Over nearly 10 years in Congress, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick has cultivated an image as a middle-of-the-road GOP lawmaker who operates above the partisan fray and is willing to buck President Donald Trump.
It's a formula that has allowed Fitzpatrick, who is among the most moderate lawmakers on Capitol Hill according to his hometown newspaper, to win swing voters and consistently outperform his party in a highly competitive district that opted for Joe Biden in 2020 and Kamala Harris in 2024. But in a year when Republican candidates across the country are being weighed down by Trump, Fitzpatrick is facing a stiff challenge from Democrat Bob Harvie in Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District, and testing whether his personal brand can carry him in a difficult national political environment.
"Brian Fitzpatrick is Brian Fitzpatrick. I'm not Donald Trump. I'm not anybody else. And that's the way voters should approach this," Fitzpatrick told CNBC. "I'm not happy with [Trump]. I'm not happy with his tone. I don't think he's done a sufficient job. I think leaders are supposed to unite our country, unify people. He has not done that."
The battle between Fitzpatrick and Harvie comes as Trump's approval rating craters, the Iran war drags on and consumer prices rise. The contest is one of the approximately four dozen House seats considered in play in the Nov. 3 election that will decide control of Congress for the last two years of Trump's term. Pennsylvania voters are often an indicator of how the country will swing overall, and because the state is on the East Coast, Fitzpatrick's district is one to watch as returns come in.
Democrats are on offense and spending money in districts previously thought out of reach — including Fitzpatrick's, in a race that could signal Democratic success outside of just the most vulnerable seats.
But Harvie, a former high school social studies teacher and county commissioner, is still a long shot to win. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter shifted the race in Democrats' direction, from "Likely R" to "Lean R," earlier this month. Erin Covey, who leads coverage of House races at the Cook Report, called Fitzpatrick Democrats' "white whale."
As part of Democrats' final push to unseat Fitzpatrick, Harvie was joined earlier this month by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and Democratic Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro for a rally in Bucks County.
"This is an incredibly important state," Jeffries told reporters after the rally. "The Commonwealth is a big swing state, and Bucks County is a big swing county. And so this is a critically important race."
Fitzpatrick grew up in Bucks County, which makes up much of the district, and is a former FBI agent who succeeded his brother, Michael, in 2017. He's a co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus and, according to a recent Philadelphia Inquirer analysis of his voting record, has voted against the White House and his party this Congress more than any other House Republican. The paper endorsed Harvie earlier this month.
Fitzpatrick is also part of a bipartisan group that's been outspoken as the White House has taken a more conciliatory tone toward Russia in recent weeks. He led a bill last week that would undo Trump's recent authorization of the U.S. purchase of Russian diesel. And he signed a bipartisan letter urging the Department of Defense to restore Ukraine's access to satellite communications that are critical to the country's defenses, after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the services were downgraded. Fitzpatrick threatened to pursue the firing of U.S. officials responsible for the slowdown, the New York Times reported.
Fitzpatrick is seeking his sixth House term and for much of his career has easily warded off Democratic challenges. Christopher Nicholas, a Republican consultant based in Pennsylvania, said Fitzpatrick "has been the most moderate member of the House."
"If they are able to beat him this cycle, it is definitely going to be a great night for Democrats," Covey said.
Harvie casts Fitzpatrick as a rubber stamp for Trump and questions the claims of bipartisanship. While Fitzpatrick was one of only two Republicans to vote against the final version of Republicans' 2025 signature tax and spending package, he voted in favor of an earlier iteration in the House that sent the measure to the Senate and set it on a path to passage. Fitzpatrick has said he supported the initial draft of the bill, but opposed cuts to Medicaid that were added in the Senate.
Harvie also called out Fitzpatrick's mixed record on tariffs. Fitzpatrick voted to overturn Trump's tariffs on Canada, but has also sided with most Republicans on procedural votes to limit Congress' ability to challenge some of the president's tariffs. Fitzpatrick voted in favor of a controversial, Trump-backed election bill, dubbed the SAVE America Act, which would require identification to cast a ballot and proof of citizenship to register to vote. And he backed a controversial GOP immigration proposal and Trump's bid to rename the Gulf of Mexico the "Gulf of America."
"When it comes to our economics in this country, people are suffering," Harvie, a Bucks County native, told CNBC. "The government is one that is totally detached from the people it's supposed to serve. Internationally, we've never been weaker and more isolated … and all of that is because of Donald Trump and because of people like Brian Fitzpatrick, who are just letting him run amok."
Fitzpatrick is still favored to win. But Brit Crampsie, a Democratic strategist based in Pennsylvania, said Democrats have a stronger candidate in Harvie than they have in past cycles.
"Bob Harvie, from his time as a school teacher to a local official, has deep ties to this community, and he's very representative of this community," Crampsie said. "He understands Bucks County and has high name ID."
In addition to Trump's low favorability and voters' economic concerns, Fitzpatrick and other Pennsylvania Republicans must also contend with one of the most popular governors in the country at the top of the ticket. Shapiro is expected to win reelection easily, according to recent polling. In Fitzpatrick's district, Shapiro is predicted to coast to victory by double digits, Covey said.
Pennsylvania also has three other neck-and-neck races that together could decide control of the House. Two Republican incumbents, Reps. Ryan Mackenzie in the 7th District and Scott Perry in the 10th, are seeking reelection in races labeled "Lean D." Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan, in Pennsylvania's 8th District, is in a "toss up" race, according to the Cook Report.
Fitzpatrick, however, noted he won nearly 55% of voters in his district in 2022, even as Shapiro won 59% of the vote in the district, evidence to him that his constituents are more than willing to split their tickets.
Independent public polling on the race for the district is sparse, though a recent internal survey conducted by Global Strategy Group for the Harvie campaign showed him and Fitzpatrick tied. A September poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies for the National Republican Congressional Committee and Fitzpatrick's campaign had the incumbent up by nine percentage points. A poll released Sunday by the New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena University found Harvie with a narrow 48% to 46% lead over Fitzpatrick — within the poll's margin of error.
Recent outside spending paints a competitive picture.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has committed more than $1.5 million to TV ads in the district since the start of October, while House Democrats' main super PAC has pitched in more than $7.5 million, according to AdImpact data. Prior to this election, neither group had bought TV ads in the district since 2020.
Republicans are also shelling out to shore up Fitzpatrick. The House GOP's main super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, and the NRCC have committed just under $5 million and just over $1 million, respectively, to ads in the district, according to AdImpact. And Trump's super PAC, MAGA Inc., recently purchased $100,000 in ads in the district opposing Harvie, according to an Oct. 12 FEC filing.
"Here's how you know where his loyalties lie," Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chair Eugene DePasquale told CNBC. "Donald Trump and MAGA Inc. coming in to spend $100,000 to bail him out because they know when push comes to shove, he'll be loyal to them."
Fitzpatrick has a significant cash advantage, with more than $709,000 in his war chest as of Oct. 14 according to FEC filings, compared with Harvie's just over $409,000 in cash on hand.
Reilly Richardson, a spokesperson for the NRCC, pointed to this fundraising disparity, saying Harvie had "a stagnant campaign" and "a significant cash disadvantage."