As the first exit polls emerged on Tuesday night, showing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud as the largest party but Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc holding more seats overall, one wonders what must be going through President Isaac Herzog's mind.
After all, Herzog will soon have to decide which of the two men gets the first chance to form Israel's next government, a decision that could prove particularly complicated given the apparent divisions emerging from the ballot box.
Initial projections from Kan and Channel 13 gave Likud 25 seats, compared with 23 for Eisenkot's Yashar party, while placing the opposition bloc on 53 seats against Netanyahu's 50. Neither side, however, appears to have the 61 seats necessary to command a Knesset majority.
Under Israeli law, the president must consult the Knesset factions before deciding who gets the task of forming a government.
Netanyahu will undoubtedly point to Likud's position as the largest individual party, while Eisenkot has an equally compelling argument in the game of parliamentary arithmetic, pointing to his larger bloc and the bigger chance of forming a government - particularly if the parties opposed to Netanyahu can agree on a common candidate.
The question of how Eisenkot might assemble a coalition remains unanswered. Few of the parties have declared a willingness to sit with the Arab parties, who are projected to receive a record-high 18 mandates, except for Yair Golan’s Democrats.
Herzog knows how this game works well, having led the Labor Party and served as opposition leader before assuming the presidency in 2021. He will also be very aware of the political tensions that have characterized much of his presidency, and the criticism that could follow whichever decision he ultimately makes.
We should remember these are only exit polls, and the final results may still change, particularly with several smaller parties hovering around the electoral threshold.
Nevertheless, the president may soon face the most difficult decision of his tenure, as two political leaders with competing claims to the premiership seek his approval to begin assembling Israel's next government.
Will he go with the long-time leader of Israel, the perceived protector who has led Israel in a multi-front war against its enemies? Or against the potential leader of the largest bloc, at a time when millions of Israelis have taken to the polls and demanded change. Whichever candidate Herzog eventually chooses, millions of Israelis will almost certainly be convinced the other should have had the first opportunity.