Pregame analysis as Jacksonville State faces New Mexico State on Wednesday.
The game
What: Jacksonville State (5-2, 3-0 Conference USA) at New Mexico State (3-4, 2-1)
Rankings: Neither team is ranked
Line: Jax State by three points
When: 7 p.m.
Where: Aggie Memorial Stadium (28,853)
TV: ESPN2
Radio: WLJS-FM 91.9 (Jacksonville), WVOK-FM 97.9 (Oxford), WKXX-FM 102.9 (Gadsden)
Four-down territory
1. One win away: Jacksonville State has earned bowl eligibility in each of its first three seasons at the FBS level. Marshall is the only other program to accomplish that feat. A win over New Mexico State would make Jax State bowl-eligible for a fourth straight season, but the Gamecocks still have ground to make up to match the Thundering Herd, who earned bowl bids in each of their first six FBS seasons (1997-2002).
2. Fond farewell: Wednesday will mark Jax State’s final “Weekday CUSA” game of the season. The Gamecocks have continued to dominate their Conference USA counterparts in midweek matchups, going 2-0 in October. Since joining the league in 2023, Jax State has compiled a 13-1 record in “Weekday CUSA” games.
3. Protecting Creel: Jax State’s offensive line has done an excellent job protecting Caden Creel this season. Through seven games, the Gamecocks have allowed just seven sacks, tying for first in Conference USA and 13th nationally. That protection has helped Creel emerge as one of the league’s top playmakers. The senior quarterback leads CUSA in total offense, averaging 305.3 yards per game. The offensive line will need to pay extra attention to New Mexico State’s Gabe Peterson, who leads the conference with 5.5 sacks, when the teams meet Wednesday.
4. Much needed rest: When Jax State takes the field in Las Cruces, N.M., 15 days will have passed since its last game. It’s given the Gamecocks time to heal up. Linebackers Mac Sanders and Walker O’Steen are out for the season, but head coach Charles Kelly said other than those two, he expects to have most everybody else back against New Mexico State.
Key matchup
Jax State’s front seven vs. New Mexico State running back James Jones: Kelly praised New Mexico State, saying the Aggies have “the best running attack” the Gamecocks have faced this season. It all starts with Jones, who leads the league with 777 rushing yards on 119 carries. He’s averaging 6.5 yards per carry and has scored four rushing touchdowns. Jones is coming off his best game of the season, rushing for 178 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries against Sam Houston.
Jax State’s run defense has been average this season, allowing 156.4 rushing yards per game, sixth among Conference USA teams. With Sanders and O’Steen out for the season, the middle of the Gamecocks’ defense will be tested by Jones.
By the numbers
3.3: Yards per carry allowed by the New Mexico State defense, which leads CUSA
4: Second-half touchdowns allowed by the Jax State defense
7: Each of Jax State's last seven road CUSA games have been decided by seven points or less
65: Consecutive games that Jax State has scored a rushing touchdown
Prediction
New Mexico State specializes in running the football and stopping the run. That may have been a problem for Jax State a year ago when the Gamecocks relied heavily on the strength of their ground game. Quarterback Caden Creel has developed into a strong passer this season. He's completed 67.2 percent of his passes for 1,637 yards and 12 touchdowns. He ranks second in the league in passing yards and is tied for first in touchdown passes.
The key for Jax State will be slowing down Jones. If the Gamecocks can do that, Creel should be able to make enough plays to keep his team undefeated in CUSA play.
Jax State 27, New Mexico State 24