The Kansas City Chiefs got a taste of real, hard-nosed defense on Sunday Night Football. Pat Mahomes and that offense were held to 3 points, tied for the lowest in the Andy Reid-Mahomes era. It scares us Mahomes owners in fantasy football. Is he worth selling after a strong 5-0 start, or is this only the beginning of a Comeback Player of the Year charge?
Pat Mahomes' 2026 Season
Mahomes is averaging 246 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns, and 0.67 interceptions per game. He has a 65% completion percentage and 7.7 Yards per Attempt (NFL average: about 7.0).
The advanced metrics generally show how good the player actually is, volume and supporting cast aside. Mahomes ranks 7th in PFF Passing Grade and 9th in EPA per Dropback. He has only 5 Turnover-Worthy Plays and 1.4 Sacks per Game.
As a runner, Mahomes is average. He is averaging about 12 rushing yards per game. Mahomes has 2 rushing touchdowns and 1 fumble on 3.2 rushing attempts per game. He is 27th in Quarterback Rushing EPA.
Week 7 vs. Seattle
The Seattle Seahawks are obviously an elite defensive unit, eight months removed from a Super Bowl Championship. They rank 2nd in Defensive Pass EPA Allowed per Play and are 4th in Fantasy Points Allowed to Quarterbacks. So, a down Week 7 was no huge surprise for Mahomes owners.
Mahomes went 19-for-33 with 165 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He committed two turnover-worthy plays, but he was sacked only once.
As brutal as the game was, Mahomes will be just fine in fantasy football. Adversity tends to make a person stronger. The Chiefs can learn from that defensive masterclass.
Buy, Sell, or Hold: Pat Mahomes?
I wouldn't quite label Mahomes a league-winner. After all, he is just the QB19 in points per game. I don't believe Mahomes is headed for a decline. If anything, the Chiefs should become more efficient at scoring through the air as the weeks go on.
The Chiefs have 34 rushing attempts in the red zone for 11 touchdowns. They have 26 red-zone passing attempts for 9 touchdowns. Should we expect that to remain? I don't think so.
Kenneth Walker III is playing as well as anyone can imagine. He is averaging 20.0 rushing attempts, 117 rushing yards, and 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game. He is on pace for 1,989 rushing yards, which would rank 2nd in NFL history over the 17-game season era. He is also on pace for 22.7 total touchdowns, which would be the most in that same era.
I know Walker is good, but his season seems due for a regression, not a progression. As a result, Mahomes is likely to see an increase in passing rates, especially in the red zone. If Mahomes continues to average 1.5 passing touchdowns per game, it will be his lowest rate since 2019.
If you own Mahomes, hold him in fantasy football. His floor cannot fall much further, but his ceiling can rise to the heavens.
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