With the local elections just about a month away, many government agencies, think tanks and academics have been warning about potential interference from China. Many have also said that Beijing’s interference methods have intensified to include transnational repression, targeting specific people.
In previous elections, there had been strong evidence of Beijing using cognitive warfare to influence the results. Those included spreading artificial intelligence-driven disinformation to manipulate voter perceptions, producing fake election polls, launching cyberattacks, colluding with influencers to amplify criticisms of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), and offering local political figures and religious leaders subsidized tours to China.
Such efforts did not stop this year. In a report to the Legislative Yuan last week, the National Security Bureau said that in the first nine months of the year, China spread more than 2.5 million controversial or false items of information online targeting Taiwan, 48 percent more than the same period last year.
China is also shifting its election interference efforts toward specific groups, such as offering discounted tickets to Taiwanese living in China to return home to vote, providing illicit funding to candidates and political groups, bribing voters by offering cheap sightseeing tours in China, operating illegal betting pools and hacking to steal election-related intelligence, bureau Director-General Tsai Ming-yen (蔡明彥) said.
Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Minister Shen Yu-chung (沈有忠) last week said that Beijing has shifted from supporting specific figures to employing “hardline measures” to intimidate, punish and deter targeted camps and people to create a chilling effect among voters.
Among the measures is transnational repression, which has clearly intensified over the past few years. For example, DPP Legislator and Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen (沈伯洋) and the civil defense group he cofounded, Kuma Academy, were added by China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) to its list of “die-hard Taiwanese independence separatists” in 2024; Beijing has now extended transnational repression to his family.
Earlier this month, prosecutors indicted private investigators who were hired by two Hong Kongers to allegedly monitor Shen’s family in 2024. As Shen’s approval ratings have rapidly increased in polls, the TAO on Oct. 14 announced sanctions against a second trading company linked to his father. It had sanctioned the first in June last year. The move was seen as an attempt by Beijing to influence the Taipei mayoral election, by attempting to economically coerce Shen’s family and launching a smear campaign against him.
Meanwhile, TV host Kevin Tsai (蔡康永) faced a backlash from China after he attended Shen’s campaign headquarters opening rally this month, including Chinese brands cutting ties with him, restrictions and digital erasure by Chinese social media and censorship platforms, criticism from Chinese People’s Liberation Army-affiliated media and the TAO calling him a “two-faced person.”
Such actions against Tsai, who did not even openly express support for Shen, demonstrate that Beijing is broadening the scope of its intimidation and coercion methods, and is increasingly becoming targeted on specific people. It is trying to silence and threaten Taiwanese public figures and companies for any association with parties and candidates that it dislikes, intending to create a chilling effect and induce political self-censorship within Taiwan’s democratic society.
Beijing’s transnational repression is also becoming more violent in some cases, as it works with local collaborators to surveil, recruit and physically harm people.
Prosecutors on Oct. 6 charged a Chinese man from Hong Kong over an attack on Japanese political commentator Akio Yaita in Taichung in July.
Five people were indicted last week for allegedly staging a traffic collision last month and injuring comedian Huang Yi-hao (黃逸豪), who had satirized Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平). They were allegedly paid by a Chinese national to do so.
China’s transnational repression threats and attempts to meddle in Taiwan’s elections must be taken seriously, not only by the government and the ruling DPP, but by all candidates and voters, because its long-term infiltration and election interference are not limited to the pan-green camp. They extend to Taiwan’s democratic society as a whole, and whoever steps on China’s political “red lines” could be targeted.
The government has stepped up protection for candidates and vowed to enhance national security, and the judicial and prosecutorial system are taking swift action. DPP lawmakers have also proposed amendments to tighten anti-infiltration laws and prevent Beijing’s election interference, but they need the support of the opposition-controlled legislature to come into effect. The public’s increased awareness of and support for the laws are urgently needed to safeguard Taiwan’s sovereignty, freedom and democratic elections.