A month ago, almost every recent Bitcoin buyer was sitting on a gain. Now about 70% of them are.
That drop in the short-term holder profit rate is the kind of shift Glassnode says may offer a better entry point for buyers betting on an uptrend.
What Glassnode is seeing
Glassnode reported the shift on October 26, 2026. The on-chain analytics firm tracks short-term holders, or STHs, defined as entities that have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days.
According to Glassnode, the share of STH supply sitting in profit fell to roughly 70%. In late September, that figure was close to 100%.
Glassnode’s data indicates recent buyers have moved out of what can be described as a strong sell zone. Translated out of analyst-speak: the people most tempted to take quick profits have fewer profits to take.
The firm also observed that STH profit-taking flows settled back toward their yearly averages in mid-to-late October. That followed earlier spikes in the month, which included some of the highest exchange inflows of the year.
The price backdrop
During the reporting period, Bitcoin traded between $80,000 and $82,000. Realized gains were reduced relative to realized losses, a sign that fewer coins were changing hands at a profit.
The broader supply in profit hovered in a 68% to 70% range over the same stretch.
Short-term holders are especially sensitive to these moves. Their cost basis tends to sit close to the prevailing market price, so even modest swings can flip them from profit to loss.
Glassnode’s metrics track realized profit and loss to gauge market sentiment. The October data points to normalization after earlier bursts of profit realization tied to significant price gains.
Why near-100% profitability is not always good news
When almost all short-term holders are in profit, the market is often stretched. Plenty of participants have both the motive and the means to sell.
That was the picture in late September, when the STH profit rate sat near 100%. The subsequent spikes in profit-taking and exchange inflows fit that pattern: recent buyers took the money off the table.
The slide to about 70% suggests that phase has largely run its course. Glassnode’s read is that this reset may improve conditions for fresh buyers, though the firm’s framing stops well short of a promise.
What this means for buyers and traders
The metrics worth watching are straightforward. If the STH profit rate stabilizes around current levels while exchange inflows stay near yearly averages, that would support the case for a healthier base. A renewed surge in inflows would suggest sellers are back in control.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.