Photo: JNPA
Rates for containers moving from China to India have begun to cool as seasonal import demand, associated with India’s festival-driven consumption, loses momentum.
New data secured by The Loadstar points to a 10%-20% decline in spot rates for bookings from major Chinese load ports to India, particularly JNPA (Nhava Sheva) on the west coast and Chennai on the east.
For example, Indian importers are now able to book a 40ft shipment from Shanghai to JNPA at about $3,200 per box, down from about $3,800 a month ago. Likewise, rates ex-Shanghai to Chennai have dropped to $3,200 per 40ft from $3,900.
Ocean rates from other Asian hubs like Hong Kong and Singapore to India have also begun to trend down, after remaining elevated over the past two months, according to the data.
Hong Kong-JNPA rates are currently in the region of $3,600/40ft, down from $3,800 a month ago, while carriers are booking freight from Singapore to JNPA at about $3,400/40ft, 5% lower than in September.
Spot rates from Hong Kong to Chennai have fallen 15%, to $3,300/40ft, the data indicates.
But executives at leading intra-Asia carriers claimed the latest moderate correction should not be seen as the onset of a broader cyclical downturn as, according to them, trades from Asia to India and the Middle East still remained caught up in port challenges and delays across the region.
“Our Asia-India-Middle East vessels continue to operate under a lot of operational strain on the Persian Gulf end,” one source told The Loadstar. “Delays at Khor Fakkan are not getting any better.”
Amid sliding sailing schedules for Asian services, vessel bunching added considerable berthing window pressure at JNPA recently.
However, India-China trade indicators are bullish. According to available data, Indian imports from China, by value, saw a meteoric rise in the first three quarters this year, up 23% year on year, underscoring the strength of trade flows that had helped propel the resurgent demand for container shipping.
While trade between India and China has historically favoured Beijing by a massive margin, India’s exports to China have gained measurable pace in the past few years as a result of accelerated bilateral negotiations. The rebalancing has also provided regional carriers with reasonably better cargo yields on the backhaul.
Freight from India for intra-Asia operators in the past had been in negative territory, often involving $5 per container for insurance coverage.
The demand boom has also driven an influx of fresh capacity into the tradelane, mainly connecting intra-Asia markets into JNPA and Chennai in recent months.
India’s overall export trade outlook has significantly strengthened in recent months, despite the supply chain turmoil plaguing major trade routes. According to provisional data, India’s fiscal year 2026-27 H1 exports, by value, were up 18.5% year on year, growth mainly driven by electronics, engineering goods, chemicals, and agricultural products.
“The strength of the first-half performance lies in the diversity of its growth drivers,” said SC Ralhan, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations.
“Sustaining this balance, while expanding our market reach, will be crucial in the second half of the financial year,” he added.