Israel is holding its breath ahead of the decisive moment. After months of political battles, heated campaigns, accusations and efforts to mobilize every last vote, the moment the entire political system has been preparing for has arrived: the release of the exit polls for the 26th Knesset elections tonight (Tuesday).
When polling stations close at 10 p.m., television channels will publish their first exit polls, providing an initial picture of the projected distribution of Knesset seats, the balance of power between the political blocs and the candidates’ chances of forming the next government.
But once again, the big question is not simply which party will win the largest number of seats. The real test will be whether either bloc can secure a majority of 61 Knesset members, enabling it to form a government. In a political system where every seat can change the picture, even a small shift in the results could determine the outcome of the election.
Beyond the number of seats won by each party, the central focus of election night will be the map of the political blocs. Even a party that finishes in first place could find itself in the opposition if it fails to assemble a parliamentary majority.
One of the key questions is the fate of parties hovering around the electoral threshold. A party entering the Knesset-or failing to make it into parliament-could significantly alter the distribution of seats and the prospects for forming a government.
Meanwhile, party headquarters will be closely monitoring the differences between the exit polls. A result giving one bloc a clear majority could signal the political direction as early as tonight, while a tight race could leave Israel on edge until the final votes are counted.
The exit polls are only the beginning
Despite the drama surrounding the release of the exit polls, it is important to remember that they are not official results. The polls are based on statistical estimates and may change as the vote count progresses.
The final results will be determined only after the counting is completed, including the votes cast in double envelopes, which could affect the distribution of seats and the fate of parties polling close to the electoral threshold.
In any case, Israel faces a long night of political drama. After a day in which millions of Israelis headed to the polls, the big question is not only who won the election, but who will manage to turn the results into a political victory and form the next government.