decisive if neither the Netanyahu camp nor the opposition secures a parliamentary majority.
The United Arab List (Ra'am), led by Mansour Abbas, and the Joint List could potentially provide the additional parliamentary support needed to form a government.
Ra'am previously participated in Naftali Bennett's coalition in 2021, marking a significant development in Israeli politics.
However, cooperation with Arab-led parties remains controversial among several Jewish opposition leaders. This could limit the possibility of a formal coalition and make negotiations more complicated, according to Al Jazeera.
4. A minority government takes shape
A government could also be formed without formally including every supporting party in its cabinet.
Under this arrangement, smaller parties could provide outside support by backing confidence motions and important legislation without joining the governing coalition.
Arab-led parties could potentially support an opposition administration through such an arrangement, although disagreements over policy could make it difficult to maintain parliamentary stability.
5. Rival parties agree to a national unity government
If neither political camp can form a government independently, rival parties could consider joining hands to establish a national unity administration.
Israel has previously witnessed such an arrangement. In 2020, Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz agreed to share power through a rotating premiership following repeated election deadlocks.
A similar arrangement could involve parties from both the right and centre-left, although disagreements over judicial reforms, security policy and religious exemptions could prove challenging.
6. A rotating prime ministership is negotiated
Political leaders could also agree to share the prime minister's office through a rotation arrangement.
Israel has already experimented with this model. In 2021, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid agreed to share the premiership, with Bennett serving first before Lapid took over in 2022.
A similar agreement could help rival leaders overcome disagreements over who should head a coalition, provided they secure sufficient parliamentary support.
7. Israel heads for another election
If coalition negotiations fail, Israel could face another parliamentary election.
The country's recent political history includes five elections between 2019 and 2022, reflecting persistent difficulties in establishing stable governments.
If no candidate manages to form a coalition within the constitutionally prescribed process, the Knesset could eventually be dissolved, triggering another election. Netanyahu could continue heading a caretaker government until a successor administration is formed.
Why is the 2026 Israel election significant?
The election comes against the backdrop of the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks, subsequent military operations and continuing regional security challenges.
Netanyahu's handling of national security, accountability for the October 7 attacks, judicial reforms, military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews and the economy are among the major issues shaping the political debate.