Defense Minister Martin Herem (Reform) told ERR that Estonia's 10-year defense development plan needs improvements in air and maritime defense.
This includes weighing up the procurement of light fighter jets for the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF).
The latest status of the national defense development plan was that it had reached the Government Office for approval, but you nonetheless found some changes needed to be made. Is that right?
As far as I know, the 10-year national defense development plan was issued by the Ministry of Defense back in the spring, if not early spring. And during that time, there have indeed been some changes in air defense, which had already begun to emerge in the war in Ukraine last year; the picture is now likely clearer, and for that reason alone. This is not a question of my having reviewed anything, but rather the Defense Forces as a whole have become better informed, and some things have also developed further based on the example of the war in Ukraine. So these changes stem from that.
The latest status of the national defense development plan was that it had reached the Government Office for approval, but you nonetheless found some changes needed to be made. Is that right? As I understand it, the plan was in fairly final form at the Government Office, awaiting approval alongside the state budget strategy (RES), and upon becoming minister, drawing on the commander's advice, you reopened it and saw things needed to be added and changed?
As far as I know, the 10-year national defense development plan was issued by the Ministry of Defense back in the spring, if not early spring. And during that time, there have indeed been some changes in air defense, which had already begun to emerge in the war in Ukraine last year; the picture is now likely clearer, and for that reason alone. This is not a question of my having reviewed anything, but rather the Defense Forces as a whole have become better informed, and some things have also developed further based on the example of the war in Ukraine. So these changes stem from that.
So, keeping the shipping lanes in the Gulf of Finland open and procuring additional air defense capabilities – most recently, you spoke about the need to acquire light fighter jets. Is that right?
For us this is not just the shipping lanes in the Gulf of Finland, but the sea routes toward the west as a whole. The Gulf of Finland is actually a secondary issue in that respect. But without these maritime connections, we would certainly die out very quickly – 80 percent of our trade currently takes place by sea, and the same is true for the Finns. So we must look at this as a whole together with our allies, to ensure that these connections remain under our control at all times.
Now, as for air defense and air-to-air defense, meaning those same jet aircraft, what Russia has come up with over the past year is essentially cheap cruise missiles, or jet-powered drones. And one of the most effective means currently in use against them is aircraft, jet aircraft. Whether we take the route of acquiring light jets such as the Hawk, L-39 or something similar, or instead look toward unmanned jets, is another matter. But I do think we should consider how to bring our air-to-air defense capability into play, so to speak. However, resources are limited, and we have to consider what we would have to sacrifice to do all of this.
In your assessment, is acquiring light fighter jets a genuinely realistic prospect at present? Are you proposing that this be added to the national defense development plan and that the necessary funding be found?
I think that this is realistic. But it is not only realistic, it may also be needed. How else are we to counter such threats? However, to do that, we will first need to review the broader air defense picture. What do we want to develop there, what do we have, and how would these aircraft, however many there might be, fit into it? It also depends on the circumstances: imagine that we are in a full-scale war. What airfields or runways would we be able to use for this? Maybe at some point we would no longer have them, so then the question arises of where the aircraft would take off from, or whether we would have to use something else, some other locations. And finally, how many of these aircraft should there be, at what point would we use them, and where would they operate? All of this is not yet entirely clear to me.
When did the commander of the Defense Forces provide his additional input on the national defense development plan?
I think it was a few weeks ago. I cannot say exactly right now. But it was during my time as minister, meaning within the past month. And it was sent to the minister of defense, not the Government Office.
And what did he recommend? Is that a matter between the two of you, or can you make it public?
That is actually where the issue of jets comes from, at least in part. But it also touched on other matters.
And now, as I understand it, you are due to give a presentation on this to the National Defense Council, which reports to the president?
Yes, I will be discussing these issues at the National Defense Council. Not in the form of proposals yet, but I will raise the issues we are working on. That said, I am not ready to present concrete proposals.
When might those concrete proposals be ready?
I really cannot say right now, but sometime this year.
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