The unexpected visit to Tehran by senior officials representing Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye under the Makkah Pact has raised an urgent question: Can three regional powers with different strategic interests persuade Iran to reconsider its course before a devastating military confrontation becomes inevitable?
The answer remains uncertain, but the diplomatic initiative is both timely and essential. At a moment when tensions between Iran, the United States and Israel threaten to spiral into a wider conflict, even a narrow opening for dialogue could prevent consequences that would extend far beyond the immediate adversaries.
The mission is not necessarily intended to resolve every disagreement between Tehran and Washington. Its immediate objective is more practical: to communicate the risks of escalation, encourage political realism and persuade Iran that compromise is preferable to a war whose consequences could overwhelm the entire region.
The growing shadow of war
The urgency of the diplomatic effort stems from mounting concerns about renewed American military action against Iran. According to the account cited in the original commentary, CNN reported that US officials believed American forces in the Middle East could launch potentially major operations within 96 hours of receiving an order from President Donald Trump.
If implemented, such operations could represent a significant escalation beyond limited strikes against military infrastructure. They could target a broader range of Iranian capabilities, potentially damaging facilities, disrupting strategic assets and creating conditions for prolonged confrontation.
The consequences would not necessarily remain confined to Iran. Retaliatory attacks, disruptions to maritime traffic and instability in energy markets could affect countries throughout the Middle East and beyond. Commercial shipping, oil supplies and regional economies would all face heightened uncertainty.
Military action might weaken Iran’s capabilities, but it would not automatically resolve the political disputes that have sustained the crisis. Indeed, a major offensive could deepen hostility, encourage further retaliation and make a negotiated settlement even more difficult.
This is precisely why diplomacy deserves one more serious attempt.
The nuclear dispute and the price of compromise
At the heart of the confrontation lies a fundamental disagreement over Iran’s nuclear programme. Washington is demanding sweeping restrictions, including an end to uranium enrichment, the transfer of existing enriched uranium stockpiles and the dismantling or severe limitation of relevant facilities. Tehran has resisted these demands, regarding enrichment as a matter of sovereignty and national security.
The disagreement reflects a substantial change from the diplomatic framework established under President Barack Obama in 2015. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action permitted Iran to enrich uranium to 3.67 percent under strict limitations and monitoring, while provisions of the agreement addressed its enriched uranium stockpile.
The current American position, as described in the original commentary, is considerably more restrictive. Bridging this gap will require concessions from both sides, alongside credible verification arrangements and guarantees that any agreement will be implemented.
Iran cannot reasonably expect negotiations to succeed if it treats every aspect of its nuclear programme as beyond discussion. Equally, Washington must recognise that a sustainable agreement cannot rest exclusively on demands backed by military threats. Diplomacy requires a realistic assessment of what each side can accept without abandoning its essential security concerns.
A workable settlement may not satisfy every demand. Nevertheless, a verifiable agreement that reduces the danger of nuclear proliferation and prevents war would be preferable to an escalating confrontation with unpredictable consequences.
Why Saudi Arabia and its partners matter
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye occupy an important position in this diplomatic effort. Although their interests and relationships with Washington and Tehran differ, they share a compelling reason to prevent a regional war.
Saudi Arabia has particular reasons to prioritise stability. The kingdom’s economic transformation, energy infrastructure, maritime connections and civilian population could all be exposed to the consequences of a wider conflict. Its experience of regional tensions also reinforces the importance of maintaining defensive capabilities without closing the door to diplomacy.
Riyadh’s challenge is to combine deterrence with engagement: protecting its territory and people while encouraging Iran and the United States to avoid decisions that could trigger uncontrollable escalation.
Pakistan and Türkiye can contribute through their diplomatic relationships, regional influence and ability to communicate with different parties. Their participation may help convey a message that military confrontation is not simply a bilateral dispute between Tehran and Washington. It is a threat to the security and prosperity of neighbouring states.
However, the three countries cannot impose a settlement. Their influence will depend on whether they can offer credible proposals, maintain communication with all relevant parties and persuade Tehran that restraint serves its long-term interests.
Regional security must be mutual
Diplomacy should not be limited to the nuclear question. A durable regional settlement must also address the wider security concerns of Iran’s neighbours, including interference in Arab affairs, support for armed militias, attacks on regional targets and threats to freedom of navigation.
These issues cannot be dismissed as secondary considerations. Regional states have legitimate interests in protecting their sovereignty, preventing attacks on civilians and ensuring that vital maritime routes remain open.
Any proposed regional security framework should be consistent with the UN Charter, international law and the principles of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. Such a framework must establish reciprocal obligations rather than impose responsibilities on one country while exempting others.
Iran should be prepared to demonstrate through concrete actions that it respects the sovereignty of neighbouring states. At the same time, all parties must recognise that regional stability cannot be achieved through permanent military pressure, selective application of international law or the denial of legitimate security concerns.
A credible agreement must reduce threats for everyone, not merely redistribute strategic advantages.
Tehran’s decision could shape the region’s future
The Makkah Pact initiative may be a last-ditch effort, but its significance should not be underestimated. It provides Tehran with an opportunity to reassess its position before diplomatic failure gives way to military escalation.
Iran’s leaders must weigh the value of preserving every element of their nuclear programme against the potential costs of war: damaged infrastructure, economic disruption, civilian suffering and deeper international isolation. Strategic independence means little if the decisions taken to defend it leave the country more vulnerable and its people less secure.
Washington, too, must consider whether its objectives can be achieved through a negotiated settlement rather than a military campaign whose aftermath could prove far more complicated than its opening strikes.
Ultimately, neither side can guarantee that force will produce lasting security. Both, however, can make a deliberate choice to pursue an agreement that limits the risks of confrontation.
The Makkah Pact countries cannot guarantee success, but they can help create the conditions for a different outcome. Their message to Tehran should be clear: compromise is not capitulation, and diplomacy is not weakness.
The question is whether Iran will seize this opportunity to move closer to its neighbours, embrace a more sustainable regional order and engage seriously with international obligations-or allow mistrust and maximalist demands to push the Middle East toward another devastating war.
There is still time to choose restraint. But that window may be closing rapidly.
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