Bitcoin held above $79,200 for a third straight day on Monday, October 26, as traders braced for a week that puts Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, Thursday’s Coinbase and Strategy earnings and Friday’s $10.9 billion options expiry into three back-to-back sessions. Nobody wants to be early. The key Bitcoin news this week is the calendar.
Bitcoin trades near $80,300, flat on the day and down 2.4% in a week. Monday’s dip to $79,369 was bought within hours, just as Saturday’s low of $79,221, the lowest since September 18, was.
So what is pressing on the price, and which levels decide the break?
FED EXPECTED TO HOLD RATES AS DECEMBER HIKE LOOMS
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates this week, with markets heavily favoring another hike in December.
Chair Kevin Warsh faces a key communication challenge: explaining the pause despite persistent inflation driven by…
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) October 26, 2026
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Bitcoin News: What Is Pushing the Price Down?
Five things, and most of them come from outside crypto.
- ETF buyers turned sellers: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $635.6 million on Thursday, the biggest one-day outflow since June 2025, and another $137.9 million on Friday. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC led both days. That reversed more than two-thirds of the $1.07 billion the funds took in earlier in the week. Monday’s figures arrive after the U.S. close.
- The Fed is still leaning hawkish: Traders aren’t expecting a cut. Polymarket puts a 94.5% chance on the Fed holding rates on Wednesday, after September’s hike, and 5.5% on another raise. The statement matters less than Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference: with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.99%, any hint of a December hike would weigh on risk assets again.
- Oil is still above $100: Brent trades near $110 on Monday, down from Friday’s $116.72 close after tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. crude is back above $101. Expensive oil keeps inflation sticky, and sticky inflation keeps the Fed cautious.
- Leverage has been flushed out: Saturday’s drop to $79,221 cleared about $820 million in crypto liquidations, mostly from traders betting on higher prices. The reset is visible in funding: perpetual futures on OKX and Hyperliquid now pay the neutral base rate of 0.01% every eight hours, so neither side is crowded going into the Fed.
- A big options expiry on Friday: About 135,700 BTC of Bitcoin options, worth roughly $10.9 billion, expire on at 08:00 UTC, 35% of all open contracts on the exchange. Max pain, where the most options expire worthless, sits at $78,000. Calls still outnumber puts almost two to one, with the largest bets at $95,000 and $100,000, but the puts that matter are lower: the biggest put positions, the market’s downside hedges, sit at $75,000 and $70,000.
What Else Is on the Bitcoin Calendar This Week?
More than the Fed. The week’s events in order:
Strategy is the one to watch for buying. Its latest filing, on October 19, showed 267 BTC bought at about $82,900, taking holdings to 848,517 BTC at an average cost of $75,446. It had not filed a new purchase by Monday’s U.S. morning.
Bitcoin Price: What Are the Levels to Watch?
Bitcoin closed Sunday at $80,154, below its 50-day EMA at $80,808 for the first time since mid-August, and Monday has not won it back. Reclaiming that line is the first job for buyers.
BTCUSDT Chart 1D TradingView
Above it, $81,390 to $81,840 is the next barrier, where the 4-hour 50 and 200 EMAs meet. Then comes $82,850, which capped every bounce last week.
On the downside, $79,221 to $79,369 is the floor: Saturday’s low and Monday’s. A daily close below it would open the way to Friday’s max pain at $78,000 and then the 200-day EMA at $76,348, with Strategy’s $75,446 cost basis and the $75,000 put wall just beneath.
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With leverage cleared and funding neutral, the next move will come from the calendar rather than the liquidation engine. Three sessions, three catalysts: the Bitcoin news that decides which side of $80,000 the month closes on starts Wednesday, and until then $79,221 is the line buyers can’t afford to lose.
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