Bye weeks are where a bad story in college football gets set in stone.
Penn State has had two weeks to sit on a fourth straight loss, and the market has it laying barely more than a touchdown to a Purdue team with one of the worst defenses in the Big Ten. North Texas has won four in a row and is laying two touchdowns to a team that can keep pace with it. And Illinois lost its starting quarterback to a broken hand, so the total at Maryland is sitting in the low 50s against a defense that hasn't stopped anybody in a month.
Chaos continues in college football, let’s find some value in the Week 9 slate.
Purdue at Penn State (-7.5, 53.5)
I'm not going to pretend this has gone well for Matt Campbell.
Penn State (3-4) is 0-4 in the Big Ten, and QB Rocco Becht has five interceptions and three touchdown passes since conference play started. Campbell spent his bye-week press conference defending his quarterback. "We have complete faith in Rocco," he said, before adding that "our margin for error is really thin." He's right.
Three of those four losses came down to the last four minutes. They blew a 17-0 lead to Wisconsin on a 72-yard touchdown with 1:13 left. They lost by eight to USC in front of the biggest crowd in Beaver Stadium history after a fumble with four minutes to go. And at Michigan, Penn State outgained the Wolverines and clawed back to within three in the fourth quarter.
Underneath that record is a defense that ranks well by all expected data, while on the other side, Purdue's defense has been an eye sore game after game. The latest was a 38-26 home loss to Washington, in which Huskies QB Elijah Brown threw three interceptions in his first start and still put up 302 yards and three touchdowns. "You are not usually minus-4 in the turnover battle and win the game," Huskies coach Jedd Fisch said after the victory.
Buy low on a Penn State team that had all the preseason hype in the world, but after a rough patch the market has lost all faith in.
Bet: Penn State -7.5 (-109)
Florida Atlantic at North Texas (-13.5, 75.5)
Thursday night in Denton, and the home team has earned the respect.
North Texas (5-2) has won four straight in head coach Neal Brown's first season and scores 43.1 points a game, second in FBS. QB Tayven Jackson threw for 305 yards and three touchdowns in Saturday's 49-39 win at Navy, and Justin Stevenson caught eight balls for 209 yards. Florida Atlantic's defense is exactly as bad as you've heard.
The Owls (5-2) just gave up 608 yards to a 1-7 Rice team that was starting its backup quarterback, and Gael Ochoa ran for 259 yards and four touchdowns … but North Texas isn't much better. The Mean Green’s defense ranks No. 122, and Navy outgained them 506-477 on Saturday. Fourteen of North Texas’ 49 points came on a punt return and a fumble return. And away from home against real teams, the record looks different.
They lost by 36 at Indiana and by 14 at Texas State, and needed a one-point win at Tulsa. Florida Atlantic can keep up. QB Caden Veltkamp went 29-of-37 for 339 yards and three scores against Rice, and Easton Messer had 12 catches for 162 yards and five total touchdowns, the last one the longest punt-return touchdown in program history.
The Owls play at the second-fastest tempo on our board. They'll get their chances. The market sees the shootout coming, too. DraftKings opened this total at 69.5 and it's up to 75.5. In a game this loose, two touchdowns is a lot of cushion.
Bet: Florida Atlantic +13.5 (-110)
Illinois (-2.5, 52.5) at Maryland
The under starts at quarterback. Fifth-year senior Katin Houser broke his hand against Michigan State, and Bret Bielema said he'd miss four to six weeks. Freshman Michael Clayton II made his first start against Oregon and went 11-of-18 for 84 yards, sharing the job with Carson Boyd in the second half. Maryland (2-5) isn't scaring anybody with the ball either, and it managed 146 total yards against Ohio State.
But Illinois doesn’t need to throw. The Illini ran for 225 yards against an Oregon defense that by most accounts has been very strong, Aidan Laughery went 75 yards untouched for a touchdown, and they won 21-10. Bielema called the quarterback rotation "poetry in motion," and though that seems a stretch, their team looked to find answers.
What gets this game over the total is the Maryland defense — it's been a sieve. The Terrapins are 0-4 in the Big Ten, giving up 54, 48, 45 and 37 points in those games. In their last one, they led Rutgers 23-13 at halftime. Then the second half happened, and by the time the Terrapins got their last touchdown with a little over two minutes left, the lead was long gone and so was the game. Maryland plays at the 11th-fastest tempo on our board. And Illinois' defense (No. 93), gave up 42 at Ohio State and 37 at Michigan State.
We make this Illinois 28, Maryland 27, opening up value over the total.
Bet: Over 52.5 (-110)