LatAm Expat & Nomad Daily Guide — Monday, October 26, 2026
As of 1:35 a.m. US Eastern Time (ET) · 2:35 a.m. Brasília, Monday 26 October 2026 · storm advisory to 11:00 p.m. ET Sunday, rates to the latest published fixing, prediction markets at 1:35 a.m. ET
The Short Version
In short: Colombia’s permanent-visa transfer is due before 31 October, so start it this week. Brazil’s electoral court counted President Lula as the winner of Sunday’s runoff, and Tropical Storm Vance is weakening off Mexico’s Pacific coast.
01
Colombia: the visa transfer is due before 31 October. Holders of an older permanent-resident visa can transfer it online, and Friday 30 October is the last full day. Visas, Residency and Tax
02
Mexico: Tropical Storm Vance is weakening at 65 mph. The forecast track is shifting away from the coast, but heavy rain is still expected in western Mexico this week. Weather Watch
03
Brazil: Lula won the runoff with 51.79% of valid votes. The electoral court’s files show a gap of about 4.4 million votes, and no change of government. Status Board
What changed since yesterday: Brazil moved from voting day to a counted result, as the Status Board shows. Vance weakened from a hurricane to a tropical storm, as Weather Watch explains.
00Do Today
Countries are sorted by urgency, and each checklist runs visa, weather, authorities, then money. Every item links to the block with the details.
Colombia Before 31 Oct
- VisaTransfer an older permanent-resident visa online before 31 October 2026. Visas, Residency and Tax
- MoneyThe official rate for today is the weekend rate, set on Saturday and valid through Monday. Money Today
Mexico Today
- WeatherHeavy rain is expected in western Mexico this week, so check local weather-office notices. Weather Watch
- MoneyThe peso’s latest figure is Friday’s market close. Money Today
Chile Tomorrow
- AuthoritiesThe central bank’s rate decision comes Tuesday at 5:00 p.m. ET. The Calendar Ahead
- MoneyToday’s official dollar rate is 990.35 pesos. Money Today
Brazil Note
- AuthoritiesThe electoral court’s files show Lula as the winner, with a gap of about 4.4 million votes. Status Board
- MoneyThe official rate is still Friday’s, and Monday’s fixing comes out in the afternoon. Money Today
Argentina Note
- MoneyThe official dollar rate is 1,550 pesos, and the blue (informal) rate is 1,565. Money Today
- AuthoritiesThe country-risk gauge (the extra yield investors demand on Argentine dollar bonds) stood at 707 points on Friday. Status Board
01Weather Watch
Tropical Storm Vance South of Mexico Tropical Storm: 65 mph (100 km/h)
PositionAbout 345 miles (555 km) west-southwest of Acapulco and 275 miles (445 km) south of Manzanillo
StrengthMaximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h), moving northwest at 7 mph (11 km/h)
ForecastGradual weakening for the next several days, with the track shifting west, away from the coast
Next update5:00 a.m. ET · 3:00 a.m. Mexico City, Monday
The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said no coastal watches or warnings were in effect, and it still asks people on Mexico’s southwestern coast to monitor Vance. Through Thursday it expects 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) of rain, with isolated totals up to 7 inches (180 mm), across the Mexican states of Colima, Nayarit and Sinaloa and western Michoacán, Jalisco and Durango.
That rain may cause flooding and mudslides on steep terrain. Swells are likely to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to southern and southwestern Mexico for several days, so consult your local weather office.
Source: US National Hurricane Center, Public Advisory 19, 11:00 p.m. ET Sunday 25 October 2026
Atlantic Basin Quiet
The hurricane center’s Atlantic outlook says tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. That covers the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America.
Outlook dated 2:00 a.m. EDT Monday 26 October 2026
02Today’s Clock
Every time is shown in US Eastern Time first, then in local time. The Rio Times economic calendar lists no inflation, interest-rate or unemployment release for our countries today, so the clock follows the storm bulletins.
