Republicans may have gerrymandered some of their candidates out of a job. And the attack on the Postal Service is making it harder for one die-hard Republican bloc of voters to get their ballots in.
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Donald Trump’s schemes are rarely the best-laid plans, but they often go awry all the same. So far, that’s what appears to be happening to the president’s most visible efforts to tilt next week’s midterm elections toward Republicans. His nationwide gerrymandering campaign and attacks on mail voting are threatening to backfire in key states, even as his attempts to pressure election officials fall short in court. It doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods, but it’s a reminder that presidents—even ones bent on exploiting their offices for political advantage—have only limited power to escape accountability for their failures.
I thought gerrymandering was a pretty foolproof way to give one party a leg up. How did Trump screw it up?
Let’s be clear about one thing from the jump: Nationwide, Trump’s gerrymandering push will probably still help his party hang on to House seats—just fewer than he initially thought. That’s because gerrymandering can backfire when pushed too far. Picture two congressional districts in Texas, which redrew its maps last year at Trump’s behest. In 2024, Trump won one of the districts by about 5 points; Kamala Harris won the other by more than 30. To make both districts more Republican-friendly, the Texas Legislature stretched their boundaries such that Trump would’ve won each by about 10 points—a big enough advantage to help Republican House candidates win in most years, but small enough for a wave election to swamp.
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In fact, these examples are quite real. They describe Texas’ 34th and 35th Congressional Districts, which encompass heavily Hispanic areas that swung toward Trump in 2024. Except inflation, the war in Iran, and aggressive Immigration and Customs Enforcement actions have soured many Latinos on Trump, giving Democrats an opening. In the redrawn 34th District, Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez sounds confident that he’ll win reelection. In the 35th, polls show Johnny Garcia, a Democratic former sheriff’s deputy, competitive with his GOP opponent. If both Democrats win, the redrawn maps will constitute what political observers call a “dummymander.” Redistricting on the assumption that Latinos would continue to vote as Republican as they did in 2024 may also come back to haunt Republicans in Florida, where polls suggest that Democrats could win some districts the GOP redrew this year to advantage themselves.
OK, what else isn’t going Trump’s way?
His attacks on mail voting, for one. The Supreme Court blocked an executive order that would have restricted mail voting, but the president’s cuts to the Postal Service—implemented under Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency—are causing other problems. ProPublica reports that during this year’s primary elections, service reductions increased the rejection rate for late-arriving mail ballots in rural parts of Washington, California, Oregon, and two states with critical Senate elections this year: North Carolina and Ohio. Rural voters overwhelmingly support Republicans, so Trump’s antipathy toward mail voting threatens to undermine his own party’s candidates in the general election too.
How about all the lawsuits Trump is filing?
They haven’t been going well either. On Monday, a federal appeals court rejected the administration’s effort to force California to segregate thousands of mail ballots, which the government dubiously claims went to noncitizens. A judge in Alaska, meanwhile, sounds mighty skeptical of the Justice Department’s attempt to block certification of that state’s competitive Senate race if the Republican incumbent narrowly loses. And as the New Yorker reported this week, Republican and Democratic election officials have successfully resisted federal pressure to purge voter rolls of supposed nonvoters.
So can we mark our elections safe from Trump?
Not necessarily. Even if Republican dummymanders backfire next week, they might work as intended in less Democratic years. It’s also probable that we haven’t seen the extent of Trump’s attempts to meddle with the vote. He’s preemptively claiming that certain Republicans can lose only if Democrats “cheat,” which means lawsuits contesting the results are likely. As the New York Times reported today, state officials are bracing for a range of efforts to interfere, from federal officials seizing ballots to ICE raiding polling places. As the aftermath of the 2020 election proved, even Trump’s failed maneuvers can drive down public faith in the results and spark violence. Malevolence tempered by incompetence is still malevolence.
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Enjoy your night and see you tomorrow!