Could Pauline Hanson and Matt Canavan duke it out for this seat?

As the fight for the right continues to play out between One Nation and the Liberal–National Coalition, one federal electorate — Capricornia — could become the battleground between firebrand party leaders Matt Canavan and Pauline Hanson.

The division of Capricornia includes Rockhampton and Yeppoon in central Queensland. On Friday, five-term LNP incumbent Michelle Landry announced she wouldn’t recontest the seat — currently held by 5.8% against Labor, making it officially a marginal contest. But it will be One Nation, not Labor, that is the biggest threat to the LNP’s hold on Capricornia at the next federal election.

Landry had 36.6% of the primary vote in Capricornia at the last election in 2025, while Labor’s Emily Mawson received 31.9%, and One Nation candidate Cheryl Kempton had 15.6% (one of the party’s highest vote shares in any seat that year). If the primary votes for Trumpet of Patriots and Family First are added onto One Nation’s total, it gives the minor right-wing parties a reasonably strong 25.3% of the vote as a starting base for the next campaign.

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There is widespread speculation that Nationals leader Matt Canavan will try to switch from Senate and run for Capricornia. It makes sense, given his presumed position on the LNP’s upper house ticket — Canavan was second-placed when he last ran in 2022 — is by no means safe. Canavan is also in line to become deputy prime minister (by virtue of being Nationals leader) should the Coalition win a majority at the next election, even if that idea seems far-fetched currently.

Unfortunately for Canavan, the conditions for the LNP in Capricornia are anything but favourable at the moment.

The latest MRP from DemosAU shows that One Nation, despite losing ground in regional and rural seats, would easily win Capricornia on 41% of the primary vote, while the LNP would be pushed down to just 20% and miss out on the two-candidate-preferred count (which One Nation wins 60–40 against Labor).

It was a similar story in a RedBridge/Accent MRP released in May, where One Nation was projected to win with 44% of the primary vote and 65% after preference distribution. The seat projection model created by 6 News election reporter Maggie Perry most recently estimated One Nation would win Capricornia by a similar margin to both DemosAU’s and RedBridge’s MRPs, based on the party’s continued high polling at the federal level in Queensland.

All of this is to say that Pauline Hanson has a massive decision to weigh up: does she leave the Senate to try and make a return to the House through Capricornia, shutting down any threat from Canavan and potentially significantly hurting the Nationals in the process?

Given the current polling and projections, it’s not the craziest idea, with Hanson surely starting as the favourite to win the seat. There are indications she would go for it, too, including One Nation’s national director James Ashby remarking to Sky News (now News24) in May that Hanson “might step down from the Senate and run for the seat that she lives in” — Hanson owns property in Capricornia — and subsequent reports that One Nation was considering opening an additional office within the seat.

However, since becoming Nationals leader in March, Canavan has shown he isn’t afraid of attacking Hanson and One Nation, arguing she has delivered nothing for Australians and clashing with her in person at News Corp’s Bush Summit in August. There’s no way the Nationals would let their leader be steamrolled by Hanson, so a big campaign — with an even bigger clash of personalities — would be expected. Such a fight would also be a dream for progressives, who would be happy to see either of them out of parliament.

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To avoid spending all her time fighting Canavan in Capricornia, Hanson may choose to run for another seat projected to have a high One Nation vote, such as Wright (where she also owns property). But it also seems possible that despite trying to position One Nation as a future party of government (even if Labor is still favoured to be returned as things stand), Hanson may still run for re-election in the Senate, with The Australian reporting that remaining in the upper house was seen as the current expectation, though party sources noted in that report the lack of a constitutional requirement for a prime minister to sit in the lower house.

If Hanson avoids Capricornia, it opens the door for her right-hand man – One Nation national director James Ashby – to run instead. He contested Keppel (which is part of Capricornia) at the Queensland state election in 2024, receiving 25% of the vote but narrowly missing out on the top two. Ashby says he’s been told for months by members of the community to run, yet the decision will be up to One Nation’s Capricornia branch that was launched one year ago.

Hanson has a strong chance of winning Capricornia next election, but it would still be a leap of faith to go from her now-safe Senate spot to what would be a fiercely contested race against Canavan. Yet if the One Nation leader wants to prove to Australians that her party can challenge for government, taking a gamble like this could pay off – big time.