Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party is set to be the largest party in Israel’s parliament after yesterday’s election, according to exit polls – while the country’s Arab parties’ vote has soared.
But with neither Netanyahu nor his centre-right challenger Gadi Eisenkot winning a clear majority, prolonged coalition negotiations are likely to follow.
It is the first election in Israel since the 7 October 2023 attacks and wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
Observers have described it as most consequential election in Israel’s history and a referendum on Netanyahu.
A coalition of opposition parties across the political spectrum, headed by former army chief Eisenkot and his Yashar party, is attempting to oust Netanyahu and his far-right coalition partners.
Early exit polls suggested that the anti-Netanyahu bloc will be the largest, at 52 seats to the Netanyahu bloc’s 50, with Arab parties holding the balance with 18 seats, up from five in the outgoing parliament.
With no majority for any party, each major bloc will try to form a coalition.
Under Israel’s proportional representation system, voters elect parties and 120 seats in the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament, are allocated by vote share.
After the final counts are announced, Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, will nominate the candidate with the best chance of forming government. The candidate has 28 days to form a 61-seat majority, with a possible 14-day extension, or else Israel votes again.
Prior to the election Eisenkot, who ran on a platform of hardline security measures, universal military service and an October 7 security inquiry, had a narrow lead in the polls, with Netanyahu’s Likud expected to lose seats.
The election saw record turnout, reaching 74.3 per cent by 8pm. In particular, turnout increased among Arab Israeli voters.
Netanyahu accused Arab parties of attempting to “steal the election”. On Tuesday morning he posted an AI image on X depicting a queue of woman on the way to a polling station wearing niqabs.
He told supporters to “stream to the polls” to vote for Likud and counteract the high turnout from Arab-Israelis.
Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have a hardline stance on Palestine and have ruled out a two-state solution. Any coalition between Eisenkot’s bloc and Arab parties would be an uneasy one.