22h05 ▪ 4 min read ▪ by Fenelon L.
Summarize this article with:
Anthropic filed its S-1 form with the US regulator on October 26, in preparation for a Nasdaq listing under the symbol ANT. However, neither the number of shares nor their price has been set yet. On derivatives platforms, traders are already anticipating a valuation close to $1.9 trillion.
In brief
- Anthropic is preparing its IPO on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol ANT.
- The company has not yet set the number of shares nor the price range of the offering.
- Synthetic perpetual contracts suggest a valuation between $1.86 and $1.88 trillion, while Polymarket assigns a 32.5% probability to a capitalization between $1.75 and $2 trillion on the first trading day.
Anthropic initiates the process, but the price remains unknown
On October 26, Anthropic, PBC filed its S-1 form with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The company intends to list its Class A shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol ANT. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are among the contacts mentioned for the preliminary prospectus.
This step formalizes the IPO project, but several stages remain to be completed. Anthropic still needs to determine the number of shares offered and their price range. Moreover, the document is not yet effective: the company cannot yet launch its offer on this basis alone.
The matter of access to shares thus precedes that of the price, as we mentioned as early as October 8. Meanwhile, derivative markets provide their own estimates.
Nearly $1.9 trillion without official capitalization
Synthetic perpetual contracts linked to Anthropic showed an implicit valuation ranging from $1.86 to $1.88 trillion on Binance, Bitget, and other platforms on October 25 and 26.
However, this figure requires clarification. To calculate a market capitalization, you must multiply the price of a share by the total number of shares. Anthropic has not yet communicated the number of shares that will serve as reference.
These contracts do not represent actual company shares either. They track a synthetic index defined by each platform and confer no ownership rights in Anthropic. Their price thus reflects traders’ expectations, not an official valuation.
Polymarket refines expectations for the first trading day
On Polymarket, contracts focus on the capitalization that Anthropic might reach on its IPO day. The market dedicated to the listing date assigns a 94.5% probability to a listing before December 31, 2026, with a volume near $5.8 million.
Capitalization estimates are more nuanced. The $1.75 to $2 trillion range receives 32.5% probability, compared to 20.5% for $2 to $2.25 trillion and 17.2% for $1.5 to $1.75 trillion. Overall, markets assess about a 70% chance of capitalization over $1.75 trillion and nearly 38% of exceeding $2 trillion.
The comparison with OpenAI sheds light on this race to go public. Sam Altman postponed OpenAI’s IPO to 2027, while Anthropic moves forward with its plans. Beyond competition between AI models, both companies must also convince markets of their financial potential.
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Fenelon L.
Passionné par le Bitcoin, j'aime explorer les méandres de la blockchain et des cryptos et je partage mes découvertes avec la communauté. Mon rêve est de vivre dans un monde où la vie privée et la liberté financière sont garanties pour tous, et je crois fermement que Bitcoin est l'outil qui peut rendre cela possible.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.