Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will struggle to retain power, according to latest polling ahead of his first electoral test since the October 2023 Hamas-led attacks and the subsequent conflicts in Gaza, against Iran, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
Israeli media have given a range of forecasts depending on their affiliation, with the final preelection polls allowed under law pointing to a deadlock after the ballot, which takes place on Tuesday October 27.
Amid the uncertainty of the outcome, at the very least lies the consensus view about the importance of the election, which has been touted in some quarters as the country's most important since the founding of the state.
"This is the first opportunity since 2023 to really express, other than through protests, what citizens feel about the government," said Liran Harsgor, an expert on electoral behavior and voter turnout in Israel from the University of Haifa School of Political Science.
"Everyone feels that this is a very crucial moment," she told Newsweek.
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Who Are the Contenders?
Israel's parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats, meaning that a majority of 61 seats is required for a government to take power.
Under its proportional representation system, governments have always been coalitions. If no bloc can form a majority, a minority group can take power.
Polling puts incumbent Netanyahu and his right-wing Likud party in a tight race with Gadi Eisenkot, a former head of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), who formed the centrist Yashar Party only last year.
"It's not about the big parties in Israel. It could be that Netanyahu gets more votes than Eisenkot, but he doesn't have enough coalition partners," said Harsgor.
Also in contention are the far-right figures of Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir of Otzma Yehudit and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich of the Religious Zionist Party.
There are also former prime ministers Naftali Bennett, a right-wing politician, and Yair Lapid, a centrist, who are running on the joint B'Yachad ticket.
Other figures in the frame are Yair Golan from the center-left Democrats, Avigdor Lieberman from secular right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu, as well as two Arab party blocs.
What Do the Polls Say?
Israel.com has outlined the average of nine polls published over the last two weeks. By law, there could be no further polling from Friday until election day on Tuesday.
Yashar, Eisenkot's party, has come first in eight out of nine polls with an average of 22.1 seats, according to Israel.com. Likud averaged 20.6 although it did top the i24 News poll.
However, the parties of the outgoing coalition—Likud, Religious Zionism-Zehut, Otzma Yehudit, Shas and United Torah Judaism—have only 50.2 seats between them.
This is down from the average of 51.7 in January and far short of the 61 required to retain power.
The surveys that the website draws on are from the outlets Channel 12, Channel 13, Kan 11, i24 News, Israel Hayom, Walla, Channel 16, Maariv and ZMan Israel.
Some individual polls are quite favorable to Eisenkot such as a Lazar/Walla poll on October 20 giving his Yashar party 23 seats against Likud’s 19.
But the State of Israel website, which has averaged the last 10 polls puts the outgoing coalition in a stronger position.
It predicts 53 seats for the ruling coalition, two clear of the opposition bloc of Yashar, B’Yachad, Democrats and Yisrael Beiteinu.
"Israeli public opinion is deeply divided," Yoram Meital, professor emeritus of Middle East studies at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, told Newsweek.
“Netanyahu retains a loyal base of roughly one-third of the electorate, but recent polls reveal widespread skepticism toward his leadership,” he said.
Meital referred to how a Channel 12 poll this month found 58 percent preferred a government led by someone other than Netanyahu, compared with 35 percent who supported his continued leadership.
Two other polls, published by Maariv and Kan 11, showed Eisenkot leading Netanyahu in suitability for prime minister. Harsgor said that as it stands, it looks like no side can form a stable government but there is much to play for.
Harsgor said there will be a need for skill in negotiating for a coalition.
"It might depend on first the ability to cooperate with the Arab parties—and the turnout among Arab citizens is supposed to be higher compared to previous elections," said Harsgor.
"It looks like Netanyahu has fewer options than Eisenkot, because Eisenkot can try to negotiate with the ultra-orthodox and the Arab parties" she said. "I think he hopes somebody could leave Netanyahu and join the coalition."
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How Did Eisenkot Become So Popular?
Eisenkot's party is only just over a year old but has risen quickly in the public's estimation, boosted in part by his military credentials as the former chief of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).
"People, especially during war, want to feel that they can count on the leader's ability to deliver on security issues," said Harsgor.
Eisenkot served in Israel's war cabinet under Netanyahu but resigned over disagreements about the Gaza War in which his son, Gal, a 25-year-old soldier, died in action in December 2023.
His campaign has called for accountability over the security failures that preceded the October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas in which around 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage.
But Eisenkot has been careful with his rhetoric, balancing it with what people want to hear in a time of war. His criticism of the Israeli premier, "is not too harsh, so it's not only about Netanyahu," said Harsgor.
What Has Netanyahu's Campaign Focus Been?
Meital, from Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, said that Netanyahu wants to reinforce Israel's image as a powerful regional actor with strategic partnerships, influence and continuing security challenges.
He wants to portray the past three years as a period of major military achievements like the defeat of Hamas in Gaza, blows to Hezbollah in Lebanon and the weakening of Iran by Israeli and U.S. military operations.
Yet Meital believes this overlooks Netanyahu's responsibility for the security failures of October 7, 2023, and the consequences of the war in Gaza, including extensive civilian casualties and destruction.
“It also obscures the distinction between military achievements and long-term strategic success, particularly given the severe deterioration of Israel's international standing in Europe and among significant segments of American public opinion,” he said.
“Many Israelis are concerned that Netanyahu may seek another military confrontation with Iran for political considerations rather than genuine national security needs,” he added.
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Meanwhile, the opposition in Israel has challenged Netanyahu's security narrative by drawing a distinction between military achievements and long-term national security.
It has also highlighted Netanyahu's judicial overhaul, which sought to shift power from Israel’s courts, particularly the Supreme Court, toward the government and Knesset, and prompted widespread protests.
Also in the spotlight on the campaign trail is his reliance on far-right coalition partners, particularly ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
Meital said that the opposition in Israel consists of parties that have as common denominator their determination to prevent Netanyahu and his coalition partners from remaining in power.
"Beyond that, they are deeply divided on fundamental political and ideological issues," he said.
One obstacle is the widespread opposition to forming a governing coalition with Arab parties. "This exclusionary stance represents a major political and democratic blind spot within Israel's opposition camp," said Meital.
Netanyahu also faces legal challenges and has been charged with fraud, breach of trust and accepting bribes. He has denied wrongdoing.
What Might Happen After the Election?
President Donald Trump endorsed Benjamin Netanyahu for reelection and praised him as a great wartime leader but whether he resumes power or is ousted might take a while to determine.
After Tuesday's vote, Israel's president Isaac Herzog will nominate one of the leaders of the factions most likely to be able to assemble a government.
Harsgor believes that all the opposition leaders will need to be creative to find a way to form even a temporary government.
"They need to cooperate as one voice," she said. "The question is whether they will cooperate as one political bloc and do whatever it takes to quickly form a government—or will they fight and debate, which can take a long time."