The clock continues to tick toward the impending lockout on December 1st, and while there are dozens of wide-ranging effects of the league effectively shutting down until the MLBPA and the owners come to a deal, one effect seems to be getting overlooked.
As part of the annual offseason calendar, the Rule 5 Draft takes place during the Winter Meetings in mid-December. This is generally an uninterrupted event that coincides with the MLB Draft Lottery and the peak of offseason action in an otherwise dull, slow winter.
However, if baseball is locked out during mid-December, the Winter Meetings will not happen, which could lead to the cancellation of the Rule 5 Draft.
This is typically unimportant for the Yankees. They rarely make a Rule 5 pick, and when they do, like with Cade Winquest last year, those players are almost always returned relatively quickly. Sure, the Yankees lose more players to the Rule 5 draft than anyone else, but they usually lose someone considered replaceable, and it rarely comes back to bite them, except for Garrett Whitlock in 2020.
This year will be different, however, and it has to do with the mechanics of the lockout and the very important rise of the team's most promising pitching prospect: Carlos Lagrange
How the lockout could influence Carlos Lagrange's Rule 5 status
Despite the Rule 5 draft not being scheduled to happen until December 9, teams must decide who to protect from it by November 17.
If a player isn't on the 40-man roster by 6 p.m. that day, the team will expose them to be selected in said draft, where teams will have to commit to keeping the player on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2027 season. It's not utilized by many, but it is a tool used by rebuilding teams to find hidden gems.
That said, teams typically protect their most important eligible prospects. Last year, the Yankees protected both Spencer Jones and Elmer Rodríguez, who parlayed that trust into making their MLB debuts in 2026. While it's not a guarantee, being protected in the Rule 5 draft is typically the biggest indicator that a player is viewed as a viable big leaguer in the near future.
Enter Lagrange, who is eligible for the Rule 5 draft this offseason and must be protected. He would be the easiest pick of all time if he were left unprotected by November 17. For the Yankees to keep the promising fireballer, they would need to set aside a spot for him on the 40-man roster. Seems pretty simple, right?
Except it isn't. The lockout changes the calculus.
For a young player like Lagrange, who will need to be worked with through his command issues and diversifying his arsenal, coaching will be pivotal. The Yankees are blessed with some of the best pitching development in the game through the recently extended Matt Blake and Sam Briend, but the problem is that said coaches cannot work with any player on the 40-man roster during the lockout.
There is a strict no-contact rule between coaches and players in the MLBPA (which automatically applies to any player on a 40-man roster) during a work stoppage, which would mean that if Lagrange were protected, he would be unable to work with Blake until a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) is ratified, which could be next spring or bleed all the way until next winter.
While this might not be a big deal for established talent, it could make or break the careers of young players trying to get into the big leagues. You might think Lagrange's 40-man status wouldn't matter when the entire sport is being shut down, but there is a big exception.
Minor leaguers who are not on a 40-man roster are not affected by the work stoppage. They are governed by a separate collective bargaining agreement, so they can use all facilities and work with affiliated coaches during the lockout.
That is critical for Lagrange, who, as it stands, fits in that bucket. If he's protected ahead of the Rule 5 draft? He will fall into the first bucket and be unable to work with team coaches or work out in team facilities.
It brings about quite the gamble for Brian Cashman and company to potentially make next month.
The gamble that the Yankees can make for Carlos Lagrange
The Rule 5 draft was cancelled during the 2021-22 lockout that nearly took out games at the start of the 2022 season. It is currently expected that, due to how far apart the sides are, this year's Rule 5 draft will also be cancelled, as the lockout is likely to bleed into the spring, causing an abbreviated offseason.
With that, the Yankees could do something very risky. They could leave Lagrange unprotected, allowing him to operate as if nothing happened and continue his development during the work stoppage. At the same time, they would risk almost certainly losing him if the lockout ends and a new Rule 5 draft is announced.
It's considered extremely unlikely that a Rule 5 draft would be rescheduled in the event of a prolonged lockout, but with the chances higher than 0%, it is still risky for the Yankees.
Do they hedge their bets that the lockout will last long enough that the event is cancelled along with the rest of the Winter Meetings, or do they ensure they will keep Lagrange no matter what by protecting him at the November 17 deadline? This will surely be a decision pondered not only by the Yankees, but by everyone else around the league.
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