5:00 a.m. ET3:00 a.m. Mexico City
Complete advisory on Tropical Storm Vance.
11:00 a.m. ET9:00 a.m. Mexico City
Next complete advisory on Vance.
5:00 p.m. ET3:00 p.m. Mexico City
Afternoon complete advisory on Vance.
11:00 p.m. ET9:00 p.m. Mexico City
Evening complete advisory on Vance.
Hour not confirmedBrazil
Monday’s official dollar rate from the central bank comes out in the afternoon, Brasília time; no exact hour is confirmed.
03Money Today
Brazilian Real BRL
5.0377 reais per US$1
PTAX sell rate (the central bank’s reference dollar rate), Fri 23 Oct
−0.0006 (−0.01%) vs 5.0383 on Thu 22 Oct · real firmer
R$1,000 ≈ US$199
Source: Banco Central do Brasil, 23 Oct 2026
Mexican Peso MXN
18.6700 pesos per US$1
Market close, Fri 23 Oct, not the Bank of Mexico’s official FIX rate
−0.0425 (−0.23%) vs 18.7125 on Thu 22 Oct · peso firmer
MXN 10,000 ≈ US$536
Source: RT market data (a market-data provider), 23 Oct 2026
Colombian Peso COP
3,158.43 pesos per US$1
TRM (Colombia’s official reference rate) for Sat 24 to Mon 26 Oct
−26.58 (−0.83%) vs 3,185.01 for Fri 23 Oct · peso firmer
COP 1,000,000 ≈ US$317
Source: Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia, the financial regulator, via datos.gov.co, read 26 Oct 2026
Peruvian Sol PEN
3.4478 soles per US$1
Market close, Fri 23 Oct; the central bank’s interbank rate could not be read
+0.0122 (+0.36%) vs 3.4356 on Thu 22 Oct · sol weaker
PEN 1,000 ≈ US$290
Market close, 23 Oct 2026, same provider as the peso card
Argentine Peso ARS
1,550 pesos per US$1
Official sell rate (Banco Nación, Argentina’s state bank), updated Fri 23 Oct; blue (informal) 1,565 sell and CCL (dollars obtained by trading securities) 1,654 sell, both updated Sun 25 Oct
Official sell rate as of Fri 23 Oct · wholesale reference rate 1,529.5 on Fri 23 Oct
ARS 1,000,000 ≈ US$645 at the official sell rate, US$605 at the CCL sell rate
Source: DolarApi (a public exchange-rate data service), read 26 Oct 2026; wholesale rate from Argentina’s central bank (Banco Central de la República Argentina)
Chilean Peso CLP
990.35 pesos per US$1
Dólar observado (the central bank’s official daily rate) for Mon 26 Oct
+3.77 (+0.38%) vs 986.58 on Fri 23 Oct · peso weaker
CLP 1,000,000 ≈ US$1,010
Source: Banco Central de Chile, via mindicador.cl (a public data service), read 26 Oct 2026
The Brazilian official rate is still Friday’s because Monday’s fixing is published in the afternoon. The Mexican and Peruvian figures are market closes, not official fixings.
04Status Board
Brazil Runoff
Voting day (Sun 25 Oct)Lula 51.79%, challenger Flávio Bolsonaro, a son of ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, 48.21% of valid votes, full countWinner counted; whether the loser will challenge the result in court is not confirmed
Tropical Storm Vance
Hurricane, 90 mph (Sat 24 Oct, 11:00 p.m. ET)Tropical storm, 65 mph (Sun 25 Oct, 11:00 p.m. ET)Weakening, track shifting west
Argentina Country Risk
704 points (Thu 22 Oct)707 points (Fri 23 Oct)Slightly higher
Source: ArgentinaDatos (a public economic-data service), 23 Oct 2026
Colombia Visa Deadline
Due before 31 October (Sun 25 Oct)Due before 31 October (Mon 26 Oct)Unchanged, one day closer
05Visas, Residency and Tax
Colombia Before 31 October
Holders of a permanent-resident visa issued under the earlier rules must transfer it before 31 October 2026, under the Foreign Ministry’s Resolution 9316 of 2024. The transfer is required for the foreigner ID card from Migración Colombia, the immigration agency, and is done online.
