Iowa Football and CFP Chances Take a Nosedive in ESPN FPI Rankings

Iowa's loss to Minnesota was bad. There's no way around that. It was ugly in all of the wrong ways, and it has cost the Iowa Hawkeyes in a bad way. The AP Top 25 and the Coaches Poll punished Iowa very severely for the loss. The updated ESPN FPI rankings followed suit, sending Iowa on a nosedive.

Iowa isn't even within striking distance of the ESPN FPI top 25

After flirting with the top 25 for most of the year and being ranked No. 25 last year in ESPN FPI, the metrics have taken this chance to slam Iowa for a loss, sending them way down the rankings. Iowa is sitting at No. 35 in the newest ESPN FPI rankings this week.

ESPN FPI Predictions for Iowa Football

The week-over-week changes in the ESPN FPI rankings are a bit staggering for the Iowa Hawkeyes. Sitting at 5-2, the metrics have dropped Iowa's projected win total by 1.2 wins, which is a massive one-week deduction in the data.

What really hurts Iowa is the College Football Playoff chances being cut down drastically. Iowa entered last weekend with a 22% chance to make the 12-team CFP field, and now carries just a 4.0% chance to finally crack the long-overdue code of making the College Football Playoff.

Riley Donald's Quick Thoughts

I get it. The way Iowa plays, which is a dangerous game when the offense isn't working, as we saw, can make life very hard and isn't very attractive to the metrics. Still, it feels like Iowa is being punished quite harshly here compared to the rest of the college football world, which is also in chaos.

I have to think that lowering Iowa's CFP chances to 4.0% is largely tied to only a 4.1% chance to win out. If Iowa is to win out and get to 10-2, my gut tells me that the Hawkeyes are going to be in the field. That's a lot easier said than done, though.

The remaining games on Iowa's schedule are games against Wisconsin and Northwestern, two ranked opponents, a road trip to Illinois, who just beat Oregon, a game against Purdue who dominated Minnesota, and the always-trick season finale against Nebraska.