Republicans view the Minnesota Senate race as a potential pickup opportunity in the 2026 midterm elections, even as they face an increasingly difficult national environment in the final stretch of the campaign.
The Minnesota Senate race shifted from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic in the Cook Political Report as a flurry of recent polls showed a tight race between Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and retired broadcaster Michele Tafoya, a Republican.
While Republicans are dealing with challenging headwinds nationally, Democrats are having their own difficulties in Minnesota, experts told Newsweek. The race presents Republicans a pickup opportunity in a cycle that has been difficult for their party.
Democrats have faced backlash over Democratic Governor Tim Walz’s handling of a fraud scandal in the general election, which has become a flash point in the Senate race, with Flanagan facing scrutiny over her proximity to Walz.
Fraud and Corruption Among Top Issues
There is "no doubt" the race is competitive as Flanagan has had a difficult time shaking the fraud backlash, Larry Jacobs, political scientist at the University of Minnesota, told Newsweek on Monday.
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"That's clearly tarnished her reputation, and her opponent comes back to it constantly," he said.
David Schultz, professor of political science at Hamline University, told Newsweek that many voters view fraud and corruption, along with affordability, as among their top issues in Minnesota.
"The question becomes if the voters are basically voting as a referendum on the incumbent party, is the incumbent in Minnesota Donald Trump or is it Governor Walz? Is it the fraud at the national level or at the state level? We don’t have enough data to parse that," he said.
Minnesota is also the only competitive Senate race where a Republican candidate outraised the Democratic candidate in the third quarter of 2026, when Tafoya raised $4.3 million to Flanagan’s $3.8 million.
The two are running to succeed Senator Tina Smith, a Democrat who is retiring at the end of her term.
Newsweek reached out to the Flanagan and Tafoya campaigns for comment via email.
Walz and Flanagan Under Fire
The fraud scandal has become a sticking point for Democrats in Minnesota this year.
Republican attacks have centered around a nonprofit called Feeding Our Future, which was implicated in a $250 million COVID-era scheme involving fraudulent claims for child nutrition programs.
The Justice Department’s probe, which began under the Biden administration, has led to dozens of indictments, including members of Minnesota’s Somali community. Estimates of the cost to taxpayers have ranged from $250 million to $1 billion.
Republicans accused Walz of inadequately responding to the scandal. They argued that his administration did not do enough to prevent the alleged fraud, but Walz’s office previously told Newsweek that he has "worked for years to crack down on fraud and asked the state Legislature for more authority to take aggressive action."
Tafoya has tied Flanagan to the fraud scandal throughout the campaign.
"Why has no one been fired? The only real consequence we've seen is that Tim Walz was convinced to step out of his third term gubernatorial race because there was no way he was going to survive this. But Peggy Flanagan's asking for a promotion," she said during an interview on The Wall Street Journal’s All Things with Kim Strassel podcast.
Flanagan addressed fraud concerns in an interview with CBS News earlier in October.
"I would say this: I am incredibly angry with the fraud as most Minnesotans are as well, but I have supported the independent Office of Inspector General and harsher penalties," she told the broadcaster.
'Fatigue' Over Democratic Rule in Minnesota
Republicans believe they may benefit from "fatigue" with Democratic rule in the state, Schultz said. Democrats have been in control of the Minnesota governorship for 16 years.
"What's going on here in the state is dueling narratives," he said. "Republicans are talking about Walz and fraud, and the Democrats are talking about Trump and fraud and corruption. The question becomes again, given her close association to Walz and his low approval ratings, how is it tainting her?"
Kevin Parsneau, professor of political science at Minnesota State University, Mankato, told Newsweek that Tafoya doesn’t have "even odds" but does have a chance at flipping the seat.
"There is some degree that the 2026 will be an anti-incumbent, anti-status quo election, in addition to being a referendum on Trump and Republican control at the federal level," he said. "In states that lean Democratic where they’ve held state government, that might help Republicans, especially one who hasn't been in politics."
The fraud scandal, he said, has "given Republicans an issue to run on that resonates with Minnesota’s political culture that has a distaste for anything that smells of bad government."
"It’s given Tafoya an issue to run on as an outsider with no political record other than general public support for Trump and some Republican policy positions. It gives Republicans a better chance than we would otherwise expect given the conventional wisdom that midterms are a referendum on the president," ’ he added.
Operation Metro Surge Becomes GOP Vulnerability
Meanwhile, Democrats have emphasized immigration as a major issue after the state became the epicenter of the Trump administration’s ramped-up immigration enforcement earlier this year.
Two American citizens, Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti, were fatally shot by federal immigration officers in January amid protests in Minneapolis, fueling anger over the White House's hard-line approach to immigration and border security.