Source: Cancillería de Colombia (Foreign Ministry), notice on the visa transfer deadline
Brazil Runoff Result
Files from the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), Brazil’s electoral court, show President Lula with 64,256,232 votes and Flávio Bolsonaro with 59,826,041. That is 51.79% against 48.21% of valid votes, which exclude blank and spoiled ballots.
Source: TSE results file, Sunday 25 October 2026
06What Prediction Markets Say
As of 1:35 a.m. ET (2:35 a.m. Brasília), 26 October 2026
Chile Rate Decision in OctoberKalshi (regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the US derivatives regulator): keep the rate unchanged 97%. 33,125 contracts traded.
Bank of Mexico Decision in NovemberPolymarket (a crypto-based prediction platform): no change 86.0%, a 0.25-point cut 11.8%. US$103,269 traded.
Bank of Mexico Rate Decision in November on KalshiKalshi: keep the rate unchanged 83%. 44,709 contracts traded.
How to Read ThisPrices are real-money bets, not polls, and each price is the implied probability of that outcome.
Why We Show ThisPrediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Source: Kalshi and Polymarket, 26 Oct 2026
07The Calendar Ahead
Tue 27 Oct
5:00 p.m. ET · 6:00 p.m. Santiago Chile: central bank rate decision; the previous rate was 4.5%
Thu 29 Oct
7:00 a.m. ET · 8:00 a.m. Brasília Brazil: IGP-M inflation for October (a price index); forecast 1.7% vs 1.57% before
Thu 29 Oct
8:00 a.m. ET · 9:00 a.m. Santiago Chile: unemployment for July to September; forecast 9.6%, unchanged
Fri 30 Oct
8:00 a.m. ET · 9:00 a.m. Brasília Brazil: unemployment for the July to September quarter; forecast 5.5% vs 5.3% before
Fri 30 Oct
11:00 a.m. ET · 10:00 a.m. Bogotá Colombia: September unemployment; forecast 9.2% vs 9.4% before
Fri 30 Oct
Hour not confirmed Colombia: central bank rate decision, as listed by the Rio Times economic calendar; the rate was 12.25%
Sat 31 Oct
Hour not confirmed Colombia: the Foreign Ministry’s notice says the visa transfer must be done before this date
Sun 1 Nov
Early morning United States: clocks go back one hour, so the time gap between Eastern Time and our countries changes by an hour
Forecasts: Rio Times economic calendar, 26 Oct 2026
08Frequently Asked Questions
Who Won Brazil’s Presidential Runoff?
Files from Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva winning with 51.79% of valid votes, against 48.21% for challenger Flávio Bolsonaro. Valid votes exclude blank and spoiled ballots.
Is Tropical Storm Vance Still a Threat to Mexico’s Coast?
The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) says the threat to southwest Mexico is decreasing because the forecast track is shifting west, away from the coast. It still expects periods of heavy rain across western Mexico this week, so keep checking your local weather office.
How Long Do I Have to Transfer a Colombian Permanent Visa?
Holders of a permanent-resident visa issued under the earlier rules must transfer it before 31 October 2026, so Friday 30 October is the last full day. Colombia’s Foreign Ministry says the process is done online.
09Go Deeper
Sources: US National Hurricane Center; Tribunal Superior Eleitoral; Banco Central do Brasil; RT market data; Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia; DolarApi; Banco Central de la República Argentina; Banco Central de Chile; ArgentinaDatos; Kalshi; Polymarket; Cancillería de Colombia; Rio Times economic calendar.
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