Israel's parliamentary election may not bring an immediate change of government, even if the prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's opponents win more seats. He could remain in office for months as speculation grows over renewed military action against Iran.
Speaking to Euronews as Israelis headed to the polls on Tuesday, Yossi Mekelberg, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, warned that Netanyahu could remain at the head of a caretaker government with the authority to make critical military decisions.
The vote, Israel's first since the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023, comes after three years of war, deepening domestic divisions and demands for accountability over the security failures that preceded the attacks.
It is widely seen as a referendum on Israel's longest-serving prime minister, but final opinion polls suggest neither his governing coalition nor the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot is assured of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member Knesset.
Forming a government could take months, during which Netanyahu would remain in office, even if his opponents secured a parliamentary majority.
"There is no new government in Israel the day after the election," Mekelberg warned, noting that a caretaker administration would retain substantial powers, including the authority to authorise military action.
"It makes it more volatile and more dangerous," he said.
Iran and the uncertainty after the vote
The election comes just one week before the US midterms on 3 November, amid speculation that Washington and Israel could consider further military action against Iran following their military campaign.
Asked whether hostilities could resume after the American vote, Mekelberg suggested that political developments in both countries could influence the timing of any renewed confrontation.
"It's also a week after the election in Israel, the midterm in the United States, and between the two it can determine whether the war in Iran resumed or not," he said.
An opposition-led government might reconsider Israel's reliance on military force in dealing with Tehran, Mekelberg argued, while also questioning whether Netanyahu's political interests could influence future military decisions.
"I think we're entitled to be suspicious of the real motivation of Netanyahu, because his policies are very much intertwined with his corruption trial and retaining power," he said.
"So creating a crisis is not beyond the realm of possibility, including with Iran."
7 October and the demand for accountability
The election has also brought renewed scrutiny of the failures surrounding the 7 October attacks, which killed around 1,200 people and saw 251 taken hostage.
Three years later, Israel has yet to establish an independent state commission of inquiry into how Hamas-led militants breached its defences and carried out the assault.
Netanyahu's government has resisted a conventional state commission, whose members would be appointed by the president of the Supreme Court, favouring an alternative mechanism that critics argue would lack sufficient independence.
For Mekelberg, the issue raises fundamental questions about democratic accountability.
"The one demand that unites all the opposition, and I suspect mainly from the coalition as well, or those who support the coalition, it's a state commission of inquiry," he told Euronews.
He argued that an independent investigation was essential not only to establish responsibility but also to prevent similar failures.
"The more the government rejects the idea, the more people are suspicious that they have something to hide," he said.
Could a new government change Israel's regional policies?
A change of government could also affect Israel's approach towards Gaza, the occupied West Bank and neighbouring Lebanon.
Mekelberg suggested that an opposition-led administration might cooperate more closely with international efforts concerning Gaza and pursue negotiations with Lebanon over security arrangements.
Much would depend on the next coalition's composition, including whether parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel were involved.
Although opposition parties share a desire to replace Netanyahu, they remain divided over Palestinian statehood and the future of Israel's occupation of Palestinian territory.
"A two-state solution is not going to happen overnight," Mekelberg cautioned.
Instead, he suggested that meaningful change would require steps towards easing the conditions of occupation and creating a path towards a negotiated settlement.
Whether such a shift is possible will depend on the next government's ability to reconcile those differences.