N.K.'s closer alliance
Pyongyang, Beijing, Moscow draw closer; Seoul, Washington cannot afford division
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's visit to Dandong, China, on Saturday was ostensibly meant to underscore the two countries' "blood alliance," but its underlying aim appears to be expanding economic cooperation with China. More than 70 percent of bilateral trade passes through the border city.
If expanded cross-border trade gives North Korea greater economic breathing room, efforts to pressure Pyongyang into denuclearization are likely to lose their effectiveness.
Sanctions have been virtually the only tool available to pressure North Korea to denuclearize. Until just a few years ago, China and Russia cooperated with international sanctions despite the risk of straining their relations with Pyongyang. But if China, which accounts for 90 percent of North Korea's foreign trade, appears willing to give Pyongyang greater latitude to evade sanctions, resolving the North Korean nuclear issue will become even more difficult. North Korea is already openly flouting sanctions while acquiring advanced military technologies from Russia.
Eleven UN member states, including South Korea, the United States and Japan, have established the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team to monitor the implementation of sanctions against North Korea. The monitoring mechanism must be strengthened, and diplomatic pressure on China and Russia stepped up. Achieving these goals requires not only a strong South Korea-US alliance, but also close coordination with Japan.
A US-China summit is scheduled for Nov. 18-19 on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders' meeting in Shenzhen, China. Speculation has periodically surfaced that the meeting could pave the way for talks between Washington and Pyongyang before or after the summit. However, the prevailing view is that a possible meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump was not discussed during Kim's visit to Dandong.
If U.S.-North Korea talks do take place, South Korea must ensure that it is not sidelined in discussions of the North's nuclear program and other security issues on the Korean Peninsula. Above all, effective communication between Seoul and Washington is essential to ensure that South Korea's position is adequately reflected in any negotiations.
The two allies must also work more closely to establish clear principles for dealing with Pyongyang and prevent the North from securing concessions, such as sanctions relief, without making meaningful commitments in return.
Last month, a road bridge linking North Korea and Russia across the Tumen River opened to traffic, further expanding Pyongyang's transport links with its two northern neighbors. These connections are expected to enable North Korea to reap military benefits from Russia while expanding economic ties with China.
The deepening alignment among North Korea, China and Russia is cause for concern. In return for sending troops to fight in Russia's war against Ukraine, North Korea has gained access to advanced military technologies while accumulating experience in modern warfare involving drones, electronic warfare and precision strikes. This poses a serious threat to South Korea, whose military has limited experience in actual combat.
As North Korea, China and Russia draw closer in an effort to reshape the international balance of power, the South Korea-U.S. alliance is showing unprecedented signs of strain. Differences persist over issues including the transfer of wartime operational control, the role of U.S. Forces Korea, joint military exercises and the sharing of intelligence on North Korea.
U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Michelle Steel recently described bilateral relations as experiencing "turbulence." South Korean Ambassador to the United States Kang Kyung-wha has also acknowledged limits to communication with the White House, saying that high-level consultations have not taken place as frequently as desired.
As Pyongyang, Beijing and Moscow close ranks, tight coordination between Seoul and Washington is more essential than ever. To that end, the two allies must move swiftly to ease communication strains and rebuild mutual trust. If South Korea insists on pursuing an independent foreign policy without making a serious effort to restore trust with its ally, it risks being sidelined by both Washington and Pyongyang.
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