Will Serbia’s election change its foreign policy?

Serbia's student movement has won a historic election victory over Aleksandar Vucic's ruling party, but early indications suggest the new government is unlikely to sever ties with Russia or fundamentally change the country's foreign policy.

The Student List won 52.71% of the vote and 140 seats in parliament in the October 25 snap election, according to preliminary results from the Republic Election Commission. The list led by Vucic won 39.17% and 104 seats, ending 14 years of dominance by his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).

The result marks a major political turning point for Serbia, an EU candidate since 2012. But the movement's victory was driven primarily by anger over corruption and demands for institutional reform, rather than a desire to change the country's international alliances.

The students brought together a politically diverse coalition, including right-wing nationalists and more liberal-minded figures, united by opposition to Vucic’s government. Their differences could complicate efforts to form a stable government and agree on a common foreign policy.

During the campaign, the movement's leading candidate, Ilija Srdanovic, sought to keep the focus on domestic problems, arguing that Serbia's institutions needed to be reformed before difficult questions about the country's international position could be resolved.

In an interview with the BBC in September, he said Serbia's foreign policy should be guided by the interests of its citizens, while stressing the importance of the country's strategic interests, energy dependence and cooperation with Russia.

He told Insajder TV that EU membership was not the movement's immediate priority, arguing that questions about accession should be considered once media freedom and public debate had been restored. He said citizens should ultimately decide on membership in a referendum.

The statements suggest the student-led government is likely to prioritise domestic reforms rather than make sweeping foreign-policy changes. Reforms to the judiciary and media could bring Serbia closer to EU standards, but that does not necessarily mean its leaders will accelerate accession or abandon their existing international relationships.

The Student List's pragmatic position could disappoint EU leaders, who have repeatedly called on Serbia to align its foreign policy more closely with the bloc's.

The movement has already signalled that it does not intend to abandon Serbia's longstanding ties with Moscow.

In a statement published during the campaign, it said Serbia would maintain its "principled stance against imposing restrictive measures on the Russian Federation".

Serbia has refused to join Western sanctions against Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, while also condemning violations of Ukraine's territorial integrity at the United Nations.

One reason is its dependence on Russian energy. Russia supplies about 80% of Serbia's natural gas imports, while the two countries maintain longstanding political and economic ties.

Belgrade also opposes sanctions on principle, citing its historical relationship with Moscow and its own experience of Western sanctions in the 1990s, which severely damaged the economy and made life difficult for ordinary people.

The movement's position on Kosovo is similarly unlikely to satisfy all of Brussels' expectations. Its members have not indicated an intention to recognise Kosovo's independence, while some have criticised Vucic for what they regard as concessions in negotiations over the territory.

Recognising Kosovo or imposing sanctions on Russia would be political suicide for any Serbian government. Both issues remain highly sensitive among the population, making a sudden change in either policy unlikely.

Balancing the EU, Russia and China                                 

The Student List's programme identifies the EU as Serbia's most important economic partner and supports closer strategic partnerships with member states. It also proposes reforms to the judiciary and fundamental rights that are central to the accession process.

But it does not commit Serbia to joining the bloc or set out a detailed plan for advancing membership negotiations.

Serbia has spent more than a decade as an EU candidate while maintaining close relations with Russia and deepening economic ties with China. Under Vucic, the government pursued European integration while resisting some of the political and foreign-policy changes demanded by Brussels.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has expressed the EU's readiness to support reforms in Serbia, particularly in the rule of law, institutional independence, media freedom and the fight against corruption. Moscow, meanwhile, has said it wants to continue developing relations with Belgrade.

The new government is unlikely to give up the balancing act that has served Serbia for many years. The country has attracted significant foreign investment from both the EU and China, including Chinese investment under Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative. It has also taken steps towards closer European integration, with Serbian banks beginning to offer payments through the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) in May 2026.

Maintaining that balance will not be easy. Moving closer to the EU could require difficult decisions on Russia and Kosovo, while a more confrontational approach towards Moscow could threaten energy supplies and provoke opposition within the movement itself. Belgrade will also want to preserve its economic relationship with China and continue to develop ties with the United States.

The Student List's ideological diversity could make these choices particularly difficult. Its members may agree on the need to reform Serbia's institutions but disagree over the country's place in the world. Foreign-policy decisions risk alienating parts of the coalition, potentially threatening its unity.

The new leadership's first decisions will show whether it can maintain the country's existing relationships while delivering domestic reforms, or whether external pressure will force to make more fundamental choices.