NSW Labor officials have warned MPs the party could lose more than a dozen seats and be bundled out of government in one term during a series of closed-door briefings organised by headquarters to ram home the threat posed by One Nation at the March election.
George Simon, Sussex Street’s assistant secretary, used a meeting of Labor’s Left faction last Tuesday to urge MPs against complacency, running them through parts of NSW where the party was vulnerable to One Nation. One source said that encompassed about 12 seats.
The briefing was one of a series Simon and his Right faction counterpart, David Dobson, have delivered to MPs and branch members, in which they have warned of a worst-case scenario where Labor could lose seats in the Hunter, Central Coast, south-west Sydney and southern NSW, potentially consigning the Minns government to a single term in power.
The warnings come as Labor delays opening preselection in the key Central Coast seat of Wyong, held by Gaming and Racing Minister David Harris, while he weighs up whether to run again. Harris would be likely to face a significant challenge from the populist right-wing party.
MPs in regional seats have told this masthead they are expecting One Nation to be their most significant challenge, rather than Liberal or Nationals candidates, while Premier Chris Minns said on Tuesday that if he lost the election, it would be to Hanson’s outfit.
“They’ll [either] be the biggest party, or the biggest party other than us, and they’re polling extraordinarily well,” he said.
While Cessnock has long been identified as the most at-risk Labor seat, electorates including Camden, Maitland, Port Stephens, Bega, South Coast, Swansea, Penrith, Kiama, The Entrance and Shellharbour are among those party officials are concerned about.
Dobson will travel to the Hunter on Sunday to address branches from the Port Stephens and Maitland electorates on “the current political environment, our strategy in the Hunter and the rise of One Nation across NSW”, internal party communications state.
The private warnings to MPs and branch members offer an insight into the prospect that a three-cornered election, and the state’s optional preferential voting system, could result in One Nation and the Coalition forming government.
The party is increasingly concerned the public expectation that Minns will deliver Labor a second term – buoyed by his personal popularity and divided conservative opposition – does not match what MPs are hearing directly from voters. One long-time MP in a seat seen as at risk from One Nation said recent door-knocking had been “a reality check”.
During a meeting of Labor’s Left faction MPs in NSW parliament last week, Simon said with the party’s primary vote below 30 per cent, a worsening economy had put the Minns government at risk.
Simon had tried to dispel any complacency that One Nation’s impact would be limited to Coalition seats, an MP said, and multiple sources at the meeting described his tone as “pessimistic” and “downbeat”.
One source present at the meeting, speaking anonymously to discuss internal party matters, put the number of Labor seats that could be lost between 10 and 13. “MPs and the commentariat are a bit complacent,” the source said. “If you look at the dynamics, and feel confident we’re going to be re-elected, that legitimately poses a risk.”
While it was a worst-case scenario, party officials have stressed to MPs and branches there is a pathway for One Nation’s NSW leader Mike Newman and Liberal leader Kellie Sloane to form a conservative government.
In that “diabolical” scenario, Labor would lose about a dozen seats to One Nation while failing to pick up any marginal Sydney seats from the Liberals.
Sloane has ruled out joining a formal coalition with One Nation but indicated the Liberals could work with the party.
Labor is governing in minority in NSW, and even picking up the seven Sydney seats held by the Liberals on a margin of less than 5 per cent may not offset the party’s losses in a worst-case scenario.
Some briefings have also focused on the opportunities for the government, with weak Liberal Party polling meaning seats such as Miranda in the Sutherland Shire, Drummoyne in the inner west and even Lane Cove in the north are viewed as in play for Labor.
In the latter, the party is likely to pre-select Vivienne Moxham-Hall, a public health academic who previously worked for Health Minister Ryan Park, as their candidate.
Party members door-knocking in those and other Liberal-held seats consistently report that Minns is particularly popular among conservative-leaning voters, such that even blue strongholds like Kellyville and Castle Hill in north-west Sydney and Gladys Berejiklian’s old seat of Willoughby have been mentioned as potential wildcards for Labor.
Some senior branch members and MPs were sceptical about the doom and gloom narrative circulated by Sussex Street, saying it was in head office’s interest to light a fire under colleagues and force the public to confront the prospect of One Nation governing.
The party’s risks were discussed at a meeting of Labor’s administrative committee two Fridays ago, two sources said.
“Everyone’s eyes are wide open. It’s nowhere near panic mode, but anyone who thinks it’s a lay-down misere is kidding themselves,” said a source who attended the meeting.
After the South Australian election, Labor’s internal research found some had voted for One Nation knowing a popular government and Premier Peter Malinauskas would be returned to power. Labor fears that dynamic is being replicated in NSW, particularly as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s popularity slides.
“It’s a serious problem,” one MP said of the risk Labor faced. “There’s a bunch of people who are angry because economic times are tough, and they want to send a message. They don’t want a One Nation government, but they just want to vote One Nation because they’re sick of what’s happening.”
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