Turkey Politics Explained, Who Holds Power in 2026

TURKEY · POLITICS

How Power Works in Ankara

Turkey is a presidential republic in which one person is both head of state and head of government. Erdoğan appoints ministers and vice presidents, and the system was approved in a 2017 referendum and took effect after the 2018 elections.

This guide is part of The Rio Times series on European politics. See also our guides to Spain and Germany’s AfD debate.

Parliament, the 600-seat Grand National Assembly, is elected every five years with a 7% national threshold. Today 592 seats are filled, and the AKP and its ally, the MHP, together hold about 327.

Elections are due in May 2028. Erdoğan has already served two terms as president and cannot normally run again.

The Fight Over an Early Election

Article 116 of the constitution contains an exception: if parliament itself calls an early election during a president’s second term, that president may run again. The vote needs three-fifths of the Assembly, or 360 members.

Erdoğan’s chief adviser Mehmet Uçum said in June that elections would most likely be held on 16 April 2028, the date of the 2017 referendum. Devlet Bahçeli, the MHP leader and Erdoğan’s key ally, has backed an earlier vote and says the difference in timing is small.

The AKP and MHP are about 33 votes short of 360. They would need defections or votes from at least part of the opposition, which is why the opposition’s split matters so much.

An Opposition in Pieces

On 21 May 2026 an appeals court in Ankara ruled null the 2023 congress of the main opposition party, the CHP, citing alleged vote-buying and pressure on delegates. It put the former leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who lost the 2023 presidential race to Erdoğan, back in charge in place of Özgür Özel, and critics call the ruling political interference.

Özel launched a new party, Yeni Parti (New Party), on 24 July. It has 91 MPs, making it the largest opposition group, and it has the backing of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, who is in prison.

The CHP, Turkey’s oldest party, now has 44 MPs and is the fifth-largest group in parliament. Kılıçdaroğlu leads it.

Local Power Is Moving Too

İzmir Mayor Cemil Tugay, who had left the CHP, joined the AKP on 7 October, and Erdoğan pinned the party badge on him. İzmir is Turkey’s third-largest city.In Istanbul’s Ataşehir district the AKP-MHP alliance’s candidate Serdar Orhan was elected deputy mayor on 10 October, after the elected mayor was arrested in April.

Opposition councillors boycotted the vote.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket, where US$177,000 has been traded, prices a 4.5% chance that Turkey schedules early presidential elections in 2026. A separate market, with US$651,000 traded, gives 5.0% to Erdoğan being out by the end of 2026.

Two US-related markets are also active. CAATSA is the 2017 US law that sanctions countries buying Russian weapons, and Polymarket prices a 29.0% chance that the US lifts those sanctions on Turkey by 31 December.

It also gives 41.5% that Turkey rejoins the F-35 fighter programme by 30 June 2027.These prices are bets, not polls, and they were read on 26 October at 1:32 a.m. ET.

They show what traders expect, not what any government has decided.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for US Readers

Turkey is a NATO member on the Bosporus Strait, the sea route between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, so its politics reach US security interests. Traders also bet on whether Washington lifts sanctions on Ankara and readmits it to the F-35 fighter programme.

For US investors, election timing and the opposition’s split affect the lira and regulatory risk. An early vote on 16 April 2028 would bring Turkish political risk forward by about a month.

Visitors to Istanbul and Ankara may meet protests after major court rulings. After the CHP decision in May, supporters occupied the party’s headquarters until police ended it on 24 May.

What Is Not Known

Parliament has not voted on an early election, and no date is official. Uçum’s 16 April 2028 date is a proposal from the president’s office, not a decision.

It is not known whether the AKP and MHP can find the 33 extra votes they need. Whether Yeni Parti and the CHP will cooperate in an election is also open.

This guide gives no national polling. We could not confirm current figures for a possible race between Erdoğan and Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who runs Turkey in October 2026?

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is both head of state and head of government. His AKP and the nationalist MHP hold about 327 of 592 filled seats in parliament.

Can Erdoğan run for president again?

Not in the regular May 2028 election, because he is in his second term. If parliament calls an early election with 360 votes, the constitution allows him to run again.

What happened to Turkey’s main opposition party?

A court ruled the CHP’s 2023 congress null on 21 May and put Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu back in charge. Özgür Özel then founded Yeni Parti, which has 91 MPs against the CHP’s 44.

Who might challenge Erdoğan?

Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş and the jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu are the names most discussed. Neither has been formally nominated.

What do prediction markets say about Turkey?

On 26 October Polymarket gave a 4.5% chance that Turkey schedules early presidential elections in 2026. These prices are bets, not polls.

Sources: Grand National Assembly of Türkiye, seat distribution; Constitution of Türkiye, Article 116; Supreme Election Council of Türkiye; Polymarket public market data, read 26 October 2026.