2026 Mexico Open odds: Why favorite Wyndham Clark the best bet to win

The PGA Tour makes a quick turn from Port Royal in Bermuda to Vidanta Vallarta this week, where the Mexico Open will be contested for a $6 million purse and crucial FedExCup points for fall players looking to secure 2027 playing status.

Brian Campbell is the defending champion but you’ll have to scroll quite a ways down to find his odds to win outright (+22500).

The pretournament favorite is Wyndham Clark, a three-time winner on Tour this season including his second U.S. Open crown in June at Shinnecock.

Here’s a look at where Clark and the rest of the field stands ahead of the Tour’s fifth fall event and first of two stops in Mexico.

VidantaWorld Mexico Open odds (as of Oct. 26, courtesy of DraftKings)

• Wyndham Clark (+1125)
• Tom Kim (+1750)
• Ben James (+1850)
• Ben Griffin (+1950)
• Corey Conners (+2500)
• Johnny Keefer (+2700)
• Harry Hall (+2800)
• Marco Penge (+3000)
• Max Homa (+3100)
• Doug Ghim (+3100)
• Blades Brown (+3300)
• Jackson Suber (+3500)
• Neal Shipley (+3700)
• Zach Bachou (+3700)

Who will win the 2026 Mexico Open?

When handicapping a tournament it’s hard to tell where the line between bias against landing on the favorite outright ends and the desire to chase perceived value begins. The Mexico Open is perhaps the best juxtaposition of these two equally limited preconceptions in the 2026 Tour schedule.

And this wasn’t a situation anyone could have planned for but here we are: The weather in Bermuda over the weekend has created a certain level of randomness because of travel (see: chaos) that theoretically is ideal for a longshot to sneak in and topple what seems to be a top-heavy field. Add in the desperation that comes with the fall golf season, and the conditions are right for something shocking to happen south of the border.

But ... digging into the numbers suggests that oddsmakers might actually be doing a disservice to Clark at +1125. We make him more of a 7-to-1 favorite based on his elite approach game compared to the field. Additionally, he’s kept it superbly clean with the putter in 2026 — placing him No. 8 in strokes gained total. There are only two other players inside the top 30 teeing off this week. The second favorite Tom Kim and Doug Ghim.

Ghim was going to be our pick before crunching all the data on Clark. And it’s hard to root against (see: pick against) Kim at this point after what he did in his native South Korea three weeks ago, therefore we’ll offer all three up as recommended plays to win.

Mexico Open longshot prediction

Not to make this a pure shots gained total gush fest but we had circled Keita Nakajima’s name similarly to Ghim before putting in some research. As it turns out, Nakajima ranks two spots behind fourth favorite Ben Griffin in that category and is given more than double the odds pretournament so we’ll gladly pull the trigger on Nakakima at +4200 as he’s better than Griffin off the tee and on the green this year. All of that spells value!

And for those who think that number to win is a bit short for a player in search of his first career win, we encourage a pick to place as the 26-year-old Japanese native sits 129th in fall points and needs to sit inside the top 125 for conditional status next year.

First round prop bet: Pick to place

Sudarshan Yellamaraju to finish inside the top 10 after the opening round at +650 is going to be on the card this week after the young Canadian posted a 63 in Round 1 in his last outing in Utah.

He comes into Mexico rested, and max motivated at 64th in fall points. If he can inside the top 60, he’ll secure spots to Pebble Beach and Riviera at the beginning of next season.

Mexico Open best bet

Parlay time y’all. And we’re sticking with the youthful theme here: Ben James, Blades Brown and Johnny Keefer all to finish T-20 including ties. That pays out at +850.

Totally gluttonous like having an extra piece of Halloween candy: We will also be taking a flier on Tom Kim, Jackson Suber and Marco Penge to finish T-20 including ties. That one goes off at +950.

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