Michael Penix Jr. is on a tear in his comeback from injury. He has seven touchdowns and zero interceptions over his past three games. Another star-studded Sunday came from another athlete from down south, Malik Willis, who led a high-scoring upset for the New York Jets. Both are being viewed as waiver-wire priorities, but who is better? The ensuing analysis focuses on talent and opportunity.
The Case of Michael Penix Jr.
Penix Jr. averages 231 yards and 1.8 passing touchdowns per game. He is completing about 67% of his passes.
A team's game script can become unpredictable. A team that usually passes at a high rate can be subdued for many reasons. So instead, we focus on talent and efficiency rather than volume.
Penix Jr. averages 8.0 Yards per Passing Attempt (NFL average: about 7.0). In five games, he has 9 touchdowns and 1 interception. Penix Jr. ranks 23rd in PFF Passing Grade and 10th in EPA per Dropback. He is being sacked 1.8 times per game and has 1.6 Turnover-Worthy Plays per Game.
We must note that Penix Jr. does not run the ball. He officially has 12 rushing attempts for 4 yards.
Though the year has been nice for Penix Jr. and the Falcons, he is far from elite given the above numbers. I would label him average and lacking in fantasy because of his low upside and near-zero rushing ability. He is the QB18 in fantasy football on a points-per-game basis.
In Week 8, the Falcons compete against the Buccaneers. They rank 7th in Defensive Pass EPA Allowed per Play.
The Case of Malik Willis
Willis averages 176 passing yards and 0.67 passing touchdowns per game, with a 59% completion percentage. He is also averaging 7.0 Yards per Attempt and has 4 touchdowns with 4 interceptions over his six starts.
Advanced statistics show that Willis is among the worst passers in the NFL. He ranks 31st in PFF Passing Grade and 30th in EPA per Dropback. Willis is also being sacked 2.5 times per game; a lot for a very mobile quarterback. He has 10 Turnover-Worthy Plays.
Willis's value comes from his legs. He is 2nd in Quarterback Rushing Yards with 233, ranking seven yards behind Josh Allen. Of quarterbacks with at least 100 rushing yards (14 Qualified QBs), Willis is third in Rushing Yards per Attempt (6.4). Willis ranks 2nd in Quarterback Rushing EPA.
For Willis to be viable, he has to rush for a whole ton of yards. He isn't very good at passing. In Week 7, 137 of his 208 passing Yards came after the catch, including Caleb Douglas' 63-yard touchdown, with 59 yards after the catch. Willis is the QB25 in fantasy football on a points-per-game basis.
The Dolphins will face the Patriots this weekend. New England ranks 9th-worst in Defensive Rush EPA Allowed per Play and 13th-best in Defensive Pass EPA Allowed per Play.
Waiver Wire Debate: Michael Penix Jr. or Malik Willis?
Of course, one week does not have to be the deciding factor here. Over a season, Penix Jr. should be much more valuable. His offense is much better, featuring playmakers in Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. Over the Falcons' last five games, they've averaged 31.0 points.
The Falcons also have the 18th-ranked Remaining Strength of Schedule. The Dolphins have the 2nd-hardest.
In both the short and long term, Penix Jr. is the better player, and I would much rather ride with him. Relying on a run-heavy quarterback for fantasy valuation is riskier, with fewer attempts to get points in chunks. Streamers can likely deliver the same weekly value by leveraging great matchups.
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