While there was more support for these operations in conservative, rural parts of the state, they were deeply unpopular in the Twin Cities, Schultz said. He said Operation Metro Surge likely "radicalized" Democrats to support Flanagan, a progressive, over moderate Representative Angie Craig in the primary.
There may be signs of an energized voting base in early voting, he said.
"It looks like Metro Surge may have motivated or energized the Democrats, which again works to the benefit of Flanagan in terms of her campaign," he said.
Parsneau said that Republicans are vulnerable "to the extent that Democrats connect them to the Trump administration."
"Like every other prominent Republican, Tafoya has a weakness on the issue because of supporting Trump and enabling what's seen as federal overreach," he said.
Ilhan Omar Probe's Impact on Senate Race
Minnesota politics was again upended earlier in October after the Washington-area home of Representative Ilhan Omar, a progressive Democrat representing Minneapolis, was raided amid an ongoing federal immigration probe.
A warrant listed several potential immigration offenses under investigation, including false statements and fraud in immigration paperwork, as well as a general conspiracy charge, The New York Times reported, citing a person familiar with the document. Newsweek has not independently reviewed the warrant.
Omar has denounced the probe, describing it as an "attempt to target political enemies and weaponize federal law enforcement" in a post on X.
Schultz said he believes the probe may "mobilize" Democrats.
"If Trump's goal here was to try to damage Omar and therefore cause damage to Democrats, I think it's boomeranged," he said.
Jacobs, meanwhile, cast doubt that there would be much of an impact either way.
"It’s certainly an issue and I think it deserves attention. But no, I don't think it is playing into the Senate race," he said.
Tafoya addressed the probe during an interview with Fox News, saying she is "running in a different race" and that there are people who are "concerned" about these allegations.
"No one is above the law. This doesn’t impact my race as much, except for what you just said, that we had single party rule in Minnesota for so long, and we are going 100 miles per hour in the wrong direction. It has led to this fraud," she said.
Is Minnesota a Blue State?
Minnesota last voted for a Republican at the presidential level in 1972, but it has still been close in recent contests, giving Democrats only narrow victories.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state by only about four points in 2024, a narrower win than former President Joe Biden’s seven-point victory in 2020.
In 2016, Minnesota backed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by less than two percentage points. Former President Barack Obama did better in the state, carrying it by nearly eight points in 2012 and more than 10 points in 2008.
Minnesota last elected a Republican senator in 2002, backing Norm Coleman. In 2008, he lost reelection to Democrat Al Franken.
Flanagan's Progressive Views May Alienate Rural, Conservative Voters, Experts Warn
Jacobs said Flanagan’s progressive policies could be a challenge in an evenly divided state, in addition to the fraud scandal. Despite its record of voting for Democrats in presidential races, it is still "pretty close to parity," he said.
"There has been research that shows that candidates who are perceived as ideologically extreme in either party tend to get less support, you know, six to 10 points, maybe, depending on the race," he said.
Flanagan has been endorsed by progressives like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and has embraced left-wing policies like abolishing ICE and Medicare for All. She has also embraced calls to impeach Trump if Democrats win majorities in Congress.
Minneapolis and St. Paul are both Democratic strongholds, and their suburbs have quickly shifted leftward over the past decade. But Republicans have still gained significant ground in the state’s vast, rural areas that used to be more competitive. Minnesota consistently votes to the left of other competitive Great Lakes states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Schultz said that Flanagan’s more progressive viewpoints make her "hugely unpopular" in Greater Minnesota.
"She needs a big turnout in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area and needs to hold her own in greater Minnesota," he said. "Luckily for her, probably about 56% of the vote is the greater metropolitan area of the Twin Cities, which leans very liberal."
Minnesota Senate Race: What Polls, Odds Show
Polling has shown a close race in Minnesota. Flanagan led by two points in RealClearPolitics’ polling aggregate as of Monday.
An InsiderAdvantage poll last month showed Flanagan up a single point, 46 percent to 45 percent. It surveyed 1,200 likely voters from September 28 to 29, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.95 percentage points.
Meanwhile, Flanagan led by four points in a Quantus Insights poll, 49 percent to 45 percent, among 720 likely voters from September 8 to 10. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
Prediction markets give Flanagan an edge. The Democratic candidate had an 84 percent chance of victory on Kalshi and an 86 percent chance on Polymarket as of Monday.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, another key forecaster, also rates the race as Leans Democratic. They shifted the race from Likely Democratic on October 14. Analysts J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik pointed to an "underwhelming" performance in polls.
What Happens Next
Early voting is underway in Minnesota as both parties consider the race to be competitive. The state will be closely watched over the coming days as Flanagan and Tafoya make their final pitches to undecided voters.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Robert Greenall and Jason Lemon