One day before the elections for the 26th Knesset, police are preparing for the possibility of clashes and public order disruptions on Election Day, particularly in the hours following the release of exit polls.
A senior police official estimates that voting day itself is expected to pass relatively quietly, but significant concern centers on 10:00 p.m., when exit poll results are published, and the potential for lingering tensions in the days that follow.
"I think the day after, as we call it, is no less sensitive," the official said. He noted that exit poll results could bring celebrating or angry citizens into the streets, and police are preparing for potential friction, confrontations, and disorder throughout the night, the following day, and into the weekend. The official emphasized that police cannot limit their focus to securing polling stations and maintaining public order solely during voting hours.
Large forces will remain active across the country after polls close, recognizing that election results could trigger sharp reactions among supporters of various parties and political blocs.
As part of preparations, police are also slated to secure five major party gatherings: four in Tel Aviv and one for Likud at the International Convention Center in Jerusalem. "Every setup like this, and I am referring to party events, requires a very large number of police forces," he stated.
22,000 officers, Netanyahu briefed on security
Despite expectations that Election Day itself may pass without major incidents, police are significantly bolstering their forces.
About 22,000 police officers are scheduled to participate in the security operation, up from about 17,000 in the previous election, an increase of roughly 5,000 officers. The senior official shared that as part of preparations, a comprehensive security briefing was presented to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir in attendance.
The meeting covered intelligence assessments, threats of hostile terrorist activity, concerns over public order disruptions, and the operational readiness of the police force.
According to the official, police have been preparing for the elections for about three months in coordination with the Shin Bet and the IDF. During the briefing, Netanyahu posed questions focused on security threats and force readiness.
The official assessed that the prime minister and his ministry director-general were impressed by the staff work and the seriousness with which the organization approaches the mission.
The importance of police independence during the election period was also emphasized during the meeting.
"The most important organization during elections is the Israel Police. It is completely impossible to hold elections in the State of Israel without an apolitical police force," the official said.
He added that even when operating under the responsibility of the National Security Minister, the police must maintain professional independence and remain free from political influence, both in practical conduct and in public perception.
Capitol order
Concerns over extraordinary events occurring after polls close are not new. Back in August, Maariv military correspondent Avi Ashkenazi reported that the defense establishment was preparing for what was termed "Operation Capitol", a scenario in which one of the two competing political blocs claims the results were forged, refuses to accept them, and acts to undermine public order.
The scenario was crafted following the events of January 6, 2021, in the United States, when supporters of Donald Trump stormed the Capitol building in Washington after his loss in the November 2020 presidential election to Joe Biden. Former head of the Police Operations Directorate, retired Maj.-Gen. Sigal Bar-Tzvi, led the team within the operations division that drafted the "Capitol" order.
The plan addresses a situation where a political group in Israel claims widespread fraud in election results and attempts to disrupt the vote count, or a scenario where tens of thousands of people attempt to storm the Knesset building.
According to a security official, the primary concern requiring special readiness is the possibility that one of the camps will not accept the election results.
"If I am Danny Levy, the Police Commissioner, one thing needs to bother me from morning to night. Not the deployment of forces on Election Day; police know how to do that best. The problem is on election night, after polls close and reports begin coming in from exit polls and actual election results," a senior retired police officer said.
He noted that "a dangerous scenario that could occur in these elections is that one of the leaders of the two political blocs declares he does not accept the election results and calls on the public to take to the streets. On the other side, the opposing camp will bring its people into the streets to safeguard the democratic process. In such a case, police will require assistance from additional bodies, chief among them the IDF."
Former officials warn: 'It would be a massive failure'
A series of former police officers and Shin Bet officials believe that the "Capitol" scenario must be placed at the top of the priority list in Election Day preparations. They argue that although it represents an extreme scenario, it must be prepared for through operational plans and advance exercises.
"It would be a massive failure if it turns out this scenario was not placed at the top of the list of contingencies and responses. An organized order must be issued detailing police force allocations and reinforcement units for police. Exercises must be conducted at National Headquarters, across all districts and units, and commanders should even participate in a war game. This is an extreme scenario, but it must be prepared for with the utmost seriousness," a former security official said.
Maariv has learned that Police Commissioner Chief Superintendent Danny Levy held periodic conversations throughout the period with former senior officials in the organization, some of whom raised concerns regarding the scenario.
One retired police major general expressed deep concern over the possibility of election results being challenged and criticized the conduct of various figures in the public and security arenas.
"The Shin Bet and police are the two organizations tasked with safeguarding democracy in Israel. They are responsible for overseeing an orderly transfer of power. Regrettably, today it is difficult to rely on the Shin Bet, and it is unclear to what extent it will act in a professional and statesmanlike manner.
"We are already witnessing the initial stages of this scenario, where a news channel broadcasts weekly results of absurd polls with figures that do not align with other surveys, serving as a form of preparation for a narrative of stolen elections. This is compounded by a campaign of delegitimization against the Central Elections Committee and the Supreme Court."
The retired major general added that he also fears the presence of numerous firearms in civilian hands and the potential for escalation into violent clashes.
"To all of this, one must add the armed militias established here in Israel over the past four years: regional defense units in Judea and Samaria, standby security squads across the country, and tens of thousands of weapons distributed to civilians. This is definitely a dangerous and violent platform for a civil war. It is the ultimate nightmare. This is a test of leadership, whether leaders are going to create an event around refusing to accept election results, or whether they will act with public responsibility even if they lose," he said.