Prediction markets: Kalshi gives Canelo Alvarez a 74% chance against Christian Mbilli, and Polymarket gives Coritiba FBC a 43.5% chance against Grêmio FBPA, as of October 26, 1:37 a.m. ET. Prices are bets, not polls.
Palmeiras are through to the Copa Libertadores final. They edged Fluminense 5-3 on penalties after a 2-2 aggregate draw, with the return leg finishing 1-0.
Estudiantes joined them with a shootout win of their own. They beat Flamengo 3-2 on penalties after two goalless legs to set up the final.
The final is scheduled for November 28 in Montevideo. It will be played at the famous Centenario Stadium, the historic home of Uruguayan football.
Today’s headlines October 26, 2026
| Event | Status | Angle |
|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras v Fluminense | Result | Palmeiras survive a penalty shootout to reach the final after a 2-2 aggregate draw. |
| Estudiantes v Flamengo | Result | Estudiantes win 3-2 on penalties after two 0-0 draws against Flamengo. |
| Brazil Série A | Weekend | Flamengo, the defending Libertadores champions, turn their focus to the league after their exit. |
| Copa Libertadores final | Upcoming | The final between Palmeiras and Estudiantes is set for November 28 at Montevideo’s Centenario Stadium. |
01
Palmeiras Edge Fluminense on Penalties to Reach Final
Result
Palmeiras are into the Copa Libertadores final after a tense night against Fluminense. They won the first leg 2-1 on October 14 and lost the return leg 1-0.
That left the aggregate score at 2-2, sending the tie to a penalty shootout. Palmeiras held their nerve to win it 5-3.
The result keeps Palmeiras on course for a major continental trophy.
In short — Palmeiras beat Fluminense 5-3 on penalties after a 2-2 aggregate draw to reach the Copa Libertadores final.
02
Estudiantes Dump Flamengo on Penalties
Result
In short — Estudiantes beat Flamengo 3-2 on penalties after two 0-0 draws to book their place in the final.
03
Flamengo Turn Back to the League
Football
Flamengo arrived at the semi-final as the defending Libertadores champions. Their run ended without a defeat in 90 minutes, after two goalless draws.
Their focus now shifts back to the Brazilian league after the Libertadores exit.
Estudiantes, for their part, played nearly the whole second half of the return leg with ten men.
In short — Flamengo leave the Libertadores unbeaten in 90 minutes and turn their attention to the league.
04
Final Set for Montevideo’s Centenario Stadium
Preview
The Copa Libertadores final will be played on November 28. The venue is the historic Centenario Stadium in Montevideo, Uruguay.
It is a fitting stage for two of South America’s most storied clubs. Palmeiras are chasing another continental crown.
Estudiantes, meanwhile, are seeking their first Libertadores title since 2009. The stage is set for a classic encounter.
In short — The final between Palmeiras and Estudiantes takes place on November 28 at Montevideo’s Centenario Stadium.
What Prediction Markets Say
Implied chances from traders’ prices, as of October 26, 1:37 a.m. ET.
Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli
Canelo Alvarez 74% · Christian Mbilli 28%
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC) · 421,672 contracts traded
Coritiba FBC vs. Grêmio FBPA
Coritiba FBC 43.5%
Polymarket · US$16,770 traded
Liga MX Clausura Champion
Guadalajara 29% · America 15% · Leon 11%
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC) · 555,792 contracts traded
Brazil Série A: Winner
Flamengo 58.5% · Palmeiras 39% · Fluminense 0.1%
Polymarket · US$52,299 traded
Copa Libertadores: Winner
Palmeiras 64% · Estudiantes LP 34%
Polymarket · US$38,801 traded
Colombia Primera A: Teams relegated (2026)
Jaguares 76% · Independiente Santa Fe 2.3% · Independiente Medellín 2.3%
Polymarket · US$23,493 traded
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
05
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQ
Who is in the 2026 Copa Libertadores final?
Palmeiras and Estudiantes will contest the 2026 Copa Libertadores final. Both teams won their semifinal ties on penalties.
The final is set for November 28 at the Centenario Stadium in Montevideo.
How did Palmeiras reach the final?
Palmeiras beat Fluminense 2-1 in the first leg on October 14. They lost the return leg 1-0, making it 2-2 on aggregate.
Palmeiras then won the penalty shootout 5-3 to advance.
What happened to Flamengo in the Libertadores?
Flamengo drew 0-0 with Estudiantes in the first leg on October 15. The return leg on October 22 also ended 0-0.
Estudiantes won the subsequent shootout 3-2, eliminating Flamengo from the competition.
In short — Palmeiras and Estudiantes reached the Copa Libertadores final after penalty shootout wins, with the final set for Montevideo on November 28.
Sources: CONMEBOL official match records for the 2026 Copa Libertadores semi-finals.
Updated: 2026-10-25T23:14:00-03:00 by Oliver Mason, Latin America sports correspondent.
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This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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