Lula wins Brazil election but faces uphill battle to govern

“Even if you're not a Lula supporter, what was at stake was democracy versus the far right.” In Rio de Janeiro's beachfront Botafogo neighbourhood, Katia celebrated Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's re-election on Sunday, as supporters took to the streets. 

“I couldn't just sit on the sidelines,” she told FRANCE 24.

At nearly 81, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva defied expectations by defeating far-right challenger Flavio Bolsonaro with 51.7 percent of the vote against 48.2 percent.

Read moreBrazil's Lula beats odds and seals re-election, rival Bolsonaro demands annulment

After trailing in the first round, Lula's campaign stepped up its efforts to reach young and undecided voters.

“The sense of urgency created by coming second in the first round triggered this fairly massive mobilisation in the second round, particularly on social media,” said Bruno Ronchi, a doctoral researcher in political science at the University of Rennes who specialises in far-right movements, particularly in Brazil.

The result does not, however, signal the end of Bolsonarism, the political movement built around former president Jair Bolsonaro and his ideas.

“Bolsonarism remains a major political force among conservative voters,” Ronchi said. “Flavio Bolsonaro's result was not exactly a humiliating defeat.”

Lula now faces the challenge of turning a victory built on broad mobilisation into a workable governing coalition, while contending with a powerful opposition at home and international pressure from Washington and neighbouring countries.

'Little room for manoeuvre'

Lula is set to govern without a majority in Congress. The Liberal Party, led by the Bolsonaro camp, won 121 of the 513 seats in the lower house and 28 of the 81 seats in the Senate in legislative elections held earlier this month. 

“Lula will therefore have to govern with a Congress that is even further to the right and even more conservative than the one in 2022,” Ronchi said. 

Ronchi said the president would have to work with centrist parties despite their limited alignment with his agenda.

The president will depend on the Centrao, a bloc of centre-right parties that typically backs governments in exchange for political concessions and access to public resources.

“I genuinely believe Lula will have very little room for manoeuvre,” Ronchi said, predicting a government that would be “very moderate, perhaps even more moderate than his previous governments”.

Purchasing power and public security

Economic concerns will be one of the main priorities. Rising fuel prices and inflation have squeezed household budgets, while the government faces pressure to balance public spending with its commitment to welfare programmes.

“Purchasing power is undoubtedly one of the main issues, as it is in many countries around the world,” Ronchi said.

He noted economic indicators during Lula's first term had been relatively positive, with Brazil close to full employment.

Lula must also contend with questions over institutional stability. Flavio Bolsonaro has called for the election's second round to be annulled, citing delays in decisions over requests to extend voting hours. 

He compared it with Jair Bolsonaro's refusal to accept his defeat after the last elections. On January 8, 2023, just a week before Lula took office, a mob of Bolsonaro's supporters stormed Congress, the Supreme Court and the presidential palace in Brasilia, seeking to overthrow the government.

Public security is also expected to remain a contentious issue. Accused by his opponents of being too soft on crime, Lula will face pressure to tackle criminal groups and militias that control territory in several cities. 

During the campaign, he said he would support lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16 for heinous crimes, while the political right wants to reduce it to 14.

A counterweight to Trump?

Lula's victory also carries implications beyond Brazil. The country's re-election of a left-wing leader challenges the growing influence of right-wing governments across Latin America that have aligned themselves with US President Donald Trump.

Trump imposed tariffs on Brazil last year in retaliation for legal proceedings against his ally Jair Bolsonaro, followed by an additional 25% tariff on some products this year. Lula campaigned on defending Brazilian sovereignty in the face of US pressure.

Ronchi said Lula's victory sent a message to other countries in the region, where political shifts are often portrayed as an inevitable swing between left and right.

“This election shows that these trends are not inevitable,” he said.

He pointed to pressure from Washington, including efforts by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to secure a stronger American sphere of influence across the Americas.

Read moreRubio kicks off tour in Latin America as US vies for regional influence

“This victory shows that there are ways to counter this American ambition to assert its power across the continent,” Ronchi said. “It also demonstrates that left-wing movements can mobilise and reorganise themselves.”

But there again Lula's ability to act as a counterweight to Trump will depend on his room for manoeuvre at home. 

‘A bulwark’

For Armelle Enders, a professor of contemporary history at Paris 8 University and director of the research laboratory at the French Institute of Geopolitics, Lula's victory has significance beyond Brazil.

“This is a victory for democrats around the world,” she told FRANCE 24. “He represents a bulwark and that is very important.”

Ronchi said the election results reflected a broad mobilisation against the risks posed by Bolsonarism to democratic institutions, rather than the disappearance of the movement itself.

“There was also a kind of broad democratic front that came together, highlighting the distrust of Bolsonarism and the risks it poses in terms of breaking with democratic institutions,” he said.

For Katia, the prospect of renewed political tensions remains a concern.

“The coming days are going to be intense. It will be just as intense as the last election [in 2022, editor's note], when they attempted a coup. And Bolsonaro is not going to accept having lost the election,” she told FRANCE 24.

“I think we can expect anything from them. These are people who are absolutely not democratic. Something is brewing.”

Lula has won another term, but his ability to govern will depend on whether he can bridge Brazil's political divide and deliver on voters' concerns.