The battle to control Johannesburg after the November 4 local government elections is taking shape, with the MK Party ruling out a coalition with the DA, other parties setting conditions for partnerships, and political analysts divided over which political arrangements could bring stability to the city.
The competing positions have raised questions about whether Johannesburg can escape years of political instability that have threatened infrastructure projects, financial recovery and essential services.
Political analyst Sandile Swana said the MK Party, EFF, and ActionSA could play significant roles in determining the next administration, pointing to their mayoral candidates. He also identified the Patriotic Alliance (PA) as a potential coalition player.
Swana blamed the ANC and DA for previous instability, warning that competition for political positions could undermine future agreements.
"The greed and lust for power between the ANC and the DA actually collapsed, and they were never able to recover that."
He said negotiations could centre on whether the MK Party, EFF, ActionSA and other parties could establish a government excluding the DA, or whether the ANC and DA would pursue an arrangement resembling the national Government of National Unity.
However, Dr Harlan Cloete, a research fellow specialising in local governance and public leadership at the University of the Free State, argued that cooperation between the ANC and DA could provide greater stability.
"If you want political stability, both the ANC and the DA have got a longer track record in government, and so they've got institutional memory," Cloete said.
He warned that smaller parties could turn coalition negotiations into contests over positions, while repeated leadership changes disrupted municipal administration and service delivery.
"In Johannesburg, the smaller parties form the role of kingmaker really come into what is very transactional, and it is deal-making," he said.
The DA, however, is concentrating on winning outright control rather than discussing possible coalition partners.
DA Johannesburg regional chairperson and MP Luyolo Mphithi said the party was campaigning across the city's 135 wards.
"At this stage, the DA is focused on an outright victory," Mphithi said.
He said decisions about potential partnerships and municipal portfolios would depend on the election results.
The party's priorities include reliable water and electricity, road maintenance, job creation, public safety and tackling corruption.
Unlike the DA, which has deferred coalition discussions until after the elections, the MK Party has already identified a potential partner it will not support.
MK Party national spokesperson and acting deputy secretary-general Sifiso Mahlangu said the party's approach to negotiations would be guided by its political principles.
"The MK Party has made its position clear that it will not enter into a coalition with the Democratic Alliance (DA) in Johannesburg," Mahlangu said.
He said other partnerships would be considered after the elections, based on policy compatibility and an agreed governing programme.
The party wants improved revenue collection, credible budgets and stronger financial controls, while insisting that negotiations focus on governance rather than political appointments.
"Johannesburg needs more than an agreement that enables parties to elect a mayor," Mahlangu said.
Al Jama-ah has called for an inclusive approach to coalition negotiations, with greater emphasis on economic development and cooperation between different spheres of government.
Party president Ganief Hendricks said political parties needed to agree on a common programme that addresses Johannesburg's challenges while protecting the independence of local government.
"Al Jama-ah is a reminder that at the centre of coalition alignment of political parties (are) the people and aspirations of a better quality of life," Hendricks said.
He said municipal spending should support entrepreneurship and create employment opportunities for young people, women and people with disabilities.
Hendricks also called for national development programmes to be incorporated into Johannesburg's Integrated Development Plan, with municipal budgets directed towards their implementation.
Build One South Africa has also outlined conditions for potential partnerships.
BOSA deputy leader and Johannesburg mayoral candidate Nobuntu Hlazo-Webster said the party would work with organisations committed to ethical leadership but reject those implicated in corruption or promoting racial division.
She said BOSA would publish its coalition principles, including requirements for transparent appointments, financial accountability and measurable performance.
"Coalition agreements must protect critical infrastructure projects, sound financial management and essential services from political interference," Hlazo-Webster said.
RISE Mzansi, meanwhile, has declined to exclude potential partners before voters have cast their ballots.
National spokesperson Mabine Seabe said prospective partners must respect the Constitution, protect institutional independence and prevent political disagreements from disrupting municipal services.
The party also wants coalition agreements published so residents can hold participating parties accountable.
"It would be narrow and short-sighted to pre-emptively state that we will not work with specific parties," Seabe said.
Community First Movement (CFM) has also expressed willingness to join a coalition, provided partners make public commitments to improving services.
CFM deputy president Marlon Louw said the party would demand clear deadlines for addressing electricity, water, roads and refuse collection, alongside stronger accountability for municipal entities.
"We are prepared to work with any other party that commits, in writing and in public, to putting residents' needs ahead of positions and politics," Louw said.
He warned that CFM would withdraw its support if a coalition abandoned its promises to communities.
Cloete warned that Johannesburg's next coalition would need to withstand political disagreements without allowing instability to disrupt municipal operations and essential services.
"What the citizens desperately need is for that coalition government to be stable and to focus on delivering services to people," he said.
masabata.mkwananzi@nationalmg.co.za