How Much Can The Orioles Actually Spend This Offseason?

Baseball fans are conditioned to expect next to nothing.

Decades of propaganda from owners whining about economic rules they repeatedly agreed to – like their unseemly advertising campaign during the playoffs – can make you numb and beaten down and grateful for the scraps these billionaires decide to toss your way. It’s hard to root for a team like the Orioles, whose billionaire owner did a quick heel turn that revealed his private-equity end-game and who can’t stop saying silly things (that will probably continue Baltimore’s All-Star Game banishment into perpetuity). And doing even sillier things, like keeping baseball failure Mike Elias and his ‘lil puppet sidekick in charge.

It’s hard to feel sorry for a guy who has run the team on the margins when he opines that guys owning sports teams were pocketing even more profits than his Carlyle Group, yet has the temerity to layoff the Oriole Bird and Mr. Splash. And, trust me, when Elias’s formally announces his new “GM” (Jared Banner is a glorified player development guy to replace Matt Blood, don’t let the fancy title fool you) Tuesday he will be straddling his usual BS stance of gushing about David Rubenstein being the best owner ever, eager to provide any and all resources, while also trying to lower expectations about doing anything significant with the payroll.

The grift never ends in Birdland.

But let’s get something straight – whatever losses Rubenstein could even pretend to run on a yearly basis don’t impact his liquidity or lifestyle whatsoever. He bought the Magna Carta for $20M and sold a ski chalet for $19M. This is all chump change to him, and if he wanted to run the Orioles like Steve Cohen did the Mets for a few years and try to buy a championship for a city without a World Series, he could.

But firing mascots amid a nationwide economic crisis doesn’t exactly signal that where his mind is at, does it? So, what’s a reasonable ask for one of the wealthiest guys on the planet? Well, let's at least shatter some O’s spending marks if you don’t want attendance to drop below 1.5M next season, because anyone who knows anything about baseball knows Elias is a fraud and you aren’t winning with him unless you increase your odds by taking significant big swings in trades and free agency.

Back To The Future

The only serious contracts hanging over Rubenstein are the $120M still owed Pete Alonso. Getting two pitchers extended at average salaries under $20M (Shane Baz and Kyle Bradish) amounts to peanuts (and he still owes Chris Davis like $29M in deferred payments through 2037). That’s it! Samuel Basallo’s extension was a steal. This guy has a clean slate.

Last year’s payroll was $164M, down slightly from the year before … and It’s almost identical to what Peter Angelos was running a decade ago, before another lease day made Camden Yards even more attractive for Rubenstein. Once you strip away contract options that won’t be executed – Ryan Mountcastle, Zach Eflin, etc. – there’s a base payroll around $140M for 2027 factoring in expected arbitration awards.

This billionaire can’t go $40M higher than Angelos ever went?

I mean he has billionaires behind him in this ownership group, too. This ain’t a one-man army anymore reliant on MASN to pay the bills. Let’s be real: Running a $200M payroll for a few years and trying to buy back good will that way, at a time when this team’s brand is broken, seems like it should be aspirational.

My suspicion is he’s telling you that this $160 range is as good as it will get. Just don’t mistake that for being all he could do. It’s just what his projections tell him in the least he’d have to do try to not to hemorrhage more fans next year. With that flexibility the Orioles could follow this infield blueprint and go get two everyday real outfielders and trade for a couple of cheap-enough rental starters and still have wiggle room to take on a decent contract at the trade deadline.

That’s if the goal was to win. And there’s no reason to believe anyone in The Warehouse is truly serious about that.

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